Local $2/$5 underground game, small player pool so everyone has lots of history with everyone else. This hand went down at about 3:15 in the morning. Game has been running since 7:00 p.m., we played 10 handed most of the night but now we’re down to six handed with three competent players, one loose-passive reg, and two fish sitting on fairly deep stacks who are the reason the game hasn't broken yet.

Villain ($1,500, BB): Late 40’s white guy, TAG-ish reg, probably one of the more competent players in the local player pool. Prefers PLO, but still a winning player at NLHE.

Hero ($1,040, UTG): Mid-30’s white guy, Villain views me as a generally nitty player who is capable of occasionally getting out of line and running big bluffs with air. I think Villain considers me to be a bit of a noob but still recognizes that I'm one of the few competent players at the table. Hero is stuck tonight but has recouped about a buyin over the past hour, Villain is aware of this.

Recent history between Hero and Villain:
HH1 (about a month ago): Villain limps UTG, three more limpers from MP, Hero raises to $35 from the BTN with AA, BB calls, Villain calls, two limpers call. Flop is 722. Checks around to Hero, Hero bets $105, BB folds, Villain checkraises to $250 (leaving himself $265 behind), Hero ships, Villain calls with A2 and doubles up through Hero.

HH2 (two weeks ago): Hero opens to $25 from UTG with TT, folds to Villain in the BB who 3bets to $65, Hero calls. The flop comes A93, Villain checks, Hero checks. Turn is the T, Villain checks, Hero thinks for about 10 seconds and bets $115, Villain thinks for about 5 seconds and checkraises to $415, Hero thinks for about 20 seconds and calls. River is the 6, Villain quickly announces all in, Hero tank calls and Villain turns over AA.

OTTH:
Hero opens to $25 UTG with QQ, folds around to Villain in the BB who 3bets to $75, Hero calls.

Flop ($150): 973.

Villain bets $125, Hero thinks for around 5 seconds and calls.

Turn ($400): 3

Villain tanks for around 30 seconds, asks Hero how much he's playing (Hero doesn't answer but lifts his arm to give Villain a clear view of his stack), and checks. Hero ???

From your hand histories Villain appears to play his strong hands fast once hero shows interest in the hand.

In this hand villain likely has a strong hand to 3! nitty utg open. It is 6-handed so I would read V as wider than KK+ and some bluff raises. Maybe QQ+ AK and A9s-A2s K9s-K2s if he is polarised (which he will be if hero folds to a lot of 3! or fit/folds flop in 3! pots). I think V doesn't 3! JJ TT 99 because Hero isn't a huge spewy whale.

Therefore I think V's most likely hand is AXdd/KXdd and he is reading hero for an overpair he is prepared to check (with a bit of threatening chat to help hero do so!).

Since V looks like he is trying to get a free card OOP I would disappoint him by betting around half pot on the turn.

Villain seems to be a little sneaky though so I wouldn't put it passed him to do this as an elaborate bluff at having a draw to get hero to bet turn so V can get in a bluffy looking x/r with KK+. Therefore I would probably b/f the turn keeping $600 back to play another hand with.

If V calls my turn bet I would check behind river whether diamond or non diamond falls. I would fold to a bet on a diamond, Ace or King.

Interesting spot. I think a lot of it depends on what you think he is 3! with in bb preflop. Range?

Not really sure what i'd do here? Probably betting ~225/calling a shove... spiking a Q otr. EZ game

I would check this back. There aren't many draws in villain's range and this is a spot where I feel you could value own yourself more than getting value from weaker. He should continue betting with JJ

If the V limp/calls preflop with A2o UTG then I wouldn't characterize him as TAG-ish nor particularly competent. 😛

I'd actually fold QQ to that 3-bet here, unless I knew the V would 3b wider than QQ+ and AK. Not sure if that's the case for this V.

As played, I agree JJ keeps betting, so I'd check the turn.

I think KK+ keep betting but I'm not convinced JJ does. I'm not even convinced JJ 3bets preflop.

Once nitty hero calls the 3bet villain is thinking JJ/QQ are a big part of hero's range, along with smaller pocket pairs, AK and some big suited hands.

After hero calls flop villain will discount sets and reduce hero range to KK-TT AKdd-ATdd.

I think villain may lump JJ/TT in with his over(s)+FDs in trying to get a free card on turn. Does this seem too unlikely to you guys?

If you don't know what to do if you get check/raised then check. Any bet will put you into "pot committed" territory. I would check and call most rivers (or bet small if checked to).

If turn goes ch ch then, unless we bink, I'm folding river to a bet, given the little history between them

If we are checking back turn and folding river I think we should have folded the flop. If that's the case we're just set mining preflop. That is possible since we only have to call $50 with nearly $1000 effective stacks.

We obviously have to change this plan if V starts 3betting with any regularity.

Thanks for the responses everyone. Here's the rest of the turn action:

Turn ($400): 973 3

Villain tanks for around 30 seconds, asks Hero how much he's playing (Hero doesn't answer but lifts his arm to give Villain a clear view of his stack), and checks. Hero tanks around 30 seconds and bets $230. Villain tanks for over a minute and announces "all in". Hero has $660 left, and Villain covers. Hero ???

