Reads: Mid 40s or so white guy who is an unknown, but seems a bit quiet. Haven't seen a single showdown from him in about the 45 min that he's been at the table. My image should be fine, standard TAG. I recently lost the following pot to a different player...

I opened 77, was called by only one of the blinds. Flop: Q 9 5 two hearts. Check/check. Turn is the A. He checks, I bet pot, he calls. River is J for a board of Q 9 5 A J. Villain check/calls a $110 and wins with ace rag.

Onto the hand:

Folds to me on the button. I open for 15 with QQ. Only villain calls in the BB.

About 600 effective.

Flop: 764. Villain checks, I bet 30, villain makes it 80, I flat.

Turn: 764A. Villain bets 130 into 190. I flat.

River: 764AK. Villain shoves for a little under a pot sized bet. I fold.

Fold turn. As played definitely fold river. You're ahead of nothing and even busted nut and 2nd nut spades got there.

Why call the turn only to fold river?

I'm folding turn and may even fold flop

Given descriptions, calling flop c/r is questionable.

Calling turn makes no sense.

If our default strategy is to fold turn here, then shouldn't villain be check/raising any two cards on the flop and continuing betting the turn and river?

If I knew I was playing against such a player, I would be bluffing incredibly frequently w/ a plan of shoving river.

If we fold QQ on the turn, then what hands are we calling with and what % of our range it that?

Note: We should probably be calling the check raise and calling a turn and river bet with about 20% of our range.

Hand given as history is pretty bad.

Here I'm definitely folding the turn. Probably not the flop because people can have 88/FDs/random spaz but usually they don't barrel the turn so I fold there.

You're giving villains at LLSNL entirely too much credit.

Try to find hands that QQ beats that x/r's flop, barrels turn, and shoves river. I'll wait.

Does the fact that I've shown a fairly decent sized bluff recently (within the past 9 hands) affect the history? Does it make it more or less likely villain is either overplaying a weaker hand or bluffing here?

I don't know why you're turning your hand into a bluff in hand 1.

AP there can be arguments made for folding on the flop or on the turn. But if I'm calling the turn, there's no way I'm folding on the river (Kx doesn't really change anything).

As for showing down a bluff, I think that would make V more likely to call you down in the future. However, people start playing back at us when we play LAG and win a bunch of pots with no showdown, not when we lose one and show a bluff.

Tough hand.

Against a weak player, the flop c/r is frightening, it wold be OK to fold. But. Against a tough player, the flop c/r is more likely a draw, especially if he perceives that your cbet frequency is too high, with too much trash. It's read dependent, if you think the guy is tough, then given the board texture, I think this is a call.

OTT, though, there are two things
1. Strategically thinking, do you really want to continue here? Is that really part of your game plan? if the turn was a spade, yeah. But here? Maybe the answer is yes, but -->
2. Tactically speaking, there's a bet sizing tell. This is a tight player, he really likes his hand.

I think, here, the tactical concerns outweigh the strategic concerns. I understand what you're saying about being exploitable, but the tactical situation dictates its own response, and given a tight player who has made two really strong bets in a row, sometimes you just have to focus on this hand right now.

River is fine, I don't think I would call with 3rd pair, gotta figure that's a value bet.

So far so good with the other comments ... How about opening for more? $10 isn't much to speculate in a c/f situation on the Flop for V ... unless he connects.

I don't think I ever fold this Flop c/r, but it would be real hard to get past the Turn and def folding River to this V. GL

I hate to say this, but I probably fold OTF to the x/r.

We hate all A,K,T,7,6,5,4... That's 25 cards out of 47 left, and we'll have to dodge them twice. We're calling 140:50... seems a little gross.

I guess if you're putting this guy on 98 only, then I guess you can keep on calling so long as the obvious straight and flush don't come in. But his turn and river line definitely do not follow for 98ss.

If you're not folding OTF (which calling isn't bad) then I just don't see how you can continue OTT.

y arent we 3betting flop?!?!?!

Money is important in this world.

Personally, I fold flop here. In my game, a check raised flop on a board like that is 2 pair minimum the vast majority of the time.

For your recent bluff that got picked off - yes, it should be in your thought process. In this spot though, it seems to me the V won't be bluff check raising here often enough to flat the flop, purely based on the recent bluff. They (for the most part) don't think that deeply unless you have history or are dealing with a very creative / competent player.

As played, once the Ace hits the turn, and the V could care less and bets hard, I think a fold is in order. We have a bluff catcher for sure now OTT, and almost for sure a 1 pair hand is cooked, especially now that it's 2nd pair. Plus the sizing tells us the river is going to be a sizable bet as well.

I think you need more history with villian to call flop check raise.

If he is raising a lot of flops then fine call but this guy might be a total nit.

Assume everyone is bad and adjust from there.