I feel like pre and flop don't need as much discussion so I didn't feel the need to make this a full on PAHWM.

$500 effective with main villain, 8 handed. This is literally the first hand of a new table so there are no reads.


OTTH

+1, HJ, and CO limp. Hero raises to $40 OTB J J and BB, HJ, and CO call.

Flop ($167): J 6 2. X to hero who bets $55 and only HJ calls.

Turn ($277): A. HJ checks. Hero?

Check here. You won’t get action from hands that you crush and you don’t want to have a raise if he made a flush. Sets and 2pr will often lead to protect. He may have a low to middle pair here and even if he has a club your in good shape. Your check on the turn May embolden him to turn his hand into a river bluff. I would check with intent of calling non club rivers.


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Do you only bet 1/3 put with all your range on the flop? With no other draws than a flush, you need to charge that draw more. Not saying go crazy and blow them away, but you are lacking value on the table for sure. I suggest around $100ish.

Since there are very few hands that will call your 50, AMD most that will should also call larger this is a clear value leak.

Turn is a check, as anything you stop beat will certainly fold to a bet, and you can evaluate rivers. Because your flop bet was so small you are going to struggle to get the stacks in unless you boat up over a flush should he have some random Ax 2p hand.

Agree with bigger on the flop for value if we do bet. The case Jx or flushdraws arent folding, so mwemight as well build this pot up for value when we flop the joint like this.

Flushdraw completing is obviously the worst card in the deck for us as i believe flushdraws is making up a huge bulk of villains check-calling range on this flop. I am checking back for pot control/not risking being blown off our potenial full house equity by a big check-raise from villain if we do bet the turn here.

TBF to 67o, his standard flop bet size is 1/3 pot across his entire range and board textures. He does this to gather loose calls from people with second pair, A-high, etc and fold out others cheaply. He considers this to be greater +EV than a larger bet. I disagree with him, but both are opinions, not based on numbers.

I'd check the turn. If he has has the flush, you want the free card. If he doesn't, he isn't going to feel good about calling again unless he has another set or a single club. Odds are extremely low he has a set of aces.

I guess we should X w/o any reads. Theoretically, he shouldn't have many large flush combos given the configuration pre-flop. But, we have no info and he can a bunch of the smaller combos.

It's kinda annoying but check is the best move. A bet just pushes a lot of mediocre hands out and a bet runs the risk of getting raised.

This is a situation where you can justify a bet with a worse hand as a pure bluff. With your actual hand though you want to see the river and showdown. You want to see the river because you have a decent chance of boating up and making some good money from a flush. You want to see a showdown because there are a lot of hands in play that you beat.

I, too, do not like the small bet on the flop but I've said it a million times. Time to check, but I think we have to call a bet on the river unless it's another club.

Bet small on the turn to maybe shove on the river. Villain should have some pair+flush draw combos and two-pair hands that can call turn. You can't chicken out and play passively with sets in spots where the SPR is super low. By checking turn you still lose a lot of money if he has a flush and bets the river because your hand will be too good to fold on most runouts. By betting turn you're still gonna lose a lot of money when he has a flush, but at least you get value from his marginal hands and get the money in before some action-ruining cards come on the river like another club.

Checking turn would be better if the SPR is high because getting checkraised in that spot is a lot worse; if you call and don't improve on the river he can punish you by putting in another big bet on the river. But here when you only have about $400 left behind you can easily call it off if he checkraises because it's reasonable for him to check-jam worse for value like a lower set or two-pair for protection/to realize his equity, plus you still have about 20% equity if he has a flush. Add on to this that a lot of people are unbalanced and will just donk their flushes on the turn, meaning that you don't have a lot to be afraid of.

If you look at solvers you can see this concept (the ability to get the money in light when the SPR is low) in action when you look at 3-bet pots where the 3-bettor just goes bet-bet-shove with top pair or two-pair even when the flush gets there on the turn/river.

Also, it's definitely theoretically correct to bet small on the flop because of the logarithmic relationship between your bet size and the per-player folding frequency in multiway pots, especially with top set when you block top pair. The only reason you would bet bigger is if you have a read that the players in the hand are stations, but you said this was the first hand at the table so it's probably correct to go small.

I disagree with Blue Spade about most hands will call $100 that call $55. I don't think we can count on pairs between J-6 to call $100, but I do think we can count on them to call $55. Gutshots may also call $55 but almost certainly won't call $100. Also any possible 6x and 2x in the hand I think may call $55 but I don't expect to call $100.

Everyone says check besides Hydra. Interesting. After thinking about it post session, I was wondering if we should bet this turn because we bet small on the flop and he could easily have an A6/A2 hand, or get sticky with 77-TT with a club.

I did end up checking though.

River ($267): 3. Villain bets $100. Hero? I'm not considering folding. I would never consider jamming if he bet even a little bigger, but this sizing puts me in a weird position about whether to call or shove.

I call. This is why I check the turn. If he has a flush, we are doomed either way. If he doesn't, our check might get him to bet the river as a bluff (or what he thinks is the best hand besides a flush). Also, shoving just folds his two pair, which we are ahead of anyway. I don't think he can call with anything but a flush.

If you had more info, maybe you can shove, but I don't think it's wise vs. an unknown.

I don't think we can make this conclusion versus a LLSNL unknown

As much as we can make the conclusion that he'll call with worse.

Edit: FWIW, I lean toward my thinking re unknowns unless I get a vibe. Owning myself vs. an unknown is the worst

It would lean more towards the other way because the median player isn't laying down two pair if they bet here

We can agree to disagree

To me, the type of player who bets two pair here knows it's a semi-bluff and that they are planning to fold to a raise and most median players check hoping for a showdown, but that's my experience. I guess I'd rather give credit until I know otherwise.

I hope you were right!

Ehh, now that I think about it, it’s not that bad to check turn planning on betting or bluffcatching river. There’s not much worse he can call with when you have two jacks. If he’s donking tons of his flushes on the turn then betting is definitely better when he checks though

Also when we have 10-j or q-j and we bet 100 turn pot is like 360 so are spr is really low with a strong but far from nutted hand. And we are making some really high variance decisions on turn. Sure with top set bet more. But do we want to let everyone know exactly what we have by our betsize?

Turn we aren’t deep enough to fold are hand so I like betting maybe like 40 percent pot so we give ourselves the option to fold in case we have the dead read he has flush. (Though we should call anyway)

It seems this thread has run its course. Thank you for the responses. I just called, which I wonder if it's too weak, especially versus his sizing...He had J 7, which probably isn't calling a shove (but who knows), but especially with my small flop sizing and his small river sizing, I wonder if I should've gone for more value otr.

I think you got as much as you could and as much as you were going to get.

In other words, w/ J7o, he's likely folding to a turn bet or a river shove, but your turn check got the bet from him on the river.

Wow, yeah I feel like you won the max. Also, lock the doors.