Super standard boring spot.

Effective stacks 700.

4am at Aria. Hero has been playing for 2-3 hours and talking with an old friend that he unexpectedly happened to sit next to. Some talk about playing poker but we avoid talking shop for the most part. Hero has been playing reasonably tag but opened wide in spots against a terrible player - terrible player is now gone. Probably look competent, who knows. Definitely 3b once or twice and got table to fold.

Villain is 30s. Looks reggish but not pro. Understands the game well enough and was also targeting the fish. Seems a bit call-happy preflop even with the fish gone, but perfectly ok post. Hasn't played any sizable pots, no recollection of him making >$100 bets.

Fold, Hero UTG+1 with KK raises 25, fold, Villain MP2 calls, rest fold.

Flop (52): A86r

Hero bets 30 after 5 seconds. Villain calls after ~15 seconds.

Turn (110): 2 (rainbow)

Hero checks after 5 seconds. Villain tosses in one black chip after 10 seconds.

Hero? He's 100% good enough to pick up that my turn check is weak. Obviously not a ton of reads here, but does the sizing seem excessive by him?

I think the flop sizing is fine- its probably what you would have been betting if you had AJ+ also in this spot. The question really is if you should be betting this flop or not.


On the turn when he fires very close to full pott i believe we got to respect his bet and fold. Imo if he finds a bluff here with this turn bet with less than an A in his hand, well nice hand sir.

We have no reason to believe he exploits our tendencies unless similar spots happens several times against this same villain. If that happens we need to readjust properly of course, but thats not the case here with limited history the way i see it.

I would probably fold, given that this guy is pegged as competent. Sometimes he is bluffing you with 2nd-pair-type hands, but most of the time this is a weak Ace, two pair, or a flopped set.

Why are we betting the flop? What worse hands are calling? Super dry flop and he's calling with many players behind him yet to act - he's very Ace and pocket-pair heavy.

I don't mind the c-bet, but if I c-bet, I bet the turn. As played, fold is good. I would have to have a much better read to call or raise here.

Let's say he's in the top quartile of players - nothing amazing but absolutely good enough to interpret a flop or turn check by me as not having a (strong) ace. I cbet here probably 80-90% of the time, especially against someone who can do basic hand-reading.

The alternative to cbetting seems to be a c/f line, right? Or if you c/c flop, do you also call a blank turn?

It is possible of course that he is taking the pot away from you this excact hand: but as mentioned in my last post its not like he is exploiting us even if we fold this time around. What are we gonna do, call the 100$ bet on the turn and pray he shuts down on the river, and that we dont face a 200-300$ bet? Folding seems like the only thing appropriate at this point as i dont think villain is bluffing enough in this spot for us to profitably call with underpair to the ace.


However, i would observe this villain closely in the next pots i play against him and if neccesary deploy some readjustments to protect my C-bet flop and check the turn range.

I think if you are going to seriously consider calling this turn bet... then you should have led out turn and set your own price. If he doesn't have you beat he folds.

Check the flop. Betting doesn't fold out better and very rarely gets value from worse. As played, fold.

I'd C/C flop, hoping to get value from a V stab, as opposed to folding worse by betting. I'd check blank turn and fold as played. Our EP raising range includes ATss+/AA and a competent opponent knows that.

FWIW from my small sample, the black chip bet signifies strength more times than not. I have noted / called larger bluffs when a stack(s) of reds was pushed out.

Interesting. I was all set to fold to a ~60-80 sized bet. That size felt pretty value-y. But 100 seemed awfully steep, especially once I felt my hand was essentially face up. I usually don't see full PSBs in this situation honestly, across any tables. 1/2 - 3/4 PSBs are more the norm in this situation.

So basically I'm curious if anyone thought there was a sizing tell here, without much history. I mean, what is he betting this much with after he knows I'm weak? AJ+ ... why would villain encourage a fold so much?

You went with your read -- very often that's more important that what people say here.

This.

Two ways to skin this cat. C-bet and barrel the turn (strong line, forces him to have an A) or check-call flop, reevaluate on turn (weaker line but allows you to appear trappy and maybe get to a showdown more cheaply or extract value on the river with an underrepped hand).

Once you c-bet the flop and get called and check the turn, you have no idea where you are in the hand so you have to fold. Need to have a very good reason to believe he can lay down a weak A in order to put in a raise.

thanks, but maybe a dumb hand to post. was really curious if there was a purely objective basis to call down

probably checking the flop, as played I dont think I find a call down this early with the reads given. Most likely folding ott. You did say he was "call happy" though. If I do call ott I am probably calling otr. Nice call and WP if that was your plan throughout.

Why would we ever bet the flop and barrel the turn? Trying to get a low stakes player to fold an ace...?

Check flop. As played nice read but you're rarely good in this spot.

Flop bet is not fine. Check/call. Then probably check/fold turn unless the sizing is very small.