2/5 at Bellagio, been at the table for 2h

V (1k) - Mid-aged African American guy, quiet and tight, very disciplined pref, barely limps, barely plays OOP, almost always mucks SB. Only played a couple of hands in 2h

H (600) - Young girl in business formal, tight image, haven't played many hands, no showdown yet

V opens UTG to 25, MP calls, H calls OTB with 56. Three-way

Flop ($75) Q94
Checked to H who fires 50. Only V calls.

Putting V on TT/JJ.

Turn ($175) 8
V checks, H bets 120, V calls somewhat quickly

The call worries me a little bit but still think TT/JJ is most likely. Plan on barreling any non-ten non-jack river if all my draws brick. My line is consistent with AQ and sets.

River ($415) J
V checks for the third time - ???

Lost. I believe V is competent enough to (thin) value (I don't have many Ts in my range, if he rivered a set+ I expect him to bet). If he doesn't have TT/JJ what he opened UTG with and called two streets with? Can't put V on a hand now. What hands do you put V on? Anyone would bluff this river?

What would a guy like this open to $25 UTG?

Can't imagine this guy just calling twice with QQ on this board. TT/JJ shouldn't call the turn quickly.

AA/KK should also bet, but you might be able to win vs those. And if he has AK that's great because he can't call you.

You could have a ton of value hands here and 65 is literally bottom of your range, so I would go all-in. And I wouldn't bet less than all-in.

I don't mind a ship on this river as it will be pretty difficult to call but I'm not too keen on the turn bet. I don't think he folds much of his range to our turn bet given the board, and a lot of times we just have to give up on the river and all we have is 6 high.

Turn is fine. I'd check back the nut flush draw, but with 6-high and a gutter I would blast away.

Given he called turn pretty quickly, it feels pretty much exactly like AJss, since it's the only hand I can put in his range for c/c flop which improves (to a gutter + NFD) on the turn. TT-JJ also improve on the turn, but given your description of him, he would almost certainly give some thought before calling turn with those.

I don't think he's folding a set, and obviously not folding a straight (that said, he would lead river with those apparently), but he clearly can't call with AKss or AJss. I think we can get away with a pretty small river bluff here, I'd go with about $150-$200, since I think we only need to worry about AJss folding, and want to minimise the damage done in the off chance he played TT-JJ this way.

If we really think villain is a good player (which OP seems to indicate) then turn is fine but I against typical 2/5 player I would expect a fold here next to never given that most of his hands include straight draws.

If we are going to barrel the turn I prefer a pot sized bet to maximize villain's fold equity.

Regarding AK - Would most players c/c with that, or c/r?

Depends on their aggression factor and how triggerhappy they are in general with big draws.

I play pretty tight myself, but with this kind of flop and AKs i am looking to check raise a significant portion of the time- because it accomplishes three things:

1) I am maximazing my fold equity.

2) I am building a pot with my huge equity wich most likely have my opponents range crushed.

3) I want to have some semibluffing combos in my flop check-raising range, so it does not consist of only two pairs and sets.

Based on the description of how disciplined this player is about position, I don't think he would check raise very often on that flop. He would probably not want a bloated pot OOP. Leading with a cbet seems most likely followed by c/c. So I think he could have AKss. Maybe alsoAJss, but not so sure this villain would raise that pre. If he has a good made hand then he played it strangely, so I would take the chance and fire again.

This is going to be a very marginal spot. It all depends on how often he plays JJ/AQ and NFDs this way. We could be exactly breakeven, slightly losing or slightly profitable here.

Given that our EV is close to breakeven here I probably jam, because image.

Thanks for all the comments!

This seems like the perfect opponent and situation to shove here otr. I expect you to get looked up almost never unless he binked a J with JJ. But this guy probably folds that OTT with 2nd pair+ a gutshot OOP. I presume he had a nice draw and played in passively. AKs, KJs. Could have a KQ that is trying to pot control and get to showdown. He should be capped at 1 pair here and river should be an easy lay down for him when you shove based on both of your descriptions

JJ/TT look v consistent w his line. He's not c/f otf when the opponent last to act bets, and he picks up equity ott and would likely c/c rather than lead, even relatively quickly.

Bad river vs that range and I'd shut it down. AKss is unlikely based on how passive he played it, even for a nit.

I wonder if the turn bet is profitable.