2/5, Sunday night.
This is an interstate casino where I rarely play. The only available limits are 2/5 and 5/5 and only two tables operate.
It's 9-handed and it's a tough, aggressive table, but with a couple of poor players thrown in the mix. Not ideal.
Hero buys in short for 60bb and has run stack up to 100bb. Solid, non-nit image.


Hero ($500) opens to $20 with KQss.
Three callers, including Villain (30yo Asian male, $500) in the MP who calls first. Blinds fold.

Villain only came to the table 4 hands ago. He raised the first three hands he played and only one went to a flop, he won the hand without showdown. Flat called this hand. There is no other information.

Flop ($87): K-J-8cc

Checked to Hero, bets $45 and is only called by Villain.

Turn ($177): 9c

Hero checks, Villain bets $150


What do you do?

Should Hero have led out turn?

4way that is a super dangerous board and the turn is one of the worst cards in the deck. If you folded here Id say you played it perfectly other then not betting more preflop.

Just because V may be a maniac doesn't mean hes going to go nuts with air on a super wet board 4way.

If you are at a tough table and you arent there to learn and are just trying to make money there is no reason to be sitting there btw.

Fold. Next hand.

Fascinating hand: thanks to OP for sharing!

Hero's preflop raise is standard. Maybe H could limp since V is raising very hand so far. But if H wants to open in EP, I think you have to make it bigger so you're not oop 4-way. Perhaps a bigger flop bet is warranted with FD on board.

AP: V seems like a tricky, splashy customer who's capable of making moves. The turn 9c is a great scare card for him. H has checked and we wouldn't check sets, KJ or a small flush here, or even AcKx and probably not AxKc either. So now V can make a move.

H appears capped after checking, V can have anything. This is a very complex, tricky spot.

We are ahead plenty here. But what river can we call? We have to fade A, Q, J,9,8 7 and all clubs - basically ~half the deck. So we get 2-1 on our turn call for the "option value" to fade half the deck on the river and win if a brick rivers. The decision tree is really complex. (This also assumes MHIG right now. We could be drawing thin or dead.)

V has ~300 behind. If we call turn, pot is 450. Let's assume we cannot lead any river. We will get 5-2 (half the time) on a river call when V jams scare-cards behind our river check. We will prevail at xx SD on brick rivers sometimes and call correctly his bluffs the other times. We may fold incorrectly some small % but we bink non-club K/T some small % too.

Instead, if we jam the turn, we offer V 2-1 on a call. His big clubs don't get odds to continue and his OESDs aren't getting the right price either. Of course, this allows him to play perfectly by folding his bluffs, weak draws and calling us when he's way ahead/nutted.

I think getting 2-1 on a call for the option of winning a coin toss otr is a good price if we have 50% equity now. We could do even better if we catch his bluff enough times. And I think we have 50%+ equity. It's a high-variance spot, so I don't mind a fold either.

Arguably, a b/f line ott might have been better. I hope more people comment bc this is a very cool hand.