Hero is SB. There are two villains in this hand. BB is loose and weak. He started with 1k, and is down to about 550. An orbit ago I triple barreled a value hand and he folded the river. We are friendly but he seems a bit frustrated and ready to make a stand.

Button is very snug, TAG starting with ~1200. He is a possible 5/10 reg. I respect his game. He hasn't run big bluffs and has shown down value hands against other players. I have 3bet him occasionally preflop and he has folded. We haven't played many significant hands. Possibly our only significant hand was a BvB situation where he opened, and i 2x barreled flop and turn before he folded. I cover both.

One limper to Button, who opens to 35. I 3b 120 with AK. BB cold calls, Button calls.

Flop (370): Q94. Hero checks, with the intent to crai. BB jams 425. Button thinks and rejams for 1075 total. Hero? Easy call?

Thoughts - given read on BB, he can be shoving very wide here. Holdings are strongly weighted to Qx, but he did just cold-call the 3b. It's also likely that Button realizes this as well.

We are obviously not worried about BB donking allin (as you said he could be very wide and we absolutely destroy his range), but button reshipping while you with a totally uncapped 3 bettingrange preflop is left to act is somewhat worrisome.

I think button is weighted towards AQ, set of nines type of hand. When he plays tight preflop, that alone narrows his opening range considerably+ the fact that he called a 3 bet from you, in comparison that he have folded to your earlier 3 bets. I also think he have some combos of slowplayed KK/AA in his range in this spot, considering he is in position and the pot will be bloated anyway so he is not giving you guys very good implied odds on him anyway with a flat.

We only play 550 right even though the button jammed for more? No way i am laying this down. If we have the button covered for his 1075 jam, then its gets a little more dicy in my opinion and we have to perform better against buttons rejamming range.

We cover both, so its 1075 to us.

I see now that i mixed up the 550 with the other villains stack, sorry about that.


If so, i think buttons range as a consequence of you having him covered gets somewhat stronger. Like, he have to assume you have a hand youre going to stackoff with a decent percentage of the time when you 3 bet OOP and having a totally uncapped range to both villains- so i dont think he is very light here at all.

It really comes down to how often we are running into 99/QQ, compared to a hand like AQ where our K outs also are live. If you think he is so tight that his range is crowded with sets (and mostly sets), i guess its really really close regarding if we get the right price or not to yolo for it all.

But even so i really cant se us folding this hand due to our massive equity 3 ways.

Against a tight range where we block NFD, it would be interesting for you to pokerstove something like KQ/AQ, AA/KK, JT (probably with clubs), and sets

He really shouldn't have air here given you have a very tight range and BB is all in.

It really looks as if BTN has a set here, probably QQ, but maybe 99. I guess he could have KK, but what else really is he shoving with after your check? Regardless, we are still behind KK (and even AQ). Also, BB could have some of our outs.

As sick as it seems, this is probably a fold. However, in game I think I'd talk myself into gambling -- short discussion -- and call Probably not the best advice, though.

Hmm...this is a tough decision. In game, though, I think I call. BTN doesn't always have to have AQ/KK/sets here. He can also have JTcc/J9cc/QJs/KQ/QTs. BB is weighted towards Qx for sure, and I think BTN probably knows what his image is in your eyes so he thinks he can get you to fold AA/KK/AQ in this spot, so he might be doing it lighter than you think, trying to improve his chances of isolating BB.

I would range him as QQ, 99, JcTc, AQ, KK, AA about in this order of frequency. I think this is a fold.

i expect BTN to be shoving wider than normal here. TAG players that aren't scared money often rejam it in spots like this: short stack is shoving wide, BTN has holdings that he's never folding but definitely doesn't want to flat $500 with given there's a 3rd player, and then Hero has checked and not shown interest in the pot. TAGish players will shove a little wider here to fold out our equity and prevent themselves being opened up to a squeeze or having weird stack to pot with a 2nd villain on the turn, with scare cards possible.

edit*: KQ and QJ are in his range IMO, as is Q9 and the rest of Mr Spyutastic's ranging of him. I'm calling this off.

I wouldn’t sweat ranging people that much. We need almost 38% to call. We have a 35% chance of hitting our flush, and I imagine the times we win with less are outweighed by the times someone boats up.

I'm hard pressed to fold this with the villain descriptions. Call.

