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Old 03-31-2017, 04:09 AM   #1
pocketzeroes
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2/5 - River bet sizing or c/r?

Villain and I are the two most aggressive players at the table. He has been 3betting a fair amount, showed down 68s from 3bet SB. There was one hand where I limped UTG, somebody raised villain 3bet to 85, I cold 4bet to 215, V calls. I lead 400 in a ragged flop and he folds. V was also at the table one hand where I raised with QQ to 30, got called in a bunch of spots. Flop came Ad6d3s I think. Checked through to second to last to act, guy bets 75, folds to me and I check-raise to 210 and he folds and shows AJ and I show my queens.

Villain and I are both pretty deep - around the 2500-3k range.

Otth:

Limped pot 5 way I think, villain had overlimped in MP. Hero checks his option in BB with Js8s.

Flop ($25) is 975r with 7s. (Giving hero double gutter).

Hero leads $20. One guy calls. Villain raises to $75. Hero calls. Other guy folds.

Turn ($195) is Ts. (Giving me the nuts + gutshot straight flush draw).

Hero overbets pot for $250. I figured there's a small chance we both have the nuts and I'm on a free roll getting it in. I didn't want to x/r, because I felt like that would look even stronger than an overbet and I really didn't want to let it check through. If V has a set, I want him to pay to draw now. V tanks and looks at the pot and is counting money before finally making the call. At this point I feel like V has a set, and I think V realizes that he is likely drawing for a boat at this point.

River ($695) is 4x.

Hero?
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Old 03-31-2017, 04:28 AM   #2
pixelsmile
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Re: 2/5 - River bet sizing or c/r?

You're almost always betting that river OOP. His calling range is bigger than his betting range
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Old 03-31-2017, 08:18 AM   #3
Okilo
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Re: 2/5 - River bet sizing or c/r?

As played bet river. You've shown bluffs and this is your time to balance that aggression with value


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Old 03-31-2017, 08:41 AM   #4
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Re: 2/5 - River bet sizing or c/r?

As played, $375 river.

I’d c/c flop. Leading into 4 opponents is strong, when raised u r facing a tough decision oop. I’d fold to the raise since all outs are not clean. May not be able to realize equity via backdoor outs.

Turn – I’d go ~2/3 PSB. Really think he limped J8 from MP?
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Old 03-31-2017, 08:48 AM   #5
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Re: 2/5 - River bet sizing or c/r?

A lot of his hands check behind, probably only a set may try to bet if checked to and if he was on a flush draw it's possible he could try to bluff but most likely will give up.
Give him a discount of like $250 again and maybe even 2 pairs will make a crying call, sets will snap call and if he gets frisky, missed draws may sense weakness and raise.
Squeeze the last ounce of value out of him.
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Old 03-31-2017, 10:01 AM   #6
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Re: 2/5 - River bet sizing or c/r?

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Really think he limped J8 from MP?
Probably not, and probably only one of the 3 combos left of J8s if he did, and I think he's often just calling my bet on the flop if that's his hand... But the chance to stack someone for over 500BBs in a limped pot doesn't come around often, so I was hoping...
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Old 03-31-2017, 10:23 AM   #7
problemeliminator
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Re: 2/5 - River bet sizing or c/r?

Quote:
I limped UTG, somebody raised villain 3bet to 85, I cold 4bet to 215, V calls. I lead 400 in a ragged flop and he folds.

V was also at the table one hand where I raised with QQ to 30, got called in a bunch of spots. Flop came Ad6d3s I think. Checked through to second to last to act, guy bets 75, folds to me and I check-raise to 210 and he folds and shows AJ and I show my queens.
I'd love to know what your strategy was with these hands (and why you decided to keep your holdings in the first one secret).

Seems obvious you lead the river...how much of a disaster is it for you if you check to c/r and he checks behind?
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Old 03-31-2017, 10:27 AM   #8
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Re: 2/5 - River bet sizing or c/r?

What about check raising the turn instead? Seems like a better way to get more money in.
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Old 03-31-2017, 11:17 AM   #9
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Re: 2/5 - River bet sizing or c/r?

