Yeah, this makes sense. I've started to do more betting turn in position and checking back rivers against players who I'm afraid will sense weakness and bomb river with air (which is common among MAAGs). But in this case after the flop donk it seems like that's unlikely.

I’m not convinced there are that many hands we get value from. Ac7x and maybe some straight draws?


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I'm calling flop and xb turn. I'm folding river to a big bet unless it's a K, 9 or A

The discussion has died down, so I'll move on.

I think we should've bet the turn. I honestly got really confused post flop because I've never seen this line before. In real time I thought this was the nut worst turn card. After the fact, I just don't think he's got that strong of a hand when he checks the turn. I think we can get value from OESD and weirdly played hands with a club in them like 8 8x when we bet 1/3 ott, and have a super easy fold if he raises.


Anyways, I think I made a mistake and checked.

River ($362): 5. Villain checks. Hero?

1. Bet 180.

2. Get raised.

3. Realize V has all 12 combos of 97,77,44 that will often take this line, and he has far fewer combos of bricked straight draws, and it really sucks to get raised (which is why we checked back turn).

"It really sucks to get raised" isn't a consideration to be making when a raise is almost never a bluff.

I don't understand how we are supposed to get called by worse here, and that plus a combination of how many hands might be waiting to raise us, means I want to check back and see what hand Villain plays this way.

Agreed.

The reason I said we we check back turn is because V has so many combos of FH, and he has almost no flushes, and his straight draws now have significantly less equity, especially when we hold Kc. Flushes will keep betting turn.

Actually, now that I look at this hand again, I see Villain should rarely have a flush on the river. Only if he runs into it with 67o or 8xTc or 8x6c (and I don’t think the 1.5x flop donk bet is indicative of a naked straight draw). Then he has all the boats.

I think I just check river.

V limp called pre and will have a fair amount of 9x hands without a club that would take this exact line. 97s likely goes for value on the river if he was trapping turn, same with 44/77 or nut clubs.

I agree with calling flop and checking back the turn here. Betting turn small seems to only get value from 55/66/88 with a club or a strangely played 7x that is sticky. So I’m ok with betting turn small if you know your opponent well enough that he isn’t trapping or checking a hand like T9 that might be scared of the flush.

River you pretty much have to go for value, but what hands are calling you that played it this way? Not much other than lower flushes, or maybe trip 9s no club from a stationy player. I would bet fairly small, around $100-150.

IDK, the 1.5x flop donk bet screams 2pair+ or a monster (12+ out) combo draw. Don’t think I’ve ever seen it before with just top pair on a low board, unless the player is a manic, and if the player is a maniac they should have demonstrated that by now and we could have made a note.
Smaller flushes generally keep betting turn for protection.
Sometimes we can get value from JJ/TT with a club, so if we do decide to bet, I agree with NuklearWinter that we’d better make it small, like 100-125.

Bet 100, maybe get a crying call from 9x