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Old 05-27-2010, 10:02 PM   #1
KneedUrDough
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$2/$5 QQ OTB vs. UTG Raise, a Flat & a 50bb Shove

I'm still playing so this will be brief...

V1 -UTG- (~$775) Very, very tight
V2 -UTG+1 (~$400) Loose-passive
V3 -LP- (~$250) Loose-monkey (2nd Re-buy in 30min)
Hero -BTN- ($1750+) LAG'ish (I am attempting to slowdown but it's a process lol)

$2/$5 No Limit Hold'em - Fallsview - 6:30pm - 10 Handed

Hero OTB w/QsQc
V1 raises to $35, V2 calls $35, 3 folds, V3 raises to $253 and is all-in, fold, Hero?
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Old 05-27-2010, 10:28 PM   #2
popeyesretreat
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Re: $2/$5 QQ OTB vs. UTG Raise, a Flat & a 50bb Shove

Quote:
Originally Posted by KneedUrDough View Post
I'm still playing so this will be brief...

V1 -UTG- (~$775) Very, very tight
V2 -UTG+1 (~$400) Loose-passive
V3 -LP- (~$250) Loose-monkey (2nd Re-buy in 30min)
Hero -BTN- ($1750+) LAG'ish (I am attempting to slowdown but it's a process lol)

$2/$5 No Limit Hold'em - Fallsview - 6:30pm - 10 Handed

Hero OTB w/QsQc
V1 raises to $35, V2 calls $35, 3 folds, V3 raises to $253 and is all-in, fold, Hero?
With QQ you really do not want another player in the hand, I really don't think you'll get one but I still would raise, take it out of their minds. I really do not see KK or AA from the 2nd guy and the first you have to take the chance, just raise it up and go head to head.
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Old 05-27-2010, 10:33 PM   #3
btortori
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Re: $2/$5 QQ OTB vs. UTG Raise, a Flat & a 50bb Shove

This is a tough spot... I def think you are ahead of the V3 who is ai but the problem is the original UTG raiser. I would probably isolate here and hope V1 doesn't wake up with AA or KK. Also I'm not really concerned with V2 either so really it's whether or not you are ahead of V1
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Old 05-27-2010, 10:40 PM   #4
KneedUrDough
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Re: $2/$5 QQ OTB vs. UTG Raise, a Flat & a 50bb Shove

V1 has ~$760 (152bb)
V1 has ~$385 (77bb)
Pot is $290 (58bb)

Minimum raise allowed would be $218 (to $471 or 94.5bb) so if V1 shoves we can't fold
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Old 05-27-2010, 10:49 PM   #5
Percula
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Re: $2/$5 QQ OTB vs. UTG Raise, a Flat & a 50bb Shove

Call and see what happens.
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Old 05-27-2010, 11:15 PM   #6
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Re: $2/$5 QQ OTB vs. UTG Raise, a Flat & a 50bb Shove

A very, very tight players utg 7x opening range is what? I'm gonna guess JJ+ & AK. If you raise he probably dumps his JJ and maybe AK depending on how well he recognizes that you view him as being extremely tight. If you flat the 3bet he probably either calls or folds JJ and AK and ships KK/AA. I think this is a spot where I'd muck my QQ. Raising seems pretty spewy against his range, I don't like raising with the hopes that my opponent doesn't have one of the hands he most likely has.
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Old 05-27-2010, 11:37 PM   #7
KneedUrDough
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Re: $2/$5 QQ OTB vs. UTG Raise, a Flat & a 50bb Shove

JJ+ and AK (V1's probable range)

AA or KK continue (I have QQ)

35 possible hands / 12 continue for sure (~66% fold) (~71% fold if u add TT)

...if I shove I need V1 (and V2) to fold ~73% of the time to show a profit (and beat V3)

is my math right? can somebody check it?
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Old 05-28-2010, 04:07 AM   #8
smallfish69
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Re: $2/$5 QQ OTB vs. UTG Raise, a Flat & a 50bb Shove

How do u check these numbers? I use pokercruncher for preflop equity vs range but don't think it does this type of calculation. Is there a app or program that does this type of calculation?
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Old 05-28-2010, 06:43 AM   #9
KneedUrDough
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V1 has ~$740 (148bb)
V1 has ~$365 (73bb)
Pot is $330 (66bb)

Minimum raise allowed would be $218 (to $471 or ~94bb) so if V1 shoves we can't fold

-----

JJ+ and AK (V1's probable range)

AA or KK continue (I have QQ)

35 possible hands / 12 continue for sure (~66% fold) (~71% fold if u add TT)

...if I shove I need V1 (and V2) to fold ~70% of the time to show a profit (and beat V3)

is my math right? can somebody check it?

