1) I think the days of opening for 3 BBs are in the past. In the current 1/2, 1/3, and most 2 or 3/5 games, I see a lot RFIs of 4-7 BBs, especially if buy-in for more than 100 BBs is allowed. So yes, a min of $20 and even $25 will still get action a fair amount of the time (at least in the 3/5 games I play in).
2) Even on this board a >1/2 PSB (maybe 2/3 PSB) is better; checking is also fine. 1/3 PSB doesn't do anything and yes, set's up a knowledgeable player to make this kind of play.
3) As played, before acting on the turn, I think you have to have in mind what river actions you're going to take in the various scenarios, i.e. you should've already have had a decision in mind with a relatively safe brick on the river and you could've determined that you would wind up with a pot of just over $500 and $355 remaining, leaving you to call off the Villain's river shove getting about 2.4ish:1 ($855:$355) on a call and needing to be right about only just more than 25% of the time.
4) Now what can you beat when opponent is willing to bet all three streets? I think Villain's river bet is highly polarized between three-barrel bluff and 2P or better value bet. I don't think he's ever betting one pair for value to this size (also, I'm eliminating AA, KK, the other QQ combo, and all AK combos due to lack of PF 3-B; I suspect any type of pro would prefer to play HU IP with any premium holding and less likely to get tricky with a premium holding PF). Therefore there a lot more combos in his LP flat calling range that have you crushed on this flop and/or by the turn as as opposed to your strong hands on this flop while your strong holding are limited to A
K
and TT and even maybe 77 or 66; I doubt you would play A
Ko this way multiway on this flop. All the other of your over pairs that include a
are now just drawing. And if he somehow has the A
then he knows you can't have it and knows he can play the hand very differently, including the way he's opted to play. Randomly by the turn, there's about a 1/20 chance he's holding the A
and considering he flat calls your EP RFI I'll upgrade him to about 1/8 chance that he's holding it since you're not holding it and while it's 120+:1 that he's flopped a flush, especially since you're holding Q
there's still a lot of different hands that crush you verses only a few or yours that crushing him when he's playing his hand as such.
5) Even with a non-pairing fourth club, you're still only holding the third or at best second nut; hurts to hit draw and find out you're still second best. If you had KK with K
you're a little more confident of being best with a fourth
, I would accept going broke unimproved with AA including A
.
6) As is, I would lean towards folding the turn; forfeit the $80 (16 BBs) and look for a better spot to get stacks in. Opponent's bet size on turn tells me he's willing to play for stacks on the river.
Last edited by sam7595; 03-28-2021 at 08:44 AM.