Apologies, I am a little bit fuzzy on a couple of details, but my question revolves mostly about our basic assumptions about an opponent's range in that spot.

Background: Villain seems like a reg, but I don't think he's any good. He limps a ton (around 50% of his hands) raises relatively a lot (around 15%), but among his raises are some crap hands OOP. ( I saw him show down Q9o raised from EP2 or MP1). I also saw him call PF 3bets without having proper odds, like the time when he raised 20 with QTs from EP, and an old passive player who was shortstacked (had something no more than 200 -probably less) 3bet to 60 from the blinds and he called.

Postflop I haven't seen him get too much out of line, I suspect he stole a couple of pots when no one took any interest in them, but mostly I ve seen him bet and 3-bet value hands, never going all in.

Hero has been playing for hours what counts as TAG in live, almost always getting in with a raise and playing a relatively tight range of hands (around 20%). I have been c-betting a lot though per usual and in a couple of instances I was shown in showdown to have air or pretty thin bets after I took stabs at the pot either on the flop or the turn.

Interestingly enough, a few hands before the one in question, a hand happened that probably affected the metagame. With effective stacks at 1500, I raised with QT from late position against a loose limper, another passive player called from the blinds, flop came AQ2. I cbet, loose fish called from the blinds. Turn came a brick, but loose fish bet 1500 in a 200 pot. I folded, but not before asking the exact price of what he bet in disbelief and then remarking that is very tough to call that bet even with two pair there. Villain asked me if I had two pair and I said no; then I was asked if I was calling with two pair and I remarked that I don't know what I was going to do, but I was going to sweat it.

All of which brings us to the hand in question. Hero's in BB with QQ.

Effective stacks are 520.

Preflop (7). Mp1 calls 5, Mp2 calls 5, HJ (Villain) calls 5, B calls 5, SB calls 5, BB(Hero) raises to 35. Everyone folds except for HJ which calls.

At that point, I am thinking that villain has broadway, mid to low pairs, suited and may be unsuited connectors.

Flop (90). KT9

BB checks, Hj checks.

Turn (90) 8 ( I don't remember the suit and whether it kept the board a rainbow or it brought in a flush draw). Based on what the guy next to me said, I think it brought a flush draw.

Hero bets 65, Villain shoves all in 485.

Hero?

I ve plugged this into flopzilla and depending on what kind of hands he shoves with, it can be a trivial fold or an easy call. It can actually be a trivially easy call, if we know that Villain only shoves his draws and 3bets small with the strong part of his range.

So here are my questions:

1. In a vacuum, without having all the history and the meta considerations with this specific villain, what is our operating assumption about the average 2-5 villain's range in this spot? Conversely, if there's no average villain, but specific categories of players who behave in this or that way, what are those categories and what percentages do we assign to each one?

2. Given that we do have all this history with villain, I can see 3 scenarios on what he's doing:

a. Since I ve shown that I sometimes take stabs at the pot and I have a tight calling range against shoves, he's trying to take advantage by shoving a semibluff in hopes that I would fold air + weak and medium strong hands with showdown value.

b. Because of our previous conversation, knowing that I am aware that someone could try to take advantage of me by shoving, he's shoving a nutty hands in hopes that I would level myself into calling.

c. Despite history, villain remains a level 1 and 2 player and just plays the hand the same way he would have played it otherwise.

What probabilities do you assign to each scenario? Is there another one I am missing?

I wouldn't try to overthink this one. Just fold.

If he's bluffing based on your earlier comment when loose fish shoved 1500 into 200, well-played on his part.

The key here is where you say "Postflop I haven't seen him get too much out of line..." Now he gets out of line with an overbet.

So I'm going to give him credit for 2-pair+. Probably something junky like K8, T8 or 98.

the check behind on the flop leads me to believe he has 89 or 108

The thing is that in other instances, when he had 2 pair and against a villain who had bet 3 streets, he just 3xed his 3bet.

Moreover, he could definitely have two pair there. But if he also shoves with pair plus draw, like JT or 78, or some sort of flush draw combo I missed, then this is a call.