Quote:
Originally Posted by sixsevenoff
This isn't the right board texture to be down betting. What hands are you targeting otr?
AK2 is the wrong texture to be downbetting. On T94r if we look at nut advantage, we can have 6 sets and maybe 1 combo of 2p. There are 2 T9s left, and we're not always 3b it. Straight draws, we have 4 QJs and maybe 2 87s.
UTG who bets TT+ pre can have 6 sets as well. He might have some T9s in his calling range, so as many 2p as us... maybe more if he's feeling hot with T9o. He could have QJo as well, so more draws to the nuts than us.
BTN, the Asian LAG, can have 9 sets. More than us. He can have T9o as well as suited, so more 2p than us. He can have QJo and maybe even some 87o, so more ways to make nuts than us.
What we have going for us are all the overpairs. They give us an equity advantage, however, it's harder for us to come up with more nutted hands than the opposition. Therefore, we can bet a lot to get value from worse, like random Tx garbage, but we shouldn't get carried away with our sizing because when lots of money goes in, there are more ways for us to be behind than ahead. As another poster said a week or two ago: range advantage, bet often. Nut advantage, bet large.
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On the river, I'm targeting Tx, like T with broadway kicker will bluff catch a small bet. He could have Q8s/Q7s garbage too. Some 9x and 66-88 could call us off too, putting us on AK or something.