-----

^^^ sm. corrections made^^^
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Old 05-28-2010, 07:46 AM   #10
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Re: $2/$5 QQ OTB vs. UTG Raise, a Flat & a 50bb Shove

Thats tough, its really tempting to just call for me but I would hate for UTG to flat the raise as well.
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Old 05-28-2010, 08:02 AM   #11
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Re: $2/$5 QQ OTB vs. UTG Raise, a Flat & a 50bb Shove

Does V3 3 bet shove with worse? How many times this session has V3 done it? If he is the type of player to slow play he probably wouldn't shove with AA or KK. Did you plan on raising V1 originally? Did V1 show any emotion when V3 shoved? If I was in this spot I would be focusing on the reaction of V1.

35 is a very large opening raise. Most of the time when I play at this limit it means the raiser has JJ but if the table has been very loose PF he could be stronger.

As played I am shipping it, it doesn't seem like either player, based on bet sizing, wants a lot of action.
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Old 05-28-2010, 10:02 AM   #12
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Re: $2/$5 QQ OTB vs. UTG Raise, a Flat & a 50bb Shove

Fold

You have no money in there.

I doubt either raise is polarized. Your catching the very top of their ranges here. Especially first villain. If last to act I'd say call. I would hate the fold but its necessary.
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Old 05-28-2010, 03:18 PM   #13
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Re: $2/$5 QQ OTB vs. UTG Raise, a Flat & a 50bb Shove

I'm not that worried about V2 and am even less worried about V3 (he would play KK or AA a little slower I believe.) I am really worried about V1 as I've been playing with him a lot over the last few days (he's in town from Montreal for his wife's friends funeral.) He's a retired lawyer that is staying in one of the nicest hotels in Niagara but he isn't loose with his money on the table. He plays to win (for sport) and chooses not to play $5/$10 because he thinks the players are more skilled than him so he's self aware. I think he plays pretty well but is rather (leaning towards too) nitty.

Can I just call here (folding if he shoves) or is that just terrible? What would I do if he just calls? Just don't feel right now does it? It's got to be a shove or a fold IMO.
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Old 05-28-2010, 03:55 PM   #14
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Re: $2/$5 QQ OTB vs. UTG Raise, a Flat & a 50bb Shove

Quote:
Originally Posted by KneedUrDough View Post
I'm not that worried about V2 and am even less worried about V3 (he would play KK or AA a little slower I believe.) I am really worried about V1 as I've been playing with him a lot over the last few days (he's in town from Montreal for his wife's friends funeral.) He's a retired lawyer that is staying in one of the nicest hotels in Niagara but he isn't loose with his money on the table. He plays to win (for sport) and chooses not to play $5/$10 because he thinks the players are more skilled than him so he's self aware. I think he plays pretty well but is rather (leaning towards too) nitty.

Can I just call here (folding if he shoves) or is that just terrible? What would I do if he just calls? Just don't feel right now does it? It's got to be a shove or a fold IMO.
The odds of QQ against a over pair is close to 50:1, he can be opening with so many hands from pocket 8's up to big suited connectors, did you look at him for a read? When I am in a hand I always look to the players that acted already, their guards are down, they don't think anyone is looking at them so it is a good time to get a accurate read. The only way I am not raising here is if the UTG showed excitement about the raise.
If you had more information it is easier to get away from QQ, There is just one re-raise and it is a scared re-raise, if not he wouldn't have shoved. So IMO you have him beat and are racing at worst. With the UTG it is time to gamble, so gamble on, it is only chips, the casino is full of them.
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Old 05-28-2010, 04:10 PM   #15
baconn
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Re: $2/$5 QQ OTB vs. UTG Raise, a Flat & a 50bb Shove

