This is actually a very instructive and high frequency spot. Based on how it was played, I don't see how hero can call the river but I do believe there are ways to make the river decision easier.

1)While theoretically you should cbet this flop almost always, you should consider checking OOP exploitatively if villain has a tendency to bluff hand with no equity lik 89s or 109s.

2) I would recommend betting the turn. By checking the 10 turn you are putting yourself in a spot that villain doesn't have enough bluffs when he bets that turn (unless he is just floating with backdoors and going crazy). It is a very good board for the 3better so you should rarely get raised when you bet the turn plus you get value from pair +gutshots and sticky top pairs.

Good analysis doodoo.

I posted this hand because I wasn't sure if I was overcalling. I would take this line with AK and AA as well but of course villians don't know that.

I suppose I should also have mentioned that we were 6 handed, and I feel like AQo is just too strong to not squeeze here vs a (perceived) wide button open range.

Also some meta implications as the table was literally all regs and I'll probably be playing more with these guys in the future.


Looks like I need to get in the lab and do some work on these deeper spots

1. I don’t really have a strong disagreement here, but there is also a 3rd player that will/should impact range construction and make us want to 3b AQo more. Our overall 3b % might change as well, although I think that is in favor of flatting.
2. You are saying that 3b size decreases regardless of position? I have not used monker but that would be very surprising to me.
3. It’s fine to have gaps in range construction, although it’s good to be aware of what your range is vs what it should be so I appreciate your point here. My main point being though that not having those other hands means you disagree with range play on prior streets and not necessarily that hero is actually overcalling if calling with AQo.
4. Flop check is an exploit.

I think your adjustments should be standard vs 2/5 player pop tho

Thanks. Well I'm glad the call worked out for you - it is quite possible from an exploitative point of view that it is a marginally profitable call. But in theory it is a fold.

If you play with these guys a lot - you should note some showdown hands. For example if this guy is checking back a hand like ATs OTR. You know his river bets are more polarized so in turn the Q/J blockers go way up in value.

Than having a hand like AQ would be better than A4s here.

Look forward to more hands! You still playing online?

so i found some time to run this through GTOPlus

the way the hand played out given the ranges/sizings (i didn't give him QJo in my initial sim) gave was pretty ****ing GTO.

on the flop, its a range bet. Given a 33% and a 75% psb, the solver slightly prefers the larger bet the EV diff is zero.

on the turn its about 75/25 check/bet with AQo combos. And vilian is always supposed to fire for 2/3 pot with his 87 combos, and I'm supposed to fold about 50% of AQo combos

on the river i'm always checking if i checkcalled the turn, and villian is always blasting off with all 87 combos, and i'm always supposed to call



things do change a bit when I give him QJo though. I'm always checking turn in this sim, and he's still firing his 87 combos. on the river i'm always checking again and this time he's only jamming about 50% of the time with 87.



@DooDoo I haven't played online in about 2 months, I actually moved about 20 mins from the local casino so I thought i'd give some LOLive poker a shot. I'm looking to mix in some online though if for nothing more than to keep me studying and skills sharp. Not really sure how to study live poker ATM...its a different beast

Very interesting. Does the SIM always call river with AQo if you give him QJo in his 3bet calling range?

What about AJo?

its calling 50/50 with AQ and folding 60/40 with AJ if villian has QJo. as far as suits go, looks like it's folding more when holding the Ac. the flop i gave was AhKc8s. Pretty sure thinking back more that the King was a club (followed by the turn 10c putting up BDFD)

I call preflop. Even with a squeeze on the SB, AQo preflop out of position against an aggressive player is at the edge of a TAG range and requires a good read to call, which Hero doesn’t have. What is the Hero going to do the two-out- of-three times he misses the flop? What’s he going to do on a wet board like QJ10 or QJ9 with two suited cards?

The flop is now a tough. With a raise on the button by a good player, even with the Hero’s blockers, the Villain has a wide range beating the Hero (AA, KK, AK, A10, 88, A8s) but also some equity with draws (QJ, A8s, KT+, even 89s, 87s). Either bet more or x/c. Betting 70 gives the Villain too much equity. And what is the Hero going to do if the Villain raises?

I check/fold or x/c the turn, it's a wash, I think. Hero is ahead wider with QJ and equity with two suited cards or any J, and a draw to a chop if he has any Q and a J falls on the river. Tanking was really bad, giving the Villain a read for the bluff

Correct my math—I’m not confident I’m doing this right—but AP this is a clear call on the river based on equity values. AQ is a bluff catcher, but the pot is too big. And Villain saw the Hero tank, so a bluff is likely. Am I right that if the Villain bluffing more than a third of the time it's EQ+, and a fold is EQ-?

Hero Villain W/L
Call Wins 66% $(600.00) $(396.00)
Call Bluffing 33% $1,400.00 $462.00
$66.00 Equity
Hero Villain W/L Equity
Fold Bluffing 66% $(1,400.00) $(924.00)
Fold Wins 33% $600.00 $198.00
Equity $(726.00) Equity