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2/5 nut flush draw in position 2/5 nut flush draw in position

03-10-2015 , 09:43 PM
Hero ($800): Late 20s playing TAG. Haven't showed down much but recently showed where I flopped the nut straight in a limped pot and took a bet/bet/bet line.

V ($800): 30s black guy playing TAG solid. Pretty decent it seems, have seen him tank fold AK when he bet/bet/folded to a big ricer bet on an A8335 board when the other guy had quads. He has not cbet some boards and c/f as preflop raiser. Have seen him open 34s for $20 in the HJ when all action was folded to him once.

Hand: 2 limps to V in the HJ and he raises to $25. I am on his left and call with A7. I didn't feel great about this call but knew it was a stationy table preflop and we'd get at least $100 in there. 4 callers total.

Flop ($125): KT8

Checked to V who bets $55. I call, and another guy on his right calls leaving himself $130 behind.

Turn ($290): 5

V bets $150.

Hero?
2/5 nut flush draw in position Quote
03-10-2015 , 10:20 PM
If this is a headsup pot, I think it's a pretty good bluff spot against this villain. With the short stack in though, we may need to hit to win even if we can scare off the villain, so I don't like raising. We're not getting direct odds to draw, but we're pretty close, and I think some combination of overcalls and river bets should get us our price. Call.
2/5 nut flush draw in position Quote
03-10-2015 , 10:24 PM
Based on V description, I think lack of river implied odds against him make this a fold wih someone behind us but the other V's flat is lol and just looks like straight or flush draw more often than a K. Not sure what hands we are getting him to fold on turn other than KQ. Don't think QQ is double barreling here into two others. Unpaired spade rivers I think it's really close between him small-bet/fold and c/f. However if we do call turn, since short stack may call that does give us more dead $ in pot. I think calling is okay here.
2/5 nut flush draw in position Quote
03-10-2015 , 10:37 PM
Tough spot. You're almost getting the proper odds to call assuming V2 puts the rest in. I wouldn't expect much implied odds from V1 since he seems cautious and competent. I lean call.

I'm not a fan of your preflop call. A7s is very marginal against a raise. I'd rather 3bet with A7s than just call. I'd also rather fold than call.
2/5 nut flush draw in position Quote
03-10-2015 , 11:34 PM
On the flop it was 55/(9/47) = 287.22 so your call was +EV a few cents. On the turn his bet is too big to call.

You need to win a pot of 150/(9/46) or 766.67 just to breakeven.

This is all best case assuming Villain doesn't have a set and some of your outs are dead to a boat.

You need a very favorable flop, and very small bets after the flop, if you hope get very lucky and get close to breaking even drawing to a flush.
2/5 nut flush draw in position Quote
03-11-2015 , 12:54 AM
Preflop might be a good spot to 3bet if V opened as he's shown he can open a reasonably wide range and he can fold. With 2 limpers in front, call > fold > 3bet, as we expect his raising range over 2 limpers to be tighter, plus we have the limpers who can coldcall the 3bet, making that less profitable, and the expectation of them calling the raise some % of the time, making our call better. Though if both limpers are short calling becomes a bit worse.

V's sizing in the previous hand where he showed down AK is pretty important here. If you can correlate his betsizing in the two hands then it's pretty likely he has one pair here and it becomes a reasonable spot to bluff with a good image.
2/5 nut flush draw in position Quote

      
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