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2/5 - QQ Flopped Top Boat, Raise or Call Turn? 2/5 - QQ Flopped Top Boat, Raise or Call Turn?

03-17-2021 , 12:52 PM
2/5, 8 handed, $500 effective. Hero has only been at the table for 30 minutes but has a nitty image if anyone is paying attention. Villain seems to be loose, but I'm not ready to label him a loose passive or LAG. +1 seems to be the standard loose passive.

OTTH

+1 limps, loose passive limps +2, loose passive limps CO, hero raises Q Q $40, SB calls, +1 calls.

Flop ($135): Q 8 8. SB checks, +1 checks, hero bets $40 and both villains call.

Turn ($255): 7. SB leads for $80, +1 calls. Hero?

Pros I see to calling:
1. river pot is $495 and we have $340, so it's easy to shove if checked to
2. If SB read tiny flop sizing as weakness and decided to spazz, we give him the opportunity to spazz again
3. If SB actually has a monster/turned a monster, we give +1 the opportunity to call a river bet, whereas raising might scare him away
4. If SB has a hand like Qx and decided to lead, we might scare him off with a turn shove, whereas he may bet the river/x-c if we just call

Pros I see to shoving:
1. Draws will probably call a shove now but will fold the river
2. If villains have value but not a draw, they might fold if the river completes the flush
3. Given we don't have strong enough reads yet - if villains are stationary enough to call with Qx (99-JJ?!), they may find a fold on a K or A river
2/5 - QQ Flopped Top Boat, Raise or Call Turn? Quote
03-17-2021 , 01:07 PM
I call, mainly because I think a lot of players will find a fold with a FD when you shove the turn. I doubt they call with a naked FD so reckon you'd be getting a lot of folds.
Just seems like IP there are a lot of good scenarios on a lot of rivers.
2/5 - QQ Flopped Top Boat, Raise or Call Turn? Quote
03-17-2021 , 01:21 PM
SB probably has an 8 and won't fold to your shove. But you want to get both players to call. If you shove now and SB calls, the pot would be $1175 and it will cost the other V $340 to call, for about 3.5 to 1 pot odds. V should fold with just a flush draw but he might call if he as a combo draw. But on the other hand, if the flush hits, the SB with trip 8s may think he's beaten and not payoff with 2 opponents on this board.

It's close but I would just shove now, and expect the SB to call, and hope that +1 V has a combo draw and feels priced in. It's your best chance to get both players to call.

An overcall on this board looks really strong as well.
2/5 - QQ Flopped Top Boat, Raise or Call Turn? Quote
03-17-2021 , 02:40 PM
I flat here. I don't want to lose either one, and it's going to be hard for them to fold on the river.
2/5 - QQ Flopped Top Boat, Raise or Call Turn? Quote
03-17-2021 , 03:11 PM
Yeah, flat is the move here I think. If you raise it would have to be a ****** min click back and guess but mostly flatting here.
2/5 - QQ Flopped Top Boat, Raise or Call Turn? Quote
03-17-2021 , 03:21 PM
I think that against good players a flat is best. You are extremely nutted IP with a hand that is basically impervious to any river card.

Against bad players I min-click, as they won't fold for $80 more into a pot that size. You juice more money in and convince the fish to call more often on the river too.

Hard to go wrong with this hand though.
2/5 - QQ Flopped Top Boat, Raise or Call Turn? Quote
03-17-2021 , 04:17 PM
I’m usually a big fan of not slowplaying monsters, but here I think the pros outweigh the cons.
2/5 - QQ Flopped Top Boat, Raise or Call Turn? Quote
03-17-2021 , 09:08 PM
I agree with the min raise. It is possible the small blind has a draw and is representing an 8 in order to buy a cheap turn bet, a blocking bet / bluff. If you just flat and he misses, he can sometimes shove on the river as a bluff. Good players will often do that. In which case, he will likely call a min raise now and then how can the +1 fold when he called the first bet and now he is getting even better odds? If he has any kind of draw, he will call the min raise too. Then the pot will be too large to fold to a small all in bet if he can beat a queen. Maybe an Ace on the river to give the nut flush draw top pair. Your min raise looks like an over-pair or AQ to some. Your flop bet just looks like a standard continuation bet and could be a hand like JJ or AK. SB may also lead out with all his top pair hands, again hoping to represent an 8. The UTG+1 is mostly calling with some sort of draw. Your raise actually looks weaker, like you are trying to protect your over-pair from a draw. Just flatting to a thinking opponent will look like a draw such as AK hearts or a very strong made hand.

