I've been at this table 30-45 minutes, been mostly card dead, so prob have a pretty tight image. Opened once in LP and took it down with no flop, I think that was the only pot I had won. Anyway, villain is directly to my right, is the big stack, and raising pre a fair amount.

One limper, villain raises to 20 in hijack, I am tired of watching him raise, and 3bet QTo to 65, hoping to take it down right there. Others fold, villain calls fairly quickly.

Flop: 6d 5d 3d (I do not have a diamond)

I cbet 100 into 140, expecting to give up if he calls, but he does fairly quickly, again.

Turn: Ad

He checks, I check (probably too quickly, in hindsight)

River: brick

He checks again, I think for maybe 10 seconds and bet 250...

💵🔥

If you're going to bluff, then it has to be on the turn.

You almost have to bluff that turn

1) 30-45 minutes is nothing. Don't start 3-betting light because you're "tired of watching him raise" yet. Maybe he's just had a run of cards.

2) Flop bet is good. He's not calling light here, so we will often take it down. His quick call, though, is usually indicative of a draw.

3) The draw came in! Eff! I'd abort. We'll be getting c/r here often.

4) With two checks after the Ad came in, he's unlikely to have a big diamond. The problem is, he really won't believe that you checked one OTT, so will likely call with basically any diamond. He's turbo-mucking any hand without a diamond to almost any size bet, so no need to bluff so big. Anything that's folding to $250 is folding to $200 for sure, and I might even go smaller as a "post oak" bluff, making it look like we're trying to get a call out of a small diamond. I most likely make it $150 if I somehow got here.

The big problem though, is #1.

Sizing on the river is way too big.

Bet $150 and save the $100 when you get called.

He isn't folding a flush. We're just betting to get him to fold small pairs.

Pretty poor reason to 3 bet a guy.
This line looks super bluffy and V can easily find a call with a pair. I'm fine with cbetting the flop but when you check turn you can't bet river...

Assuming we started with $500?

You can c-bet smaller.

And come on guys, if we're posting in this forum, let's at least try to put villain on some ranges, shall we? That's actually the most important aspect of figuring out what to do.

Villain's pre-flop range to call your 3-bet oop is probably pretty strong but not so strong that he 4-bet oop. So it probably contains a lot of middle to mid-high pocket pairs, some strong broadway, maybe some strong Ax. But I think the pairs pre-dominate.

Maybe something like 77-JJ, KJs+, KQo, QJs, AT-AQ. Maybe wider?

What range continues on the flop?

77-TT (over pairs), flopped flushes, KQo and AT-AQ with a diamond (draws).

50% (3/6) of pocket pair hands contain 1 diamond.

He's not checking/calling a flopped flush on flop or checking turn AND river. So his suited broadway is out. I also don't think he checks turn AND river with a turned very strong flush (i.e. with the broadway KdX or QdX flushes).

So I think his range is very dense with pocket pairs.

By the river, he has, among other hands:
4*6 = 24 pocket pairs 77-99,JJ, 12 with flushes 12 without.
1*3 = 3 pocket pairs TT, 2 with flushes, 1 without.

Among pocket pairs, that's 14 flushes and 13 pairs without flushes that beat you.

So I'm thinking a bluff actually makes plenty of sense here. I would prefer it on the turn because your line looks SO MUCH bluffier on the river. Also, you can get away with a MUCH SMALLER turn bluff because you are threatening the river all-in and communicating that you have a hand that is so strong that you want to massage the pot to get all the chips in. When you bet the river without going all in, you do not communicate anywhere near as much strength, and it's much less scary.

Further, thinking about YOUR range, the A on the turn and the diamonds on the board and the likely strength of your 3-bet range is going to get him to fold a lot of hands here.

Assume he calls all 14 non-nut flushes (he might fold some) and folds all 13 non-flush pocket pairs (he will). That means he'll fold 13/27 = 48% of the time.

Without going through all the math... and I do think you bet too much on the flop... I think you can easily continue the bluff with a reasonable bet size and make it +EV.

But I would bluff the turn man. He just folds less on the river.

By the way, to put a finer point on it, I would say bluff this turn for sure.

You can use somewhat small sizing. Leave a ~1/2-2/3 bullet behind for the river. If villain check/calls turn and checks again on river, I'd at least consider shoving it all in at that point...

But once you check turn behind, do not bluff the river imo.

It's too likely that villain is now going to bluff catch with a hand like 8d8x. He knows the exact price as this is the last bet/street. You range also contains more bluffs.

He's opening a lot of hands in position? I thought that was a pretty good reason to bluff-3bet.

Anyway, he seemed decent, my thinking was that he probably puts me on a strong range given my tightness up until now, and AK KK QQ (with a diamond) are a decent chunk of it. Then on the turn I don't want to scare him away with the nuts/near-nuts, so I check behind to get more value on the river (which I want to look like a bluff).

Results:

^^ I'd actually see the turn check as an indication a flush is less probable and the river bet as a likely bluff very possibly with a made hand like JJ-KK, maybe even Ax. The fact that he's possibly sigh folding a non-flush AK because he puts you on exactly 2 hand combos (remaining AxKd) sounds pretty goofy to me. You wonder if he also folds a flush like TxTd following a turn check / river bet. Maybe but probably not. I think you could get him off a hand like that and others with a turn bet + river shove.

+1

If your gonna 3! light, do it with something that isn't getting crushed by his raise range.

As is, QT is dead smack in his range, even if you hit your TPGK, he easily could have you out kicked, not to mention if the flop comes A or K high with a 10, then your just screwed.

Hopefully the bluff worked for you this time, you had the right thought on the flop to shut down, you should have held that thought

Q10 not the greatest hand to be 3!ing imo, but hey at least you haze position.

Villain flats oop instead of 4!, so lets say he rarely has QQ+ so AJo-AKo, A10s+, 66-jj.

You'll get more folds than calls and definitely know where you stand if called, so Cbet looks good.

Turn is dangerous as it leaves you open to c/r but checking back doesn't support a good bluff story for the river.

Betting smaller otr is much better imo as it seems to accomplish the same thing as a larger bet but loses less when called.

Bc F4O said so....