This is Fallsviews? $35 isn't that strong of a raise. You are ahead of V3 most of the time here when he shoves. So the real question is will V1 and V2 get out of the way? If you are calling, shove it and pray V1 and V2 doesn't have AA/KK.
However, I could probably find a fold here with QQ.
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Old 05-28-2010, 04:16 PM   #16
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Re: $2/$5 QQ OTB vs. UTG Raise, a Flat & a 50bb Shove

Quote:
Originally Posted by KneedUrDough View Post
I'm not that worried about V2 and am even less worried about V3 (he would play KK or AA a little slower I believe.) I am really worried about V1 as I've been playing with him a lot over the last few days (he's in town from Montreal for his wife's friends funeral.) He's a retired lawyer that is staying in one of the nicest hotels in Niagara but he isn't loose with his money on the table. He plays to win (for sport) and chooses not to play $5/$10 because he thinks the players are more skilled than him so he's self aware. I think he plays pretty well but is rather (leaning towards too) nitty.

Can I just call here (folding if he shoves) or is that just terrible? What would I do if he just calls? Just don't feel right now does it? It's got to be a shove or a fold IMO.
I think your range on UTG is too narrow. Having played with this type of player many many hours a couple of things stick out in relation to this situation.

First while they are there to compete and learn/better themselves they are highly active mentally, and makes them slip up on their nitty play, they get bored too. They recover very quickly too. They are also smart enough to know what their perceived image is and to take advantage of it.

With this new information, you can never call here. The villain can ship it with a wider range than you think, he can force you to fold all but KK+. He can flat you and bet any flop and you have to go away unless you strike gold.

So in my mind the question becomes now if we want to RR or shove here... Or to put it another way... Do we want to invite variance by inducing a hero call from V1 or V2 or isolate the SS?
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Old 05-29-2010, 02:55 PM   #17
popeyesretreat
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Re: $2/$5 QQ OTB vs. UTG Raise, a Flat & a 50bb Shove

Ok, long enough, what did you do? Did you fold, call or raise?
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Old 05-29-2010, 03:26 PM   #18
KneedUrDough
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Re: $2/$5 QQ OTB vs. UTG Raise, a Flat & a 50bb Shove

Spoiler:
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Old 05-29-2010, 04:54 PM   #19
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Re: $2/$5 QQ OTB vs. UTG Raise, a Flat & a 50bb Shove

My instinct would to puke fold since we are not getting called by JJ
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Old 05-29-2010, 11:20 PM   #20
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Re: $2/$5 QQ OTB vs. UTG Raise, a Flat & a 50bb Shove

This spot is very close if the evaluation of the players is reasonably correct.
If V1 opens TT+ AK and V2 range is 99+ AK~ AND v1 will fold AK TT and JJ to the shove, then we are 17.5% against both of them if we go to stackoff town.

We get V1 to fold 50% of the time if he will fold TT JJ and AK (and he might not do that), but still are only 56% vs the range i give to the shortstack. (which even if off a bit, wont be off that far). So its not like we just win the ~300 everytime we chase V1 out of the pot.

I fold with this particular UTG villain.
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Old 05-30-2010, 10:31 AM   #21
KneedUrDough
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Re: $2/$5 QQ OTB vs. UTG Raise, a Flat & a 50bb Shove

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Originally Posted by AintNoLimit View Post
This spot is very close if the evaluation of the players is reasonably correct.
If V1 opens TT+ AK and V2 range is 99+ AK~ AND v1 will fold AK TT and JJ to the shove, then we are 17.5% against both of them if we go to stackoff town.

We get V1 to fold 50% of the time if he will fold TT JJ and AK (and he might not do that), but still are only 56% vs the range i give to the shortstack. (which even if off a bit, wont be off that far). So its not like we just win the ~300 everytime we chase V1 out of the pot.

I fold with this particular UTG villain.
Can u show ur work? Not saying u aren't right but what u just wrote makes very little sense to me. (I am dumb)
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