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2/5 overpair and blocker to FD facing flop raise wet board 300bb deep 2/5 overpair and blocker to FD facing flop raise wet board 300bb deep

04-21-2014 , 07:27 AM
V seems tag. Has played about 2 hands in two hours, one of which was a call, call, shove line with top two IP against a bad laggy player. INSTA-checked behind another hand OTR with possible straight and flush, so he's not vbetting thin as far as I can tell.

I'm perceived as tight. Have been mostly card dead; V has seen me four-bet the laggy guy with AA earlier, and snap a sstack shove on 642 two hearts with K9hh after opening and cbetting.

ES 1500

Hero opens UTG 20 KsKd, all call (6 handed).

Flop (115) 7d 3d 2c

Hero leads 80, folds to V in HJ snap verbalizes 180.

This seems like a textbook bet-fold deep, but I'm curious whether my sizing looks cbettish and whether I'm getting raised by draws in this spot, and if so, what sort of line I could take.
2/5 overpair and blocker to FD facing flop raise wet board 300bb deep Quote
04-21-2014 , 07:32 AM
Given the read, fold. Bet size on the flop is fine.
2/5 overpair and blocker to FD facing flop raise wet board 300bb deep Quote
04-21-2014 , 08:20 AM
As played, B/F $80 looks good. You have a big diamond which lessens the prob raiser is doing this w/diamond draw.

Pre - looks like you could go higher for add'l value.
2/5 overpair and blocker to FD facing flop raise wet board 300bb deep Quote
04-21-2014 , 09:45 AM
Preflop is probably too small if your getting six callers, but your flop sizing looks fine and fold to the raise looks right. Villain isn't going to think your c-betting air here betting into 6 villains, he is putting you on an over pair or a diamond draw. Given villain description your probably either facing a set, a nut flush draw or a combo draw, and the draws should be discounted. How much the draws should be discounted depends on players, positions and stack sizes. He may or may not have something like 5d4d in his range, and if he shows up with anything weaker then AdQd will depend on the player.

The raise sizing could be a clue here, it's small for the situation. What it means varies from player to player though. In a smaller pot this may be another over pair trying to find out where they are, but that move is highly unlikely from a tight player in a big pot. This could be a tip off that he is on a draw, or could mean he has a set and figures you for an over pair or air and doesn't want you to fold. For many it just means they don't size their bets correctly in big pots.
2/5 overpair and blocker to FD facing flop raise wet board 300bb deep Quote
04-21-2014 , 10:58 AM
Not folding to a flop raise on this board. I like calling flop and probably x/c turn and maybe river depending on the runout.
2/5 overpair and blocker to FD facing flop raise wet board 300bb deep Quote
04-21-2014 , 11:04 AM
Why can't described V have JJ TT 99 here and play it the same way? maybe even QQ if he is super TAG preflop.
2/5 overpair and blocker to FD facing flop raise wet board 300bb deep Quote
04-21-2014 , 11:09 AM
you bet into an entire sea of callers. this is not your standard c-bet. Even if V is doing this with Ax or 45, we are still not even a favorite.

V would have to be very bluffy for me to call here.
2/5 overpair and blocker to FD facing flop raise wet board 300bb deep Quote
04-21-2014 , 12:27 PM
This is gross because its not really a WAWB situation. ..V could certainly make this play with a combo draw here which puts KK even money at best. The problem with flatting here is theres really not many turn cards that will allow you to do much but check and then we're at the mercy of our opponent. I don't like flatting here....I'm probably folding this most of the time but I can also see some value in a 3 bet here. Nothing huge...maybe around 300 and I think that line gives you the best amount of info. Higher variance, which is why my nitty self probably folds but raising is better than calling.
2/5 overpair and blocker to FD facing flop raise wet board 300bb deep Quote
04-21-2014 , 05:13 PM
I don't think V is ever raise-folding this spot. If the board runs out gross (A/K/Q + paired board, or diamonds) then I think we have significant FE but that is banking on a live V folding a range of missed FD and underfulls.

Limon and Bart talked about the type of Villain that wants to see a "safe" flop before committing with JJ-QQ. Can we call, c/c turn/river to extract, in this case? I think the turn sizing would be indicative of overpair vs set vs draws, though I'm not sure what distinction would be made since live V can't really track pot size.
2/5 overpair and blocker to FD facing flop raise wet board 300bb deep Quote

      
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