Your perceived range to villain looks identical to the range you assigned him by betting turn. Fold

This is pretty gross, but I can see villain doing this with AK as well.

If he has 99/77/KK+, then gg cooler but I call and reload here if he's ahead.

if I bet, it would not be to b/f.

How often approximately does villain 3 bet, OP? That's probably the most important factor in determining whether to call here. Villain's 3 betting range does not seem like it would be polarized in this spot, based on the hand histories provided (why limp/call A2s UTG and then 3 bet a UTG raiser with it in the big blind?) but you are the one with a lot of history with him.

A competent player would be bluffing here pretty frequently, but he can't be bluffing if he doesn't have hands in his range to bluff with. Also, it's strange that villain decided to c/r turn when he could easily take a bet/bet/bet line and get in stacks. If villain 3 bets at a pretty high frequency, I'm calling.

I would absolutely have checked behind to under represent my hand and pot control.
I'm calling most any bet on the river, and if checked to, I'll bet 1.2x pot to really polarize my range. I don't think diamonds matter at all on the river.

Bet/call turn.

Anyone advising checking turn for "pot control" probably doesn't really understand poker at all. There are reasons to check turn but it most certainly isn't for "pot control".

I agree the c/r turn line is strange but I think a strong player won't actually raise as a bluff that often vs a perceived nit who has put in around $400 and has $600 behind. In V's shoes I think hero cannot fold and has decided to commit with JJ QQ or KK. V should not expect to have a lot of fold equity IMO.

I don't like it much but I stick with my plan to b/f. We're only committed if our hand has enough equity against V's raising range to call profitably. If V raises AKdd AA KK (and some, IMO, unlikely sets) then hero doesn't have enough equity even given the good odds on offer. You can work through the maths yourself but I guess you have to add quite a few AXdd to V turn x/r range before QQ can call profitably.

I'd also add that l/c A2s UTG doesn't preclude using AXs as part of a polarised 3bet range from the blinds or anywhere else. People can be strong players overall but make some weird plays occasionally or just have one or two strange ideas. I think V will use a polarised 3bet range even OOP if he perceives H to be nitty. Therefore V can have a load of AXdd in his range. I just think he doesn't make the turn x/r play with that many of them. Something about the prior hand histories makes me think V is sneaky and this is a made hand pretending to be a bluff.

I could be entirely wrong of course! It has been known

I agree with all of this, except I would check turn back...In before someone flames me for "pot control"...it's not for pot control...it's because I can't find enough weaker hands in villain's range that will call a bet. I also have a sneaky suspicion this is either 99s full, or AAx

Flat flop raise in Hand 1. Flop is arguably a check against very good, aggro villains, but doubt that's the case and cbet is very very standard, especially with no relevant suits.

OTTH:

I guess preflop call is fine IP, but we're proceeding very carefully here. Turn is a check AINEC.

Post-grunch:

C'mon people, this is UTGvBB between TAGs. Looking to stack off here with QQ is really bad. And oh btw, we're 200bbs deep.

Preflop AND flop are closer to folds than turn is to a bet ... much less a bet/call.

^ but it is short handed now. Admittedly hero is perceived as nit so maybe I'm putting too many AXdd in V's 3! range and therefore in his turn checking range.

Ah, I'll admit that "UTG" in a (generally) FR subforum short-circuited me and I forgot that we're 6-handed.

I'm still proceeding with caution when I have a nitty image and villain hasn't shown an ability to 3! light. And if his preflop 3b doesn't ring alarm bells as much as it would if it were UTGvBB 9-handed, then his flop sizing sure should.

Even if we put a lot of Axdd in his range, b/c'ing turn doesn't really accomplish much when we're SA/WB. We're playing more perfectly against his range when we check back turn and make sure the river isn't an A/diamond before committing more chips.

This is the advantage of position. Don't let him end the hand on the turn.

I think we need more information on villain's 3betting tendencies. Villain makes a pretty strong move 3betting an utg raise. We need to know (or at least) guess if villain 3! with JJ or TT.

I wouldn't bet the turn because only TT/JJ call with worse. AK is way behind and won't call a bet. AA/KK will call or shove. You have position. I'd use it, see a river card, and evaluate villain's action. A c/r has plenty of FE due the stack sizes on the turn. You have to protect your stack 200BB deep more than protecting your equity.

Villain only has one AKdd semi-bluff in his range since you block both AQdd and KQdd. I'm assuming villain wouldn't 3! lite with Axs. Your history with villain indicates that he only c/r with very strong hands. Has he ever c/r bluffed? And again, would he 3! with JJ/TT? As played, I think the evidence suggests a fold.

Can you expand on this?

I think of pot control as trying to get to showdown with a marginal hand. QQ vs villains range seem somewhat marginal, and would like to minimize instances of getting 200bb in with QQs as an overpair.

Is my line of thinking too nitty?