Of course, anyone with an 8 will call the min raise and may even shove all in to protect their hand from a draw. That may be the one compelling argument to go ahead and just call on the turn. However, as stated above, if you let them see the river card, the flush draw will not put anymore money in if they miss and the trip 8's will likely not put anymore money in unless they boat up, especially if the flush or straight comes in on the river. What is clear is they are both willing to put 80 in now to see a river card, so why not milk them for another 80 each?

Last edited by I'm Loose 33; 03-17-2021 at 09:17 PM.
2/5 - QQ Flopped Top Boat, Raise or Call Turn? Quote
03-18-2021 , 10:15 AM
I call here. You are crushing too much of the board that I think it's super easy to get folds here from at least one (even if it is only a min raise ( I think in some cases, min raises are scarier than shoves). Donking is usually a sign of strength, but raising a donk is even stronger where the most oblivious fish might sense something amiss.

Trying to figure out what they have. SB might have the 8 here, as the donk seems to be one of value (since this is a passive player making a play, thinking stronger hand). +1 might have a J10d perhaps? Who has the deeper stack? That might be the legit question here. If it's SB, I call. If it's +1, I min raise.
2/5 - QQ Flopped Top Boat, Raise or Call Turn? Quote
03-18-2021 , 10:57 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nippleman
I call here. You are crushing too much of the board that I think it's super easy to get folds here from at least one (even if it is only a min raise ( I think in some cases, min raises are scarier than shoves). Donking is usually a sign of strength, but raising a donk is even stronger where the most oblivious fish might sense something amiss.

Trying to figure out what they have. SB might have the 8 here, as the donk seems to be one of value (since this is a passive player making a play, thinking stronger hand). +1 might have a J10d perhaps? Who has the deeper stack? That might be the legit question here. If it's SB, I call. If it's +1, I min raise.
SB had about $800, +1 had about $500
2/5 - QQ Flopped Top Boat, Raise or Call Turn? Quote
03-18-2021 , 01:06 PM
I still favor a min raise here simply to help balance your bluffing range. The +1 may be calling with AA or KK and may think they have you beat with a hand such as AQ which could easily min raise here in hopes of getting you to fold a weak draw.

What you say about min raises sometimes looking stronger is true but only if your opponents have seen you make this move in the past. If you have never done this before with the nuts, they will likely misinterpret it as a weak made hand. Anyway, by making this move now, you can use this to your advantage in future hands by making some tricky min raise bluffs. You need to make them fear your min raise and think twice about calling it. These opportunities will not come up often. So take advantage of them when they do. I steal many pots by min raising especially from early position against a late position bet especially if that bet was a weak bet to start with, such as a half or third pot size bet. It is a huge exploitation when you can bet 80 into a 400 dollar pot and steal the pot. If your opponents will make big folds to your min raise bluffs, you will be able to dominate them. This is part of the metagame strategy. You need to make moves like this to see how your opponents react and then remember that information for future use. Had you made any min raises earlier in this session? What did you have last time you did this? How did they respond to your min raise? If they all folded they may feel you are likely making a move and decide to look you up or even shove as a semi-bluff thinking you are weak.

One basic rule in poker is the more you bet, the more decisions your opponents will have to make and therefore the more opportunities they will have to make a mistake. The more mistakes they make, the more you benefit. If you just call here, you are never giving them an option to make another mistake. Sometimes that mistake will be calling, other times that mistake will be folding. But the key is you are forcing them to make another decision and the way this hand plays out will have lasting implications at least for the remainder of this session. The extra fold equity you may gain on future hands may far exceed any small loss you may get in this one hand when one player folds to your min raise.

Last edited by I'm Loose 33; 03-18-2021 at 01:22 PM.
2/5 - QQ Flopped Top Boat, Raise or Call Turn? Quote

      
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