2/5, 9 handed, $600 effective. Hero has only been at the table for a half hour and has raised of twice; once was a BTN iso to $30 over two limps and everyone folded, and the only time hero raises to $50 over one limp in a straddle pot from HJ, the limper called then x-f a K54r flop. Villain in this hand has played a few hands, all were passive except one hand where PFR double barreled and he called, then PFR x-f river. Villain hasn't gone to showdown once.

OTTH

Hero opens 8 8 $25 UTG and only villain calls from CO.

Flop ($57): T 6 2. Hero bets $30 and villain calls.

Turn ($117): 7. Hero? I try to not play OOP; c bet was standard though, right? In this spot it's very hard to get value from worse hands...is this a x-f spot? Do we bet again to deny equity and/or don't want to x-f because of our hand strength?

I bet again. I hate to check/fold, especially since the gutshot is now part of our hopes and dreams. Would you check an over-pair? I'd go small to around $50. If he calls again, you can evaluate river.

You have a gutshot and probably have the best hand. I’d bet it again around $60-70.

67o : how are you ranging the V after he calls your cbet on a bone-dry board? Obviously his range has condensed to overcards and mid-pairs. Are we betting the turn for FE or equity denial to overcards? At this decision point, what’s going through your mind?

No, I would not check an overpair. How much does turning equity of the added gutshot factor in our decision to bet here?

For example, if the turn were to have been a 2-5, are we still betting? I presume we're x-c any 6 or T, betting a 9, and then x-f J+?

That's the question I was asking - do we bet to deny equity to overs? What's in my mind is that we have the best hand very frequently, but have trouble getting value from worse. My confusion on what to do is what led to this thread.

I just like the idea of keeping control of the hand and, yes, denying overs equity. If it goes check, check or if we check/call, there are a lot of rivers we don't want to see. I guess the good thing is there are a lot of rivers V probably doesn't want to see, either, maybe it just goes check, check on river -- or we can easily check/fold if he's that passive.

How often does a passive villain float the flop with overs against a UTG PFR though?

against a passive V

I'm betting turn $60-70 for value and FE

if you were in position and V checked to you would you bet turn ?

fyi I would for same reasons

We don't know yet from this V. We haven't seen a hand. I know passive players who will flat AK pre and basically always call a c-bet. We might get him to fold 99, JJ (less likely, but you never know) or AT, too.

Plus, we control the size of the bet and build the pot a little in case we really bink the river. We might be able to bluff hearts, too.

Thanks for sharing this because it’s a difficult spot we all encounter frequently.

I’m swayed by Javanewt’s argument that we want to keep the initiative/ aggression factor in this hand. We’ve opened UTG and therefore continued turn pressure can fold V’s overs and perhaps even TPWK hands. If he has a set I think he will let us know here so we can escape with minor damage.

Flop is a definite bet for protection.

I'd bet small again on the turn.

Against what hands do we have FE? Perhaps only 99, which would likely call a small turn.

Vs. a passive on a dry flop, I'd continue, then X turn, likely folding to reasonable sizing.

It sounds like V is the type who calls with a huge % of his range and only raises with big hands. What I do on the turn is determined by how wide his cold calling range is here but the problem turns into you taking the exact same line as the only HH you gave of this guy so if you fire the turn and check river you might end up getting blown off your hand or making a hero call if the board doesn't seem to improve his hand.

I think that a passive V like you describe is going to have combos of hands that outweigh Tx hands so a turn bet for value/protection would be fine.

Often times a player like this will only bluff on the river so against this specific V I would c/c turn and fold to a river bet which probably won't be coming since he will check many of his Tx hands.

Bet turn
x/eval river

I might just shutdown readless.

We have no real read on V

things I'd like to know
is V positional aware as we open raised UTG
is V a passive station ?
V did call call and then bet when checked to on the river so V looks to have some awareness

other hands V might float flop with AK AQ 55 44 77
could V lay down A10 K10 J10 if we 3 barrel ?

other unknowns
Why did we open raise 88 to begin with
what was its purpose ?

assume we got what we wanted heads up with a good flop for us

why take your foot off the gas when the turn looks to be of little help

of course all this is just FPS if V is a station and doesn't care what your range might be UTG or otherwise


BTW spots like this come up more often than we like , good post !

If Hero decided to bet small here on the turn, $40-60 range. What rivers should he be 3 barrelling on? Bet on the larger side on any A,K,Q and on the smaller side with any 10,9 or 8? and X rest?

Bet or c/c is fine. Sometimes you can get a good read and c/f turn but given information I think you c/c 1 more street.

We could check/call flop but I like betting better to deny equity with only one over.

I agree these spots aren’t fun.

We could bet 1/3 pot on turn here and reevaluate. From what I noticed people fold so much to double barrels and the size doesn’t even need to be that big.

People may float flop with Ax or worse and fold turn to small size

idk This board is so bad for our UTG range if I was v and floating here and u bet small into me on river I’m definitely gonna make u play for all ur chips realizing urnUTG range should not be strong here

so you never consider UTG 3 barrel to be AA or KK or 1010 ?

88 is nearly the nut worst cbet otf. It should be checked nearly 100% of the time in solver world, and blocks draws when villain calls, skewing villains range to value hands.

don't you dare bring your nerd talk here. we barrel turn and river here and probably call a jam because, hey, we've come this far.

We aren't playing in solver world; we are playing 2-5 cash game somewhere in the United States, which, in general, means that the other players are so far out of equilibrium that we should be focusing on exploiting the living **** out of them.

And I have said this before, and I expect I shall have to say it again: just because a player is unknown and we do not have a specific read on them, that does not mean we cannot make useful assumptions about how they play. It's called a "population read." We can expect an unknown player to play like a typical player until and unless we see them doing something atypical.

In this particular case, the villain is likely playing a moderately wide but capped range, something along the lines of {QQ-22, AQs-A2s, KQs-K9s, QJs-Q9s, JTs-J9s, T9s-T8s, 98s-97s, 87s, 76s, 65s, AKo-AQo, KQo, QJo}. We can hem and haw over what should or shouldn't be in their range, but that's going to be the basic size and shape. And the thing to be aware of is that a range like this is going to miss the flop something like 60% or more of the time. "Missing" here means having a pair bigger than middle pair, or having a gutshot straight draw. Even if they take a card off with any pair at all, they are going to be folding to a c-bet almost half the time.

The villain has all the sets, and we have only TT in our range, so we don't have nut advantage, but we do have range advantage. The flop is a spot where c-betting relatively small, say 1/3 to 1/2 pot, with most or all of our range is going to be printing money.

The villain calls us, and their continuing range is fairly strong. We are not doing well against it.

On the turn, we only have about 25% equity versus the villain's entire range that calls a flop bet, and we are even worse off against hands that call a turn c-bet. The only reason to bet here is as a bluff, to fold out better pairs. And my population read is that villains do not like folding pairs, especially on dry boards. Even with the one-card straight draw we are not in great shape.

I would recommend checking and folding to any bet bigger than about half the pot.