BTN has a set here 80% of the time since we block the NFD and AQ the remaining 20% of the time IMO. Which means 80% of the time, our A, K and one/two flush outs are meaningless.

Add some other outs that BB may be holding and we are drawing to hardly 5-7 outs.

I know we intended to CRAI, but I think we must change our plan now given the action.

The only draw I would call in this spot would be JTcc.

Crying fold.

This is incorrect imo, BB has AQ here a laaaaarge % of the time, button can beat AQ, he's almost just telling you that he has 99.

This is a fold for me, ranges for both players are quite narrow. However, calling isn't tremendously -ev.

So ... much ... ranging ... so ... little ... math ...

(My math was a little off, by the way, but the conclusion's still the same).

Just to expand the thoughts a little bit,so if we fold this hand in this spot- we basically will be folding our entire 3 betting range after this action?

If we are folding AK with nutflushdraw here, i guess we are turbomucking KK/AA as well because those hands are pretty much drawing dead to sets? Our only stackoffhand then is topset of Q, as i dont think we are 3 betting 99 that often OOP more than 200 BB deep against good reg on the button.

That might be a correct approach with such heavy action, but i would still be somewhat concerned of us overfolding too many hands of our range in this spot.

I'm not folding AA or KK, especially if I don't hold a club. Our having one of those hands gives BTN a wider range, although KK is close.

The problem with having AKcc here is not only are we behind most of BTN's range, we also have BB who could easily have some of our outs. Heck, we are behind AQ in this scenario and are lucky to have 12 outs.

As I stated, at the table I probably call, but I'm not sure it's the best play.

370 + 425 + 1075 +1075 = 2945

We need 1075 / 2945 = 37% to breakeve

Board: Qc 9c 4d

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 27.119% 27.12% 00.00% 8816 0.00 { AcKc }
Hand 1: 71.413% 71.41% 00.00% 23215 0.00 { QQ, 99 }
Hand 2: 01.467% 01.47% 00.00% 477 0.00 { AQs, AQo }

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 38.276% 38.28% 00.00% 59103 0.00 { AcKc }
Hand 1: 40.024% 34.56% 05.46% 53365 8437.00 { QQ+, 99, AQs, KQs, QJs, Q9s, JcTc, AQo }
Hand 2: 21.700% 16.24% 05.46% 25071 8437.00 { AQs, AQo }

That's all good and well if BB's only possible holding is AQ, but I don't think it is. And I'll bet you can take out Q9 for BTN (and probably KQ and QJ, but those are possible. Hard to believe he jams with them here, though. If he has those hands, he could have KK).

Holy ****ing ****, someone finally did math!!!!

What the stoves show is what would have been apparent to anyone who bothered to do the math (even just doing pot odds and eyeballed the equity): you have to give villains some whack ass ranges in order to get to a marginally +EV call.

Yeah, i mean including hands like QJ is quite optimistic and even KQ is quite optimistic.

Due to description he have been folding pre to heros 3 bets before, and now he is suddenly calling a big 3 bet with a weak reverse implied odds hand like QJ AND reshoving the flop with hero left to act with these 200 BB stacksizes?

Meh, i am not buying that- wishful thinking.

I think this is a tight (and maybe exploitable vs BTN) fold. Yeah we probably have somewhere between 7-10 outs, but the way the hand played out (with the better player over shoving), I would lean more towards 7 as a max (and maybe less if SB donk shoves all flush draws).

Hand looks pretty, but this would be a very thin/gambly call IMO.

No, because their range and our strength is different if we (a) have an overpair and (b) don't block the nut flush draw

This spot had me deeply regretting my check, since a flop lead of $200 would make this much much easier.

Anyway, I felt that Button could definitely do this with AQ, although we block that hand (and suspect that BB is also blocking that). KK and AA are certainly conceivable, as he could've elected to call those IP pre. I wasn't especially worried about QQ, since he likely only has one combo possible if BB is also jamming a Q, plus he may be motivated to 4b QQ multiway targeting a BB jam.

results:

Lol, nice blowup comment by the button stamping you as a ******

But yeah, sucks to lose that big of a pot when youre such a huge fav as he was. I guess results wasnt that surprising, as buttons range likely is strong when he reships.

And i am still unsure about what we do here though, gonna need some more time with this one and play around with ranges/equities a little bit in the weekend.

Not the exact hand I was expecting for BTN, but ouch.