2/5: Raising when we know it will look super strong? - Live Low-stakes No Limit Poker Forum

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2/5: Raising when we know it will look super strong?

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03-12-2019 , 10:35 AM

momo_uk

veteran

Join Date: Sep 2015 Posts: 2,546

Around $300 effective 2/5, Hero opens $15 with T8ss in CO, SB unknown calls, BB unknown min3b to $25, both call.

Flop ($75): As9s2d
Check, Check, Check

Turn ($75): 4s
SB leads $40, BB calls, Hero ?

If we raise, our hand is super face up as a flush (because I'm never raising even 44 on this turn vs 2 players) and we risk both folding but if we call, we may let AxJs, AxQs, AxKs, JJsx, QQsx, KKsx, or sets/2p catch up.

What's the right play here and why? Spoiler below.

Spoiler:

Last edited by momo_uk; 03-12-2019 at 10:46 AM.

Quote

03-12-2019 , 10:48 AM

XtraScratch8

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jan 2019 Posts: 3,578

Jam. You have a vulnerable hand and taking it down here is a fine result.
You also only have $235 after the $40 bet. Anything else is FPS imo.

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03-12-2019 , 10:51 AM

Javanewt

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 12,761

Are you planning to raise/fold? One player just bet the three-to-a-flush, and the other called. What do you think they have?

Everything looks strong, but with three flushes ahead of me vs. two unknowns, I just flat and evaluate river. Would be sick to raise here and have to fold to a re-raise vs. players who could be doing it with worse.

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03-12-2019 , 10:53 AM

Javanewt

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 12,761

Quote:

Originally Posted by XtraScratch8

Jam. You have a vulnerable hand and taking it down here is a fine result.
You also only have $235 after the $40 bet. Anything else is FPS imo.

Why are we jamming? They are rarely calling with worse, and so easily calling with better. Against villains we have some read on, it's fine, but against two unknowns when we hardly have the nuts, I think it's a mistake.

Quote

03-12-2019 , 10:57 AM

momo_uk

veteran

Join Date: Sep 2015 Posts: 2,546

Quote:

Originally Posted by Javanewt

They're both droolers so a higher flush is the least of my concerns.. I'm never raise/folding with these stack sizes... my only concern is how to get the maximum in this spot..

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03-12-2019 , 11:25 AM

fishsoup

journeyman

Join Date: Mar 2018 Posts: 267

if you wanted to deny equity the time to do it was the flop I like a bet in position with a middling draw. You can save your FD flop checks for your suited Ks hands to flush over flush someone

Ap on the turn just smooth call and see a river. our hand is middling strength after a lead and a call from 2 unknowns, perfect for calling. if these guys really are droolers they have a lot more random Q5ss and K2ss that crush us. This raise is too thin

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03-12-2019 , 11:32 AM

XtraScratch8

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jan 2019 Posts: 3,578

Quote:

Originally Posted by Javanewt

Calling here is a bigger mistake.
So our option is raise or jam.
We have $235 after calling the $40 raise and the pot is $197 if we only call.
Are we ever really raise/folding here? That would be putrid.
It’s also important to note that the ace is a spade.
I’m not worried about getting called by better here.
To worry about that would be FPS and MUBSY.
Jam is best.

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03-12-2019 , 11:33 AM

XtraScratch8

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jan 2019 Posts: 3,578

Quote:

Originally Posted by momo_uk

They're both droolers so a higher flush is the least of my concerns.. I'm never raise/folding with these stack sizes... my only concern is how to get the maximum in this spot..

You get the max by jamming.

Quote

03-12-2019 , 11:42 AM

fishsoup

journeyman

Join Date: Mar 2018 Posts: 267

Quote:

Originally Posted by XtraScratch8

You get the max by jamming.

what is calling our jam?

Quote

03-12-2019 , 11:45 AM

#10

Avaritia

Confirmed 2500 hour haver

Join Date: Feb 2013 Posts: 12,248

Momo, every single one of your threads fits one of two themes:

1) You are afraid to raise your value because everyone will fold

2) You are afraid to bluff because no one ever folds

Every. Single. Thread.

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03-12-2019 , 11:53 AM

#11

Munga30

veteran

Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 2,699

Bet. The. Flop.

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03-12-2019 , 12:07 PM

#12

Javanewt

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 12,761

Quote:

Originally Posted by momo_uk

They're both droolers ...

Maybe add this to the OP next time instead of that they are unknowns. It actually makes a difference.

Regardless, you are still getting called only by better if you jam. (And KQss, KJss, QJss are easily in their ranges -- almost more so if they are droolers. The droolers I know play K5ss.)

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03-12-2019 , 12:11 PM

#13

canadiasian

journeyman

Join Date: Jun 2018 Posts: 227

Min 3-bet and flat call flop with the As on flop means much less likely for BB to have a better flush than yours.