As played would prefer betting. The turn call caps Vs range at two pairs, flopped sets. I think he would raise with 8-6 and J8 obv. If you check he will most likely check behind on a straightening board. Also: i dont think we should lead flop into a limped pot on that kind of board that hits limping ranges hard. What does your bet achieve? You would rather take a free card there or check call in what will most likely been a multiway pot going into the turn

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Old 03-31-2017, 11:30 AM   #10
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Re: 2/5 - River bet sizing or c/r?

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Originally Posted by problemeliminator View Post
I'd love to know what your strategy was with these hands (and why you decided to keep your holdings in the first one secret).

Seems obvious you lead the river...how much of a disaster is it for you if you check to c/r and he checks behind?
First one (utg) I had JJ so was definitely never folding to V's 3bet... My reasons for limping UTG were mixed; however once V 3bet, I figured I was ahead of his range, but still didn't want to play a big pot with him OOP likely 3way to flop while my range was capped and his was uncapped (I'm normally way against limp RR'ing aces, but think this would've been a reasonable table to do it at, so I figured V would have to keep KK-AA in my range). I'm not quite sure right now what I would've done had he flatted the 400 - we started the hand like 1700-1800 effective, and JJ isn't really a hand I feel great going to the felt with, but I likely would've after the 226 flop (specifically to bluff out QQ, but praying to get 99-TT to hero me).

The hand I had QQ on the Ad6d3x board, it was really just a spot where I saw an ace on a flushing board that was raised to 30 pre and went like 5 way I think. I was immediately done with the hand. However, after that guy bet and it folded to me, my thought was that he probably doesn't have AK or would've likely 3bet me pre given my activity, and I block AQ, and the way he announced 75 (into 150 pot) made me feel confident that he did just have an ace. Also he started the hand with around 800, so I knew my check/raise would put enormous pressure on his stack, and it's just the type of spot where from his perspective "they always have it" (and I do sometimes take this line with AK). Finally I was only betting 210 to win 225, so it needs to work less than 50% of the time. If the ace were not the flushing suit (giving him chance to have TP+FD), I wouldn't have done that.
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Old 03-31-2017, 11:33 AM   #11
jtm1208
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Re: 2/5 - River bet sizing or c/r?

As played, Bomb the river. $575+, maybe even over bet the pot again. If he has a set, I think he is calling. Especially with spades missing out.

I do think I like Check raising the turn though, I think it's highly unlikely he checks back.
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Old 03-31-2017, 12:44 PM   #12
pocketzeroes
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Re: 2/5 - River bet sizing or c/r?

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Originally Posted by jtm1208 View Post
I do think I like Check raising the turn though, I think it's highly unlikely he checks back.
I don't hate a turn check raise... But I think if we want to take away his odds (with implied odds) to drawing to a FH, then we've gotta go pretty big, and it's really hard for that to be a bluff on my end so he'll start folding a lot more on the river, and even finding some big folds to my turn C/R. If I click it back, I'm giving him odds to draw with his sets, and he'll start calling more river bricks, but I still feel like he gets spooked and folds a lot.. At the time i just felt like bomb turn, bet river gets the most money against his range, but no doubt turn C/R will give us the biggest pots going into river.
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Old 03-31-2017, 01:30 PM   #13
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Re: 2/5 - River bet sizing or c/r?

Checking the river is terrible. You can't expect a bet here very often after you've taken a polarizing line.

Our value range already looks like J8, just bomb it and don't get fancy. Bet $1000. A jam would be cool if you don't think he has J8 in his range.
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Old 03-31-2017, 02:54 PM   #14
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Re: 2/5 - River bet sizing or c/r?

Results:
Spoiler:
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Old 10-09-2017, 11:06 AM   #15
Dizzyqtp
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Re: 2/5 - River bet sizing or c/r?

necroing this thread for results b/c I was the villain:

Spoiler:
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Old 10-09-2017, 12:37 PM   #16
pocketzeroes
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Re: 2/5 - River bet sizing or c/r?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dizzyqtp View Post
necroing this thread for results b/c I was the villain:

Spoiler:
Nice fold. Re-reading HH, it would be a weird spot for me to have worse, but I think most villains are paying it off.
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Old 10-09-2017, 01:19 PM   #17
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Re: 2/5 - River bet sizing or c/r?

