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2-5 PF Bet Sizing with AA 2-5 PF Bet Sizing with AA

12-10-2013 , 02:48 PM
Flatting only seems like a good idea when the flop comes low. Any TJx or JQx or JKx type flop is either going to kill the action or scare you off this deep.
2-5 PF Bet Sizing with AA Quote
12-10-2013 , 03:20 PM
I think flatting is probably a pretty big mistake here.

V2 cold called our 3b, with V1 still yet to act. He should have a very strong hand.

V1 put in a 4b from UTG. He should also have a very strong hand.

IMO, we're up against the top of their ranges here. 5b in order.

A small 5b should get a call from V2, and V1 should be shoving here. IMO, much better then flatting.

I'd like to see a range estimate for our villains.

I pretty much have V2 on TT+ and all AK,AQ. He's probably going to flat with the bigger part of his range and some AK combos.

V1's range can be wider, but I think its realistically QQ+ and some AK combos. 10% or less of the time is his range wider.
2-5 PF Bet Sizing with AA Quote
12-10-2013 , 03:43 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by wj94
Flatting only seems like a good idea when the flop comes low. Any TJx or JQx or JKx type flop is either going to kill the action or scare you off this deep.
I'm assuming V2 is almost always going to fold because he is described as tight and solid. Tight and solid players may occasionally cold call a 3b, but they're almost never the 3rd player into a 3-way 4b pot. There's the chance that V2 is very strong with KK and is sitting in what he thinks is a dream scenario, but for the time being, I'm just assuming he folds.

The flop doesn't have to come low for flatting to be a good idea. When hero flats the $300 and V2 folds, it's a ~$700 pot. V1 is described as raising a lot and following through OTF. Knowing this, we can expect him to 4b lighter, so let's just call it 99+ but weighted mostly towards JJ+. Given that it's LOLive poker, I'd say even with a very aggressive PF player, this is going to be QQ+ at least half the time. Quite literally, the only flop I'm not shoving over is going to be KQx. Obviously I'd feel much better if the board comes 338, but I'm still shoving over QT6 and the like.

5b gives V1 a chance to fold a hand he is CLEARLY in love with. Why is everyone trying to let him off the hook by 5b? Being IP here basically assures us that V1 is going to put more money into the pot anyway, so it really doesn't have to be PF. It seems HIGHLY likely that he's looking for 2 outs and he's not getting the odds to draw at that right now anyway, so let him take a flop and commit himself or at the very least let him b/f 100bb.
2-5 PF Bet Sizing with AA Quote
12-10-2013 , 04:00 PM
If you are going to raise, just say all in. It still looks strong, but not as strong as $650-$800.

Tanking then flatting is okay if you are certain that V2 is going to fold. I want the aggrotard cbetting me heads up, not 3-ways.
2-5 PF Bet Sizing with AA Quote
12-10-2013 , 04:20 PM
Yeah, I mean, if we say that V2 is still a viable player in the hand, then it changes somewhat, but still not much. You're looking at having 4 outs against you vs 2 which I know is twice as many, but I'm still shoving pretty close to all flops anyway, so it's of minor significance.

V2 still being considered in the hand means: a) the read that he's tight and solid was wrong or b) he has a monster that he's going to 5b shove with. It doesn't change a lot IMO - either he shoves and we get it in with him (or 3-way) or he flats and we still shove the vast majority of flops.
2-5 PF Bet Sizing with AA Quote

      
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