Quote:
Originally Posted by SABR42
Bet/call turn.
Sabr, once again, comes in and manages to convince me to rethink my conclusions.
So I thought alot more about this hand and am comfortable narrowing villain's range to A
K
or 3 combos of AA containing a
AK 1) preflop line makes sense, 2) near pot sized bet on flop makes sense. 3) the speech on turn then checking makes sense (he wants to scare hero to not bet so he gets a free card) 4) turn CRAI: possible..villain may feel hero won't pay off when a
hits river. CRAI gives villain 30% pot odds and he has anywhere between 12-15 outs..Any FE would just be bonus
AAx:: 1) preflop makes sense 2) flop bet is a bit high, but w/e 2) Turn check: Villain isn't alway going to check AA here. Villain will likely continue the betting lead with AA because hero has mostly (if not all) overpairs that will keep calling as long as no scare cards hit.
Also, villain (most players) cannot logically conclude that a marked deviation from the standard line of betting can be massively +EV. This train of thought isn't feasible for most players in the heat of the moment.
Also, turn check CAN in all likelihood get checked through, so villain loses on a street of value.
So, maybe discounting villain to 1 combo of A
Ax that takes checks turn.
1 combo of A
K
and 1 combo of A
Ax
When we do the EV calculations using these two ranges, bet/call with QQ is +EV