Hero - been real aggro, stealing blinds when possible, only guy 3!ing ect.

Villian - 30s Asian with sunglasses...hasnt been raisy or too agro..smooth calling all my raises til now.

Folds to hero OTB who makes it $15 with
68 with $510ish villian covers.
Villian 3! In the sb to $40 bb folds.

Flop T86
$85

Villian leads for $50

Hero debates reasons for popping it now or waiting til the turn.

Your equity isn't that great vs overpairs with a club. I'd call and see what the turn brings.

I would put in a healthy raise and shove clean turns.

I call OTF and GII if V bets on any non-club, non-T turns. If checked to, I probably b/c 130.

Another vote for flat here. There is no point in trying to get it in at best as a flip here when the turn will change our equity substantially.

We're not trying to GII, that's just one possible outcome.

We've got 68% versus his likely 3! -> c-bet flop range:



We've got 52% equity versus a tighter range of the following which removes all combos of hands from the previous group without a club in them:



Meaning we have ~78% equity to the turn versus his continuing range. **IF** villain decides to shove over us after we raise to $200 than we only need 26% for a +EV call AKA a highly profitable spot.

[270 / (270 + 200 + 470 + 80)] = 26%

V's 3b range is probably wider than that. TT/JJ/AQs/AQo should all be in it, possibly 99 and KQs KQo KJs AJs/ATs...V also might feel committed after betting turn but might consider folding some overpairs without a club on the flop which is fine but not the best result IMO

Read is he hasn't been aggro and this is his first 3bet.

We don't know how long hero has been playing with villain, but even if it's been 3 hours thats only ~100 hands, TT+/AQ+ is only 62 combos so like 5% or so, and at most 2/5 tables how often do you get to steal the blinds? I don't think we have a large enough sample size to rule out TT+/AQ+

We don't need to go very big to be able to jam safe turns, I'd say $100-$120 is good.

You absolutely should be raising here. If he has an overpair without a club he probably calls, youre geting value out of AKo with a club, and if he flats, hes probably checks any turn which lets you GII ahead if the turn comes clean, and check bakc if the club comes to get a free look at a FH. The only thing youre behind is AcKc, so its an easy call if he ships.

This 100%.

Our equity will change substantially on a clean turn, this is true, but what if an action killer comes when we're still way ahead, but don't know we're ahead? If a club hits and he has AA/KK/QQ/JJ(maybe) with no club, we're not betting and neither is he. If a 9 or 7 hits he might get scared and find a fold, even though we would still know our hand is good literally always. What if an Ace hits and he has KK/QQ/JJ? Even worse, what if an Ace hits and he just keeps barreling with AK???

We're only crushed by AcKc and we have outs vs that hand. We're slightly behind in a flip vs overpairs + a club, but it's still profitable to get it in on the flop due to the $ already in the pot preflop.

He is unlikely to fold flop unless it's an outrageous size. Not that I would have a hand like 109 offsuit, but he probably thinks I'm raising a lot of draws on a board like this. He's giving action with overpairs with or without a club. You get paid on the flop, raise it up.

I'm pretty sure it's an unwritten poker rule that if you get it in with bottom two vs an overpair you lose 100% of the time.

I'm not ruling it out, just giving a baseline standard 3! range.

Our equity doesn't really change vs. the AQ combos, it's basically the same as AK. Giving him TT does hurt, but that's somewhat of a cooler and we're getting stacked anyway.

This particular hand it'll be runner runner Broadway.

Yes I think this is deffo the best course. Not sure I like calling the 3! pre though unless we feel we have good control over V postflop. I would generally want to be deeper than 102 blinds effective.

I don't think we can find a fold with the button a less than 3x 3! And narrow villian range

lol. not this.

bottom two on this board is so vulnerable. need to see the turn before you pop it.

If you call the flop bet the pot is now at $185 and you have $420 behind.

its a coin-flip

so the question is do you want to flip for $470 or see the turn and go from there.
yes there is always the possibility a scare card to you hits and he pushes you off.

if there was only a 2 flush I would push but with the 3 flush I call and see.
will I sometimes end up being pushed off incorrectly; maybe
will V get away from the hand on turn where V may have called the flop shove; maybe

I prefer to get it in when way the fav and not on a flip . better spots will come

So after a post review of how I played this hand I realized I was not clear on the fundamentals behind my actions, and immediately got super excited to learn something. Figured it out best I could and posted here to see if anyone could reinforce or disprove. Great way to go from understanding concepts to knowing them..if u get what I mean.

So first we are not flipping on the flop...there are just as many non over pairs he is not folding. Plus the few times imo he shows up with 1 AK types. So not only do we have a range advantage. A crap load of turns suck for us forcing us and or him to shut down and or let him realize what ever equity he may have.

For those reasons alone This is clearly a flop raise.

Or you can under-rep your hand, and make him think he's value betting what is actually a worse hand OTT or force him to keep bluffing when his equity shrinks considerably.

If he does realize his equity on the turn, he was probably going to call a raise on the flop anyway, so you saved yourself some money by not raising flop.

Either way, I think things become way clearer OTT for you and you can see what he does first.

It's not really my thing to slow roll in a 3! Pot when I know I have an equity advantage, currently the best hand and half the turn cards suck and unless you can show some math that shows me y it should be my thing it's not gonna be my thing

Fold pf to the 3 bet. We don't know if he has finally gotten tired of you raising him continually and is 3 betting ligher or has a monster. So this time you give him a small 3BB win when in reality you don't want to play a big pot with your hand. If he starts 3 betting you more frequently, then you can move to take much more money from him by 4 betting.

As played, bottom two pair isn't a monster, especially on this board. You're most likely ahead at the moment. Time to start shoving the money in when he's most likely to call. If you wait for a "safe" turn, he more likely to fold to a good bet.

OK, so it looks like you already have your mind made up. Why are you asking for different opinions if you know you're right?

Uh .. okay if you say so.

Way to unwittingly make an argument for raising.

your response along with the fact you called his 3-bet pre indicates you like to flip.
great I LOVE being at tables with 2-3 of you guys

Its not super wrong to raise flop its just not the way I or other winning players would handle the situation.
not trolling , baiting or insulting, you asked for input and you are getting a lot contrary to what you feel.

you are correct he is more likely to call flop raise than a scary turn but not the hand you want to stack off with here

No so much a fan of flipping, huge fan of winning.

Would be glad to learn this a fold pre and would agree if we were oop but as far as I know this is standard call. As we have a positional and info advantage.

Yes I see lots of folks telling me different.
I see them making statements saying I'm afraid, I haven't done the work to know what to do...lets wait til we are somewhere where I do know where I am.

Meanwhile back at the ranch, I see strong posters bringing math saying this why we raise the flop. With no one posting math to the contrary.