Playing $2/$5 at Fallsview yesterday. New table just opened, we'd been playing for about an hour or so.

Villain in this hand is unknown to me. I've played semi-regularly in this room, but hadn't been there in about 4-5 months and don't recall ever playing with him before. Early 20s Asian male. When the table was opening, he pulled out a bag from his pocket with no less then 15K in chips, dug out $500 and put the bag back in his pocket. Which lead me to believe he was a reg. Seems to be good/competent, but maybe a little spewy/lagish. He had raised quite a few hands, typically for $30-35ish even is he was cold opening.

Only hand I saw villain show down so far was against another guy with $~300 stack, villain opened in EP, I believe it was the SB that 3/bet and they got it in pre. Villain had 1010 and held vs AK.

I definitely play lagish myself, don't know how much villain has seen, but he is definitely thinking. He's seen me raise/4bet pre, and win a pot with a c/bet on the flop. I had AA FWIW, but didn't show. I open a lot IP, and raise limpers IP a lot as well. I also call often in position.

Effective stacks between us are ~$850 or so.

The hand;

One limp and villain raises from MP to $40, player on my right calls (typically bad MAWG, plays face up mostly), I call with Ac9c from the CO, blinds fold.

Pot $127 - Flop Jc10h2c, Villain c/bets $75, MAWG folds, I elect to call. I contemplated raising, but I don't think I fold out much of his value range on the flop with a raise.

Pot $277 - Turn 7d, Villain checks. I elect to bet here for a few reasons. I don't think villain can be too strong here, OP at best. Definitely AK/AQ in his range, maybe some combos of KQ and specifally KcQc (although I'd expect him to barrel it here). I also think 89s is definitely in my range, as are 2pr hands, and a lot of draws etc. I bet $160, villain thinks for 30s or so, then calls.

When he calls, I definitely weight his range towards OPs, AA discounted a little b/c I have an Ace.

Pot $597 - River 5s. Villain checks. I definitely think I'm behind here, and that he got sticky with QQ/KK/AA. Maybe an AJ/KJ type hand. I bet $270. I wish I could say I put a lot of thought into that number, but I thought something ~1/2 pot was what I would have done for value.

Villain tanks....

EDIT.

Disclaimer, I couldn't remember the exact cards. I definitely had clubs, this was early in my session and I didn't take note, but the basics are there. I'm pretty close. I definitely turned a straight draw, and the rive was a brick.

pre is a spew

you flopped really good - turn is decent - river changes nothing - and is a spew imo

i'd bet river if it was a Q98KA or club

If you are LAGish, why are you calling with A9s? For a LAG, A9s is a raising hand in position. As played, I'd bet the river. Nothing got there and you have represented TP or better the whole way. I'd go a bit more to look like a value bet or much less to look like a suck bet. Probably error towards more.

Not sure about your games but $40 over 1 limp is a huge raise where I play, which is indicative of a really strong range. Because of that I would fold pre.

Flop is ok if he doesn't cbet air here and because of his strong pre range. Turn is fine. River is spew because so many draws missed that he's going to hero just about any pair here. Just check back and hope he was drawing too since you beat most draws.

I think he's making a mistake giving you a free card on the turn. I'd take advantage of his mistake and check-behind.

Then I'd bet every "scare card" on the river whether it improves us or not.

There might have been a limp in there I'm forgetting, like I said, his standard open was like 35ish. So not a huge sizing tell.

It's not uncommon to see $30-35 opens at fallview. I tend to keep my raises much smaller, usually 15-25 depending on position and number of limpers.

*Grunch*

Fold pre since it's an unusually large open. If he opened to $20, it'd be closer to a call. 3-betting also isn't terrible...I'd say fold>3-bet>call.

Flop: So if we're raising JJ (3 combos), 1010 (3 combos) and J10s (2 combos), we'd want to also raise about 20 combos of bluffs. We can probably raise all flush draws (about 5 or so combos) and all open ended straight draws. I'd prefer raising flop to flatting. Raise>flat>fold.

Turn: Since we can have 89 for a straight here, I like betting, esp since we picked up the gutshot straight draw, but checking is fine too.

River: If we're betting about half pot, we want to be bluffing 25% of the time or else he can exploit us with his bluff catchers. Since we block 89, I think this is a good bluff candidate...but if we were to bluff all missed draws on this river, we're probably bluffing too much.

Overall, the biggest problem I see with this hand is the only very strong hand we should have on this turn is 89 and there are so few combos of this. If we are always playing 89s like this and its exclusively our value range, we should have only one to two bluff combos to balance. We shouldn't have slow played 2 pair+ on such a draw heavy flop.

Are you never bluffing this river then? Are taking the exact same line with 89s to this river? If the answer to both questions is yes then you can be exploited.

I agree that 98s is our only strong hand in our range on the river with this line (I would raise 9c8c on the flop)

We could also have AJ though which we might be able to get a call from KJ or QJ if villian is loose.

If villian is laggish I really doubt he is c/c overpairs down.

I do like your choice of hands for a bluff on the river because we block AA and 98 but I actually don't think villian ever shows up with those hands.

I think if we bet we should bet a little bigger but I agree with preflop being a fold.

I'd start with thinking about ranges on the flop. What do you think his flop cbet range looks like? I think we can expect a competent reg to be pretty strong firing on this board into two people, and likewise, our perceived range is pretty draw heavy and capped at ~ AJ.

If his flop range is pretty strong, betting the turn becomes less appealing. Your perceived range is still pretty draw-heavy; 98s is of course squarely in that range, but it's just a few combos. Does he think you auto-bet when checked to? If so, his turn check doesn't imply that you have much FE, in which case you really only should be betting if a turn bet sets up a profitable river bet.

I'd give up on the river. One draw in your range that got there vs a bunch that didn't. Plus you have a little bit of SD value (only a little, but he might show up with KQ once in a while).

By not raising flop you are repping just 89 and tp. So if you are targeting overpairs or good jacks to fold it is difficult.

I usually like to bet this river, but this V is UNKNOWN to us so I surrender in this spot. I think he calls whatever amount you bet. To me your hand looks weak.

FWIW, I think I messed up the cards. I really remember turning open ended. But i'm sure the turn was the 7d. The flop may have been, 10c8h2c. It makes a difference, but not a huge difference.

Thanks for the feedback.

Villain did fold, but I wasn't really sure if I necessarily took a great line, or if he just assumed that I was relatively unknown, and must have turned the straight, or 2pr.

I did debate raising the flop, I just don't love the idea of raise/folding here if I make it ~$210ish and he piles. Maybe my thinking there if flawed. I guess the nice thing about raising, is that if he calls, I could either continue my bluff on the turn, or take a free river a large % of the time.

Raising the flop is bad esp when you have position, so ap it's good. I dont really like pre, that's a huge value raise pre from a pro. Turn is good. River i bet even bigger because he only has a bluff catcher at the best and you want to give him a worse price to bluff catch.

My adjustment would be to value bet thin on the river the way the hand played out. Something like AT or better.

I don't think this guy has too many hands in his range on the river that are worse then A10, and calling a vbet

Sorry guys, I thought turn got checked through. I would ship river to get him off strong 1 pair hands. Less than 1/2 pot is giving him really good odds to bluff catch missed draws.