Hero effective stack of about $750. Been playing with villain 1-2hrs and I haven't been involved much. He has also appeared to not be involved much. Seems tight mostly. He's opened a few hands. I did see him play one hand poorly after the flop that had me questioning his skill/experience. Don't recall details but it was very suspect.

Two limps from MP including villain.
Hero on the button raise to $30 with QdQh
Only villain calls. HU to flop:

934xxs - Pot ~$65

Villain donk leads $50
Hero raise to $175. Villain calls quickly.

Turn Js

Villain donk leads again for $150
Hero?


I pause for 30secs or so and look at his bet and he says outloud "it's $150" and I picked up a pretty solid live read that he was weak. His line is such nonsense. I don't see any tight and reasonably aware players donking twice like this with 33 or 44. He would've opened pre with 99 or JJ surely based on player type and my reads. This feels an awful lot like 56ss and possibly even A2ss or A5ss that went nuts. Not sure if we want to shove here for about $400 total or flat and call off on a lot of rivers.

Thanks

jam - you aren't going to like about 18 rivers

Not sure I like the flop raise tbh. Do we really want to play for stacks on this board given the action? This type of V would absolutely play, 33, 44, and 99 this way. Even 34s is in his range. By raising you just committed yourself which is bad when we are 150BB deep in a single raised pot.

On this board texture, his donk-lead on the flop is primarily a marginal made hand looking to see where he's at, which will fold to a raise, or it's a monster. Usually, raising will fold out all worse hands and only get action from hands that beat us. He can have 4 combos of 56s here which we don't know for sure will call a raise or A2s/A5s ( definitely folds on the flop). There's just not enough combos of draws we can get value from which makes raising super questionable.

his turn bet could easily just be messaging the pot with his 2pair+ setting up an easy river shove. It's not a terrible line at all as he is just pricing you in and milking you since your hand is face up as an overpair

AP, we have to just puke GII and hope he is terrible and overplays a marginal made hand/ or he picked up equity on the turn. We need to know the suit distribution on the flop to see if the 9s is out there.

But seriously, just flat the flop. Can still get 2 streets against 9x, middle pair, draws, keeps his bluffs in, and you also save yourself from getting stacked from the times you are smoked.

Good points here thanks. I didn't realize at the time that my hand becomes face up after I raise. I didn't think it through fully. Was mostly thinking I don't want to give up the lead and that I don't mind taking it down right here.

Anyone else?

If you're raising the flop for value from draws then you need to jam the turn. If you're calling the flop to keep your range wide, you can make different decision on the turn based on V's action. Being in position is fun.

Flop is ambitious for sure. Not that I don't think we're ahead range v range, but I'm not thrilled with the portion of his range that wants to gamble for all of it on the flop.

AP his turn bet is smaller than your flop raise. I'd take it for exactly what it looks like: a bet trying to avoid facing a larger bet. Give him the largest bet possible.

Not fan of raising flop. Hard to balance it. Bloats pot.

Plus I love guys that donk into PFR. Spent a lot of time studying it. Have no issues destroying their ranges.

Over pairs is flat calling here. Along with flush draws, likely raising flush draws with 2 overs.

Results:

You should have shoved when he checked river, nobody is checking 2p+ there

Ya we really screwed ourself out of value there. TAGfish are never going to fold top pair at "such a great price".

Agreed. Like call flop, call turn, shove river against suspected weak sizings sounds great. If he starts hammering we can abandon ship and just call.

Especially when all the draws bricked