Hero is known to villain as a regular winning player, TAG, smart, observant, confident and probably the best player at the table (not going to lie). Image is not too aggro (not auto raising my button, more tight than aggressive pre but when I'm involved in a hand I could put pressure when handreading allows).

Villain is asian, mid to late 30's regular, way below break even player (loser), seen him over the past few months on the weekends. Friendly with hero when he sits next to him, never talks about the game or strategy, can't recall if I've seen him 3bet pre before, range is fairly wide in late position (any two broadways, suited aces, connectors, etc).




OTTH

Villain CO 460
Hero SB 2K
Button MAWH straight up as they come. Working on his tablet doing some kind of work. Average aggression, not a nit by any means.

Pre: two MP limps. Villain in CO limps. Button raises to 25 Hero 3bets to 85 in the SB. Folds to the CO who shoves. Button folds. Hero says "how much". Dealer says 375 more.

Hero?

This is really close

If you don't recall him 3 or 4betting before then I probably lean to fold. If you've really never seen him 3b over a few weeks of play snap fold

With 110ish dead in the pot a call can't be too bad either though if you think he can do this with ak or worse sometimes

This seems like a fold and I don't think it's really close. Limp 4 bets are KK+ exclusively for anyone not a maniac. I'm sure he turned over something stupid but I'd be surprised.

I fold.

Getting 3:2 with QQ against KK+, AK is only breakeven (i.e. the same EV as folding, which has lower variance). We have no information that V is doing this wider than KK+, AK and he might not even do this with AK.

are u serious? snap call not even close

If he limped UTG and 4-bet shoved, I probably fold. However, he limped from the CO. If he had AA/KK, he'd be taking a huge risk limping from late position to set up a limp/rr. I think a lot of times this is a hand like 88-JJ trying to take it down now. That said, I do think he shows up with AA or KK here some, but I'm calling anyway.

call for sure. what did u do, what did he have

Unless you have seen him limp/shove big pairs this is a call. Villain usually has a middle pair that figures it's more likely you have two over cards then a higher pair, sometimes AK that figures they are committed. The chance you will run into AA/KK is small and only slightly higher then the chance you run into some spazz bluff. More likely you are way ahead then way behind.

+1. I fold QQ in this spot. DON'T SHOW!

I'm interested in the range you're putting the CO limp/4b shove on. Care to share?

Misread action. Thought it was an EP limp shove.

A while ago I would have said snap it off. Since then Ive seen multiple unknowns do this with AA.

So now I still say fold but it is more likely that he has some junk in CO. First time I fold and make a note.

I wonder if the button being "straight up as they come" probably has a very A/K heavy range and can be used to discount AA/KK from the CO range.

my best guess is that 33% of BTNs range will contain either an A/K. (how to use this info mathematically im not sure, i guess 1/3 of the time CO has only at maximum 50% of one of these combos)

I have to imagine hes played enough poker to understand that with 2 limpers, BTN and blinds behind limping AA/KK is a good way to get cracked.

we getting like 1.5 -1 so need 40% equity right?

so unless we can decide that he 100% has AA/KK here and never anything else we need to call.

My guess is that he probably has some kind of crazy spew factor in there and all of the above leads to me to think calling is correct.

When a live player, that you have history with, goes 5-460 and you're not immediately sure what do to, then it's a just a super easy EBF. Reason being, you should know by now if he has enough 'I don't know what to do with TT/JJ/AK, I shove' at this stack size OR if he usually plays deeper which would allow him to widen his gii range at <100bb OR if there is some gameflow condition/tilt factor at work... Any of which would make QQ a much cleaner call.

On the surface, it seems just so damn anti-math to fold a hand this high in your 3b range with all that equity for 75bb, but given you aren't snapping this, that means you know his line is just so damn rare/strong that all hands <KK can be folded for this amount.

There is some eff stack size at which you autocall, and it probably isn't too far off either, but it just isn't that close for me given above.

I don't think card removal has a great enough impact in this spot. It's worth noting and certainly should be part of the process, but given info on BTN, there just isn't enough there to start legitamately removing hands from main Vs range.

wat?

We actually dont really need all that much!

QQ VS AA/KK/TT (TT for random PP ship) is like 39% equity, so the ability to add one or two spew things or subtract just one A or K from the deck is a big shift!

I defend the the pure lolness of AA/KK taking this line coupled with the freq% at which BTN has folded an A or K make this a call.

This is a fold unless you can talk him into showing one card. Then it's a fold too.

Exploit by folding becasue you have enough info that his limp-4b range is QQ+

I'm less likely to fold QQ here if I had zero history with someone as there's just too many population plays here that would make folding our equity borderline terrible.

First I'd puke, fold, and plot vengeance when you're in position and with the nuts.

Players like this can be easily trapped when they have a straight/flush and you have the nuts.


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Fold, AINEC.

IMO no hand better than QQ ever limp/jams the cutoff unless they table is super aggro and he is expecting a raise. You have stated you aren't auto aggro and neither is button. Call here and expect to see mid-strong PP or some kind of weird AJ AQ trying to pick up the pot.

Calling it off here

This was my thinking as well. I asked myself what could he possibly limp with from the CO and then shove over my 3bet. I was thinking he would show up with 77, 88, 99, AK, AKs, AQs.

He knows I'm a serious player who might be FOS - he's seen me 3bet plenty of times.



Results:

Hero called. Villain seemed unhappy but when it was his turn to show, he flipped over Ace Ace.

Obv horrible to limp aces in that spot with no aggression behind him but it is what it is. I agree with others that I did make a bad call, most likely.

Not that it matters, but the board ran out dry with like a 9 high, so the money would have gone in anyway but of course it has nothing to do with anything.

This...

...is a bit different than this...

The new info would have made it a bit closer for me, as it could obv widen things a touch and maybe upped the hail-Mary w 99+\AKo frequency.
But when a non aggro guy executes a 100bb limp shove over a 3b, with btn 5x 2b left to act, with no tilt factor in play, it's just so often the nuts.

nh sir