You are likely ahead on the Turn, but potentially at risk of being outdrawn.

Raising on the Turn is correct because you want a single higher spade to pay you now while he is behind.

If you flat the Turn, how do you play a River spade or card that pairs the board? Flatting Turn means letting them see a card absolutely for free, getting value from you when they hit, and folding correctly when they miss.

Spoiler:

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03-12-2019 , 12:18 PM

#14

BlindingLaser

adept

Join Date: Dec 2004 Posts: 768

Quote:

Originally Posted by Avaritia

+1 to this (the general concept, I'm just back after a long hiatus and don't know that you're doing this precisely, but I would absolutely believe that you're doing this).

Look at it this way, if you're calling here because you don't want to lose them, then if you ever end up with K

here then you should crack it to $140, because apparently they're never calling you here when you raise!

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03-12-2019 , 12:20 PM

#15

johnnyBuz

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 7,563

Quote:

Originally Posted by Avaritia

/thread

1. Why are you $300 effective?

2. Why are you not betting flop? You have T-hi, a flush draw and a 3 card straight that can turn OESD on an additional 6 cards, plus an Axx board that you can rep the ace on.

Your mental game is completely shot.

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03-12-2019 , 12:29 PM

#16

samo

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2010 Posts: 4,251

Hmmm … just open fold pre. With 60 bbs eff, you are looking for premiums/big cards to double up. Calling a 3b vs. an unknown for 9% of stack with T8 is leaking.

As played, just gii. Strong or not, you are short-stacked.

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03-12-2019 , 12:43 PM

#17

fishsoup

journeyman

Join Date: Mar 2018 Posts: 267

I didn't realize you're only 60bb.. fold T8s. AP, mandatory flop bet

Quote:

Originally Posted by canadiasian

I disagree with almost all the logic here

Quote

03-12-2019 , 12:47 PM

#18

Gravity Well

centurion

Join Date: Dec 2017 Posts: 131

I like a smallish raise on the turn to about $100. Jam any non-spade river.

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03-12-2019 , 12:51 PM

#19

canadiasian

journeyman

Join Date: Jun 2018 Posts: 227

Quote:

Originally Posted by fishsoup

I didn't realize you're only 60bb.. fold T8s. AP, mandatory flop bet

I disagree with almost all the logic here

If I read OP correctly, there was a lead by SB on Turn and 1 caller from BB, with Hero left to act.

I discounted BB having a flush based on action.

It's possible SB has a flush, but also possible that he is leading given that neither BB nor Hero showed any aggression on the flop - pf raisers/3! will c-bet a flopped FD most of the time.

I agree with folding pf.

Please be more specific with how you disagree with my logic.

Quote

03-12-2019 , 02:57 PM

#20

snowman

old hand

Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 1,747

Quote:

Originally Posted by johnnyBuz

/thread

1. Why are you $300 effective?

2. Why are you not betting flop? You have T-hi, a flush draw and a 3 card straight that can turn OESD on an additional 6 cards, plus an Axx board that you can rep the ace on.

Your mental game is completely shot.

time change must have messed up my mind
because +1 to this

Quote

03-12-2019 , 03:27 PM

#21

XtraScratch8

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jan 2019 Posts: 3,578

Quote:

Originally Posted by XtraScratch8

Quote:

Originally Posted by fishsoup

what is calling our jam?

Sets, two pairs, A-ks or A-qs, KxKs, maybe QXQs.
In my game min-raising is often QQ+ (bad, i know).
Taking it down on the turn isn’t really bad anyway.
It is also possible that I just don’t care about these spots and shouldn’t have contributed in the first place. But I think raise is mandatory, and if there’s a higher flush, c’est la vie. I reload and don’t care. I would top off before this hand happened anyway.
What do you think is best here?

Quote

03-12-2019 , 03:28 PM

#22

XtraScratch8

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jan 2019 Posts: 3,578

Oh, lower flushes call as well I would assume.

Quote

03-12-2019 , 04:47 PM

#23

Playbig2000

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 11,322

what do you do if you flat the turn and another spade comes otr? Are you folding to a bet? If you're so sorry they both folded, what if they both called and another spade comes otr? I kno u wanted to double up but you can't get a double up with every made hand. Don't slow play with such a small little stack. Also you should have at least 100 bb's to be playing these speculative hands.

Quote

03-12-2019 , 06:42 PM

#24

momo_uk

veteran

Join Date: Sep 2015 Posts: 2,546

Quote:

Originally Posted by Avaritia

I know, right? Why am I like this?

Quote

03-12-2019 , 06:45 PM

#25

momo_uk

veteran

Join Date: Sep 2015 Posts: 2,546

Quote:

Originally Posted by johnnyBuz

Why should I bet flop into 2 players, one of whom minraised pre and could easily be slowplaying AA and open myself up to being xraised? Might as well just take a free card???

Quote

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