Quote:
Originally Posted by ChrisV
You realise nobody ITT is advocating threebetting, everyone wants to fold. What we're saying is that if threebetting is no good here - and it isn't - there's no reason to expect calling to be good either. It has the same problem that the raiser's range is too tight. This is to do with the nature of AJo as a hand. There are hands it's OK to call in this spot but you don't just sort by equity against ATC to come up with them.
While you're railing against threebetting here, you're also saying "I intend to make money by bluffing the nit postflop". That's what over-realizing equity means, there's nothing else it can mean.
Your replies so far are just general poker tropes ("you can have weaker hands in position") and personal incredulity ("omg you can't fold AJ, it's top 8.5% of hands") whereas I'm posting specifics - such as that we're nearly a 3 to 1 underdog against a tight range preflop and that even a Jxx flop isn't that great for us. I mean look at my join date, yes I know that positional advantage is a thing, but it's not enough of a thing to handle being this big an underdog with a hand whose whole reason for existing is to flop one pair.
Edit: If being a 27% underdog and not really having any good flops you can hit were acceptable just because we're in position, we would be calling basically every hand on the button. Like, AJo is 27.8% against that range I posted and 32o is 24.1%. You don't want to fight tight ranges.
2 people argued it is a 3 bet or fold spot,....
I don't really particularly care what your join date it, what I am arguing is you can't overreact to a player being tight and completely abandon a reasonable strategy. You certainly don't want to go broke to a nit on a J high board but abandoning ship preflop is putting the cart way before the horse. You want to play your range reasonably and allow the hand to play out to an extent. If you deviate too far from your normal optimal strategy you will over correct to a point where you no longer have the ability to make decisions or make plays vs someone.
If you are unable to fold a decent hand when you actually hit the jack when you face multiple streets of aggression sure you might as well fold pre, but i don't develop a strategy around the idea that i can't play somewhat reasonably on later streets. Each step you want to make a reasonable decision and re-evaluate on later streets (as you well know).
What range are you flatting preflop with vs said nit? Where do you delineate your fold range and your call range. Vs a nit we hardly have a raising range so we don't really need to discuss that.
My flatting range would be roughly QQ-88, AQs-ATs, KTs+, QJs, AQo+ and would possibly add a small a few more PPs like 7's and 6's if I thought he was very tight but very sticky as well with the intention of trying to set mine a slightly higher % of the time. It is hard to imagine we have worse than 36% equity here so we don't need to make up that much post flop.