Seems to be a pretty good theoretical case to rip here, including getting better hands and chops to fold. I dig it.

I am not sure theory has conquered 5 people to the flop. Also, I am not sure why turning a showdown hand into a bluff comports with the theory that says we should bluff with hands with no showdown value.

This isn't true, and I know you know it isn't true either. Any Qx will call, AT and then some other Tx will call depending on the stickiness. Also draws are calling. LLSNL villains are so so stationary/sticky. It will also confuse the hell out of them.

It's not as a bluff. It's a value bet. We'll definitely value own ourselves from time to time, but I did list above all of the hands that will call that we beat.

Even in the Midwest, I believe this to not be true. A 2.5x overbet shove will get most Vs to think you have AA/KK and are scared of being outdrawn. Most LLSNL Vs will fold their draws because they've learned enough to know that they're not getting the right odds and they have none of the IOs that they usually think make up for it.

A few Vs will "put you on AK" and call with some Qx combos, but only the ones who really fall in love with their hands pre, so when you do get called it will almost always be AQ or KQs. Maybe very occasionally you'll get an ATs call, but that's gonna be really rare, imo.

I really think you're confusing the 1/2/5 population with Vegas' 10/20 population.

Yesterday I got 3 streets HU oop with Q J on a Q 6 4 9 2 run out, and with J J HU oop on a T 7 4 5 A run out.

You're giving way too much credit to a pathetically sticky population.

Earlier this year a fish (correctly) folded a flopped flush vs me face up after I just raised his flop donk multi-way. I had a pretty loose image and it’s Texas. Similar stack sizes.

Yeah the fold in my example was terrible, but the point is just because you’ll get paid off over and over again doesn’t mean we know how Villains will react to a 2.5x overbet shove. That’s why it’s a bluff. It happens more often than you know, you’re just rarely shown the hero fold.

It may confuse them but you’re laying yourself a terrible price. You don’t have as much equity with QJ here as you think you do 5 ways. So shoving is incredibly -EV if you don’t fold out worse.

Three streets of 2.5x overbets? If so, I'm moving north, but given your previous HHs I'd be impressed if all three were over half pot, tbqh.

A-10 is calling a 2.5x shove here...?
Random 10x is calling 2.5x here...?

...wuttttt?

I thought I was misinterpreting what you wrote, and maybe you’d be trying to fold out better Qx by doing this, but ya, this seems questionable to me (this isn’t me saying it’s absolutely wrong).

The hands I see calling are Q-10, 10-7, 77/10’s, AQ and maybe KQ.

So no, I don’t know that what you’re saying isn’t true and I’m not trying to be difficult and I’m not saying your coach sucks either. I’m just saying I do not comprehend.

HU or 3-way I could see how this makes more sense.

HH1 was from flop-river: 1/3, 1/2, 1/3

HH2 was from flop-river: 2/3, 4/5, 1/3


He made me scratch my head. I'm almost 100% sure that all Qx are calling a 2.5x shove...I definitely expect AT and some worse Tx calling a "normal bet," but I wasn't so sure about the shove. He seemed pretty adamant that AT was at least calling a shove, and I can see it. I'm conflicted, but he's probably right. As I said, I originally would've bet super small or checked. I do love Bart Hanson's quote "if you're never value owning yourself, you aren't value betting enough." Obviously that doesn't fully apply here, but I think I get a little gunshy at making these types of shoves - though I have no problem going for razor thin value. I definitely value own myself at least once, on average, per session.

I really think you're underestimating the stickiness of live poker players. I wouldn't pull a stunt like this online, and I honestly don't know how I feel about doing it live either, but I don't see only better hands calling. I just don't see any way these guys are folding worse Qx.

I did tell my coach "I would bet super small or check, before hearing your advice," and he says that he doesn't like betting super small because it allows the villains to play perfectly otf. He says he doesn't like checking because it lets them realize their equity more, and our hand is too strong to check/we are missing out on value.

He did say that he's shoving the turn as played, and that he's calling the river as played.

I would look for a different coach. Wow $120/hr for this lol.

You think all of his advice is terrible?

It’s funny because I see it as the opposite where it’s incredibly easy to play perfect against this overbet.

I have never played in a game with such bad players that multiple spots are calling a 2.5x shove multi-way with any 10’s.

I don't know enough about him to say that all of his advice is terrible, but the thing you mentioned that really stood out to me was "he doesn't like betting super small because it allows the villains to play perfectly otf."

This is honestly as far from correct theory as you can get. Shove is actually the easiest sizing to play against. Whether people are calling correctly vs it is beside the point, but I'd also add that his perception of what people are actually calling here vs a shove is way off.

In general I have a very low opinion of coaches, especially live coaches. I think anyone decent is probably charging +$500/hr and the people offering live coaching in the $100/hr range tend to be total trash and a waste of time.

Yeah, those are definitely some good points and things to think about. Yikes.

Imagine thinking a shove otf is for value as a above average mid stakes reg in 2020

Poker is more alive than ever

All I see when somebody wants to thin the herd is somebody who is too scared to play with multiple opponents. I was playing a few months ago and this clown was making ridiculous overbets and then proudly saying "Got T7 out of there. Got J5 out of there. Got 23 to fold" as each opponent folded preflop. Then he proudly turns over AKs with his $80 preflop raise or whatever and scoops the blinds. Good for him. He got all the worst hands to fold.

Anyone who thinks making bets like this is for value is being terribly results oriented from that 1 time they remember some guy called it. Believe it or not it's actually possible to value bet and read 5 opponents at the same time, thats what I mean when I say play poker.

None of your tangent really has anything to do with my logic for raising extremely large with a strong range pre.

The bolded is ridiculous and doesn’t make any sense.

I don’t care how many opponents I’m up against and I’m typically the most fearless player at the table. “Playing poker” is fantastic but I’m more interested in taking the most profitable line with my entire range.

Well I'm saying raising 15 BB's with QJs is bad no matter what you are trying to accomplish. The fact that playing TPGK on a safe runout garnered this much interest is also shocking.