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2/5 QQ in a spot 2/5 QQ in a spot

02-13-2018 , 06:33 PM
2-5.
Hero stack = 1800
MP unknown = 500
BUT omc = 130
Hero UTG QQhd raise to 20, MP calls, BUT calls.
3 ways
(67) Flop J84hhx
Hero bets 40, MP calls, BUT jams 110. Hero?

Jamming it in here is my first instinct just to isolate the short stack. But it’s gonna be pretty gross if mp has 2pair+
He might even slow play a set here foreseeing this outcome with the short stack.

Is there merit to just calling?


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2/5 QQ in a spot Quote
02-13-2018 , 08:30 PM
What does OMC have? Or what does he shove with that you beat? If he is fishy enough to show up with AJ and a lot of draws then OK but against a real OMC I might even find a fold because sets make up so much of his range for the call preflop/shove flop. It's terrible play but if the OMC was good he would have folded or shoved preflop.

If I'm willing to get it in on this flop then I probably go ahead and shove. If you flat call the pot will be too big to fold to an unknown villain's stack. He can have too many draws in his range.
2/5 QQ in a spot Quote
02-13-2018 , 08:37 PM
Not a chance I'm folding. The OMC can easily have AJ or much worse here. I cant count the number of times Ive seen an OMC playing a $300 or so stack and after missing hand after hand he stops putting more money on the table and gets short stacked, doesnt reload and then decides to take a stand with something like 99 on a board like this.

A fold is not happening.

I think I reraise to $200
2/5 QQ in a spot Quote
02-13-2018 , 09:01 PM
If MP calls $200 the warning bells should ring loudly.

If not, we are successfully isolated, mission accomplished.

And we saved about $240 (compared to shoving) if MP has us beat.
2/5 QQ in a spot Quote
02-13-2018 , 10:42 PM
If we raise to 200 and MP calls, pot will be 130 + 200 + 200 = 530 with 300 back. Are we really folding to future action getting nearly 3:1 on a call against an unknown? What if he bets something like 150?

If V jams over our 200, we'll be faced with that decision immediately. On this board, are we confident V isn't sticking it in with a good draw (T9, AhXh, etc)?

I get warning bells idea, but I don't think they're much good in this case. I think we're either buying a ticket to the river or dumping it now.

I actually don't hate a fold here. If MP has us beat (or outdraws us) we're pretty much going to get stacked. If he doesn't have much, we're going to go HU with shorty (who's still allowed to have sets in his range). Healthy dollop of RIO there.

I think the problem with flatting is that we'll be OOP and there are a ton of turn cards we're not going to want to see. The pot will be protected, so MP probably won't bluff, but I'm not a huge fan of putting in one-third of effectives and then folding if he does bet, especially after we've only called the flop and then checked the turn. If V checks it back, he's gotten himself a free card, which probably isn't a good result for us.

I think it's a fold or jam decision and I actually think either is a reasonable line to take. I'd glance to the left to see whether I could get a live read on MP. Then I'd pretty much just guess and pick one.
2/5 QQ in a spot Quote
02-13-2018 , 11:33 PM
Valid points ^^

Sometimes it really is "guess and pick one".

It is harder to make a hand than miss a hand.

Sometimes that favors the "$200 and evaluate".

But if we are going to guess and pick one, some might say that "$200 and evaluate" is cheaper than guessing "wrong" ... unless the remaining Villain is going to play back at us... but at 1/2 "they don't play back" ... unless they do...

The OMC part of me wants to guess for $200 instead of shoving. Your mileage may vary.
2/5 QQ in a spot Quote
02-14-2018 , 10:08 AM
Not much, I think your plan to iso is correct, stacks will be fairly awkward on the turn if villain flats behind
2/5 QQ in a spot Quote
02-14-2018 , 10:12 AM
Weird and interesting spot. I think there is merit to all three lines depending on dynamics.

I think the fold is the worst option. I mean we are getting almost 4-1 to call $70 with an OP and a BDFD and BDSD. Those are insanely good odds to peel regardless of what MP does.

Shoving seems bad as all it really accomplishes is folding out the hands in MP's range that we crush. I suppose it could fold out some draws that we would like to fold out, but so could a smaller raise if he is competent. Clearly he snaps us with 2P+.

The small raise has merit too as it can let us get away if MP shoves over us. That saves us $$ in bad spots. But I just don't see it adding to our EV all that much against an unknown and it almost commits us given 40%+ of our stack will be in.

I actually like calling here due to our relative position vs MP. We can call, see what he does (he could fold you know) and then re-evaluate again. Yes it gives incredible odds to MP to come along with almost all his range but given that we may be beat in at least one spot and we likely aren't going to get monster draws to fold anyway, it protects our stack while potentially allowing us to proceed. Maybe we bink a great turn card (like 9orT) or a Q.

I just don't think our hand has enough current value versus an all-in and MP to be more aggro here, but hate folding too.
2/5 QQ in a spot Quote
02-14-2018 , 12:15 PM
Case summed it up nicely - I think this is a fold or jam spot.

And I can't see myself folding, BTN can have any Jx, and MP's range is super wide with both draws and value.

Wager all your betting units.
2/5 QQ in a spot Quote
02-14-2018 , 01:28 PM
I'd probably call. I think MP would raise 88 and 44 here because of the straight and flush draws, and he should be 3 betting JJ, KK, and AA, so we're almost always ahead of him. However, if we 3 bet the flop I don't see him calling any worse hands with such shallow stacks (he'd probably let the NFD go unless hes a gambler). Calling allows him to bluff with some missed draws or possible think AJ might be good enough to value bet.
2/5 QQ in a spot Quote

      
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