V is a mid 40's Asian pro. Sitting two to our right. Plays a limpy game, sees a lot of flops. Have not seen him make any ''big moves'' in 20plus hours of playing with him at $1/2, but would have to imagine he is capable of it. I literally don´t remember him ever 3 betting. He limps JJ and AQ up front, sometimes AK. For sure he has good instincts and can read hands well. Seems to do a lot of hero calling. Someone to be respected but not feared. Very talkative while in the hand. $1000

Hero has a TAG image, occasionally can be a donkey. Taking at shot at 2/5 and V knows this. $1900

Most of table has $200-$400. One young guy to our right is new to the table has $1300. He is the main mark.

V was actually playing shortish, but as soon as this guy sat down he called for chips. So he is playing mostly with ''money behind''. $900something.

Hero opens AA UTG to $25, 2 callers behind, V calls in SB.

***V has a wide range here. Broadways, pairs, connecting cards, suited connectors/gappers, suited aces.

($100) Flop: KQJ

Hero bets $50, folded around to V who makes it $160, says someline like ''$160 for now'' and reminds hero that he has chips behind, hero calls.

($420) Turn: Q

V bets $200, hero?? Plan??

Without a better read on villain I guess fold is probably best. Flop is all over hero's EP raising range, villain check/raised flop and continued on turn.

If villain is the sort who will continue bluffs then I would call and see what villain does on river. Plan on river is to check behind unless hero catches an ace or Ts. That isn't a lot of outs but it isn't clear that hero needs to improve to win. There are a few I would give up too on the flop because they are never making a move on such a scary board.

Call turn and probably fold to any sizeable river bet on a brick.

No comment on the hand cuz I'm on mobile but congrats on taking a shot at 2/5 kookie. Hope it went well

I just lost a long comment.

God this ****er is uncomfortable based on speech tell, unless directly correlated otherwise. Wtf. Is As Qd the same as As Ah here otf? Pretty much. Unfortunately the Qh is a gin card for him, and then he shut the **** up. Seems pretty close. This is soul read city brother. You have a huge tell, either he's ****ed or you're ****ed. But keep in mind that you can just as easily have KK or KQdd as AAs, and it sure as **** sound like he knows so. My bet is that he's full or has KJ, but yeah, hand frequency says full. Fml fold yo


My bet would be shove flop blocking the nuts and w equity, he never has it and he seems like slightly scared money

You've gotta 3bet that flop. Turn I would just fold.

The speech is what's throwing me off. Why is he trying to discourage calls?

Grunch:

Ranging v on huge made hands. Given the villains description he's not turning TT into a bluff. We have the NFD so he's skewed towards Broadway and boats. I let it go begrudgingly.

I dont agree with a 3-bet here but I'm not 100% opposed. What hands do you think we can get value from that 1) are worse than ours, and 2) will call the 3-bet?

Edit: or are you going off strictly the amount of perceived equity we have?

I crunched our equity versus a range of two pair, sets, AK broadway and 98 suited and we have 58% equity (!) Removing AK, we still have 53%. It's a literal coin flip if we remove 98 suited. However once the Q falls OTT we only have 13%. So this is a fold as we need 24.3% equity to continue.

Going off equity, and the fact that this board crushes our range, so if V has a hand like KJ, it's very difficult for him to continue. Basically, 3betting forces V to either make a big mistake against our range or a big mistake against our exact hand with a lot of his holdings.

It would be interesting if you jammed flop - as he might fold a better hand.

He should probably fold all his 2 pair hands and you are never drawing dead if called.

As played i'm folding to that turn.

We're favorites over 2 pair, but it's still not bad if they fold.

Two pair isn't the entirety of v's range. In fact, it sounds like two pair is the bottom of this guy's range.

Dude run some numbers. There's 9 combos of reasonable flushes. 1 has us drawing dead. 1 has one of our outs covered. Those are the only hands we're in bad shape against. The rest of his range is either 2 pair or sets and the occasional ATs. There's only 6 combos of sets and they only affect our equity against his range by 1%. Overall we're flipping against his range so it makes sense to make the most of our fold equity against the heavier part of his range which is two pair. Even though it's the bottom of his range, assuming he is never bluffing or making this play with a pair plus the Ts, it is still the heaviest part of his range. I also think we could have fold equity against hands like JJ, 4s5s and 5s6s etc...

So assuming his range is KQo,KJs+,QJs, QQ, JJ, ATs, Ts8s+, 9s7s+, 8s6s+, 7s6s, 6s5s, and 5s4s he has 33 combos. If he folds his 15 two pairs to a shove that means we win the 310 in the pot 45% of the time. If he calls with every other hand, we have 34.6% equity against his range. So we bet $825 and have $640 equity in the pot. So 55% of the time we lose $185. If he calls us no matter what, it's still +ev because we're a favorite over every two pair hand. If he folds more hands like low flushes it's even better for us. Either way, shoving flop is clearly + ev.

His comments suggests he doesn´t want to get raised, right? So he most likely has a flush, two pair, AT, or some kind of weird semibluff with the 10. I kind of had my doubts that he would raise two pair here. I didn´t think I had a lot of fold equity. Given his style and my image I think he sandbags with nutish hands like KK,QQ,T9s, maybe even JJ, planning to raise the turn mostly.

Call me a donkey, but I thought long and hard about raising the turn here. He will snap fold all of his flushes, should hero fold JJ. I don't think he is the type to count combos, but QJ should be an easy fold here as well (only beats the 1 combo of JJ).

Results:

You got owned bro

Yeah. Maybe. That´s why I posted it.

Possibly my weakish flop sizing induced him? I mean, if I didn´t hold the ace of spades I´d be betting more than 1/2PSB.

Someone earlier in the thread advised calling the turn and folding the river. If he was bluffing the turn, why would he not continue on a river blank? Calling the turn and getting bluffed out of the pot on the river seems really bad.

Not a bad spot to check flop