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Originally Posted by pocketzeroes View Post
Nice fold. Re-reading HH, it would be a weird spot for me to have worse, but I think most villains are paying it off.
thanks - and yeah this line from you is always 68+ imo. I almost just folded the turn but figured all of my boat outs were clean and I would have plenty of IOs in position on the river.

agree you're getting paid almost always vs other villains with my hand. I much prefer a turn x/r to a lead though
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Old 10-09-2017, 01:24 PM   #18
Avaritia
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Re: 2/5 - River bet sizing or c/r?

Flat flop w/55
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Old 10-09-2017, 02:40 PM   #19
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Re: 2/5 - River bet sizing or c/r?

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Originally Posted by Avaritia View Post
Flat flop w/55
eh, yeah I get what you're saying and this deep I definitely don't mind flatting with 55 here, but I do think we miss out on some value when we don't raise.

getting 3-bet sucks, yeah, but my raise size shouldn't narrow ranges to the point that we have to be scared with our hand.
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Old 10-09-2017, 03:40 PM   #20
pocketzeroes
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Re: 2/5 - River bet sizing or c/r?

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Originally Posted by Dizzyqtp View Post
thanks - and yeah this line from you is always 68+ imo. I almost just folded the turn but figured all of my boat outs were clean and I would have plenty of IOs in position on the river.

agree you're getting paid almost always vs other villains with my hand. I much prefer a turn x/r to a lead though
My thought at the time was a x/r here is crazy strong, and I could bomb turn with 88 or 89 or 8T trying to get two pair to fold, perhaps show up with a hand like A9ss... I.e., because of the bigger risk involved, I think it's a lot harder for me to bluff x/r this turn. Still if I continued with any of those hands on the flop, I wouldn't want to give up on turn, and I wouldn't want to play any of those hands as passive x/c. So bomb turn felt like it lets me have a balanced range.. Plus there's at least some frequency of villains spazzing out in your spot and raising turn to my lead with various non-nut hands.

Also, I wouldn't be too sure that this line is always 68+. Against call happy fish, a lot of my lines are going to be nuts or near nuts 100% of the time, but I do make it a point to take those same lines as bluffs occasionally against better players. However, yeah I'm mostly giving up on bluffs when river's a brick.
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Old 10-09-2017, 06:00 PM   #21
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Re: 2/5 - River bet sizing or c/r?

Meanwhile hero how about bet-c, ckc, ck riv.
I had to reread the HH to see you bet-c, lead turn - Just way too easy to play against in a limped pot. Dizzy would have bet bet a lot with the bottom of his value range had you stayed wider.
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Old 10-10-2017, 03:15 PM   #22
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Re: 2/5 - River bet sizing or c/r?

That's well played by both players. I'm impressed with the snap fold on the river.
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Old 10-10-2017, 04:09 PM   #23
pocketzeroes
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Re: 2/5 - River bet sizing or c/r?

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Originally Posted by pocketzeroes View Post
V tanks and looks at the pot and is counting money before finally making the call. At this point I feel like V has a set, and I think V realizes that he is likely drawing for a boat at this point.
Pretty sure I would've x/f'd to a river pair.

Think I should've just checked river and hoped for dizzy to value bet.
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Old 10-10-2017, 04:12 PM   #24
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Re: 2/5 - River bet sizing or c/r?

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Originally Posted by pocketzeroes View Post
Pretty sure I would've x/f'd to a river pair.

Think I should've just checked river and hoped for dizzy to value bet.
I don't think it mattered what you did on the river. He had a set, but was willing to instafold it. He would have just checked down and hoped he was good.
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Old 10-10-2017, 04:45 PM   #25
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Re: 2/5 - River bet sizing or c/r?

I'm just lucky the only good fold I've ever made was documented on 2p2

and that I didn't have 68s this hand
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