2/5 $750 effective.

V is a late 20’s male, pro, playing what seems to be fairly standard tag. The game is loose and passive with a lot of calling and little 3 betting pre. V likely perceives hero as a pro or serious rec.

V opens UTG to $20, Hero looks down at red QQ in the BB and 3 bets to $80. V calls. Thoughts on 3 bet vs flat?

Flop: AhJd5h.

Pot:$155

Hero? Hero $55, V calls.

Turn: 4c.

Pot:$265

Xx

River Qs.

Hero?

We don’t have too many value targets that will check back if we check. We can lose value from AK but there aren’t too many other hands. Check probably doesn’t induce too many bluffs but our hand looks a lot like KK so maybe he turns some pairs into bluffs as well as a few heart draws.

225

Check then put in a stiff x/r. He may conclude you're turning KK into a bluff.

Betting allows us to set the price, so that's nice, but it's hard to see anything calling that isn't going to bet if we check. AK will go for thin value from KK, presumably. Only bet if he's a more cautious type and you can see him checking back AK.

+1 his betting range OTR is wider than his calling range

I thought it was pretty close but opted to check. He checked it back and told me that I was probably good and I tabled the hand.

I think I like my line but there are definitely some interesting decision points in the hand.

Villain is almost always checking back river. I'm just betting. People usually bet the turn here if they're going to put any more action in. Worse than AK is happy to check back. I like the rest of the hand.

Better question is what would you have done if river is a blank?

Check/evaluate. We aren’t moving him off AK.

If you're so sure he has AK then checking with QQ is worst play.

It's a clear check, but I don't think we often discuss enough to do in these marginal situations (supposed to be the low stress thread but it's not utilized enough imo), so that's why I brought it up in this thread. We're often talking about having big hands and how to handle if they're possible second best.

We check and villain bets $125. What are we doing there?

x back on turn is standard for all of his Ax hands, and you can put less worry on V having a flush draw because you have the Qd which blocks AQdd, KQdd, leaving the only possible FD remaining AKdd.

He likely doesn't have AA if you think he 4b this pre, and it's not out of the realm of possibility that he flats KK.

He's never checking back turn with AA/JJ, so we can eliminate that

Given the draws miss OTR, the only hand you should be worried about his checking back is KK. He's likely going to fire again for value with all of his TPTK, and (maybe) 2pair hands like AJhh (?)

TLDR: x/r river, he's firing again for value with all Ax, and 2pair hands. You're only worried about him x'ing back KK/TT

I’m not sure he has AK. I think that in order for bet to be better than check on a brick river we have to be folding out AK.

I like c/r Riv as a default.

Another play u can make if you’ve seen him spazz raise block bets is to put out a small bet of 50 to try and induce a raise. Then u can 3b shove the riv

(This can also double as thin value from a hand like TT)

I'm with wait on this one... bet $200 or so for value. Our range is super narrow pre (JJ+, AK if I had to guess). V will not bluff or value bet light this board against our range. I don't want to let him check back marginal showdown value.

I think OP's analysis of the situation is pretty spot on. I think he'll find a sigh call more often than a bluff OTR.

+1

WP;NH

Don't slow roll the guy. You are first to show

bet, get called by an ace.

him checking back like a-10 here is a disaster.


if he has an under pair tough to say how often he turns it into a bluff. some people would almost always check it down, some people would bluff it almost always.

i think vs most villians missing value from the a-10 or ace x is where we are going to lose the most money.

i think 215 is a bit big too, i think like 140-160 gets called the most.

What are your bluff combos on this river? Us having a is a reason to bet because it’s less likely he has a FD. We never have KTs is a reason to check. We have the 4th best combo we can have, we unblock AK, and we block FDs so all those are reasons to bet.

Interestingly, AA should almost always be a check here since we now unblock FDs but block Ax.

Conclusion: Bet

FDs are near impossible in this spot, and thus whether we block them or not is irrelevant.

KJ
JT
T9

I won’t even include the lower suited connectors.

T9hh is pretty loose from that position (for calling a 3bet). The others all raise flop and/or bet turn.

In any case even if he has some FD combos, the percentage of his range is very small and the effect us having a heart has on that probability is also very small, when you multiply these things together they round to zero.

You realize you are proving my point right? His FDs combos are very small, which means you should bet the river because his range is Ax heavy and will call. If his FDs combos were very large, we should check the river and catch all his bluffs. As it stands, Villain is much more likely to call a bet, then bet himself.

Also why would a FD ever raise the flop into a strong range? I don't think anyone that can hand read well would do that, you don't just raise because you have equity, that's not how poker works. Betting turn is reasonable but I think most people just take the free card because they would hate to get raised.

Just count the combos of AK/AQs/ATs he has and you can see why it is a clear bet, no reasonable UTG player will bet them himself when X too because no worse hands call. BB 3bets are extremely nutted preflop in general- add to the fact that Villain opened UTG and it's literally QQ-AA/AK and maybe some random bluffs, even betting a hand as strong as AK OTR from UTGs point of view is way too thin.

My point isn't "don't bet" (I replied check but I'm leaning bet small now) just that removal effects are worth very close to zero in this spot. I'm not treating QQ with and without a heart any differently.

I'd raise flop with JXhh/KQhh because there are various better hands he can fold (QQ/KK/maybe AQ) and because I want to raise with JJ/55 and I don't have any other bluffs.

So you flip flopped from check to bet? I'd say that's a big difference. Yes its bet small and it's not close. Removal effects of Qh matter in narrow range spots like this (UTG open and BB 3bet is a narrow range spot).

Also as far as raising JJ/55, well first off 55 is a snap fold preflop. You think T9 is loose? 55 is wayyy worse than that.

Monker ranges fold hands as strong as 88/99 here.