Midnight game at an east coast Indian casino.

Villain 1 is a young Lebanese American male. VPIP/PFR is about 30/15. In the only hand he played against hero, he raises $25 in EP, two calls, hero calls OTB. Flop Q 8 6. He x/c a $60 bet from hero, others fold. He then then x/f a $100 bet from hero on A turn. $1600.

Villain 2 is a young Asian American male. VPIP/PFR roughly 60/20. No significant hands against hero. I've seen him take some lines that looked bluffy, but no showdowns yet. $660.

Hero is a white guy in his 30s who looks 25 because of good genes. Card dead, so about 15/12 over last 50 hands. Just lost a small 3b pot to a different villain. Young loose player opens UTG, I 3b QQ in UTG+1, folds around and he calls, board came KJ9JA and action went x/x, I call half pot bet on turn, x/x river, I show first, he tables 99 and said he was afraid of KK/AA...so I guess my image is tight. $1800.

On to the hand.

UTG limps, V1 overlimps in MP1, three others limp, hero raises A Q OTB to $25. V2 calls from BB, UTG folds, V1 raises to $90. Folds to hero who calls. V2 calls. $280 in pot.

From his sizing and body language, I feel there's a good chance that V1 is FOS with his limp/reraise. I think he views my hand as light because of my own sizing and thinks he can pick up a pot preflop.

Flop Q 5 9

V2 checks, V1 bets $160, I call, V2 shakes his head, seems like he's going to fold, then cuts out chips and calls. $760 in pot.

Turn Q 5 9 4

Checks around.

River Q 5 9 4 3

V2 shoves for $400 pretty quickly. Body language seems bluffy. V1 thinks for a bit and calls. Hero?

In game, I'm thinking that if V1 has the same read I have on V2, there's a possibility he can call V1's $400 shove with KK or a small flush and then fold when I come over the top (because who comes over the top in this spot without the nuts?)

Assuming I have V2 beat, do I actually have the fold equity against V1 to make a bluff shove +EV, or is this all just a horribly spewy hallucination?

Your image is weak tight if "x/x" means check check. And *possibly* weak borderline OMC if you havent been very active in more than a hour and a half as you mention above.

preflop, as played sizing is probably too small, especially that deep. What was the intent?

-If you were trying to induce a 3!, you need to 4! big.
-If you wanted to play AQo 6 way, then it probably is ok.

Flop - i dont like the flat, but as played it seems ... ok.

Turn - one of the worst cards for your hand.

River - as played, fold. you're lighting money on fire by calling as you have a bluff catcher, and since other V called, no point on torching.

thinking about the hand, this entire situation would have likely played out a lot differently by adjusting your PF raise sizing.

Dude, can you read the post or at least the thread title. In what galaxy do I imply that I am thinking about calling the river?

I obviously did. and now i'm reading your defensive reply.

I see a few potential leaks in the line you took. Since you took the initiative to write the thread here, I assume you wanted to talk about it.

What kind of response were you looking for?

If you did, please point out the sentence in which I consider a "call" on the river.

Hint: It's possible that "call" was never considered an option, and that the entire point of the OP is to ask, "Shove or fold?"

Sounds like you have a chip on your shoulder.

As I mentioned above, your line of questioning has a lot of basis depending on intent with your preflop raise to $25. Are you going to elaborate or did you simply want to discuss the hand post train wreck?

if you are thinking about FPS the river, then checking the turn is criminal.

As played: Your line really doesnt make a ton of sense to raise the river. V2 has a value hand. V1 is heroing with a value hand himself, what do you think he's going to call a raise with that doesnt have you crushed?

This is not necessarily true.

The shove against V1 is not a value raise.

Please correct the flop action. Seems like you mean V2 shook his head then called.

I think its going to be spew.

1) You have not said that you've seen V2 make a bluff like this -- and this is a pretty big bluff into two opponents. I'd give it a 50/50 shot that he has the flush (or 99) and missed a x/r OTT. I understand what you have as a read. I'm not sure its a strong enough read.

2) You have not said that V1 is capable of folding an overpair or TPTK (which you tie). I'd be wary of taking this line unless you have better evidence that V1 actually can lay down his hand.

This is correct. Good catch.

Have not seen him make a *confirmed* bluff, this is true. In relative terms, his bet is not actually that big. He's pushing $400 to win $780, so from his perspective if he gets two folds 33% of the time he breaks even.

Part of my thinking is that when I have the A I should be blocking a lot of his flush draws, thus allowing his range to be comprised of a lot more KJ, J T sort of hands. If he somehow backed into a straight with 76o that kinda sucks.

I haven't seen him make any confirmed big laydowns...but in general I think he's a relatively careful postflop player, and I think my line looks so nutted that a lot of players can lay down KK/AA for $1000 on top in his shoes (is that overly optimistic? Too likely to see a "f**k it" call?). If he thinks about the possibility that I checked back the nuts on the turn to induce V2 to shove his missed draws, I think my hand starts to look an awful lot like A Q from his perspective.

I will say that compounding the two concerns you mention is what makes this spot pretty interesting to me. I need V1 to be bluff shoving AND for V2 to call/fold, and essentially I'm risking $1400 to win $1175 based on these propositions...so I need to be correct 54.4% of the time to break even. When I thought about the compound nature of the play it really started to feel like spew.

I think your reads are spot on, V1 has a value type hand like AQ or KK/AA. The problem is, there is a fair amount of draws that get there by thr river that V1 can have. 67 jumped out at me. If you have hearts, would you sometimes bet small on the turn? If so, he could have a flush and jam hoping someone will look him up lighter because it looks bluffy.

It's a stone cold read, and I can see where in some spots it'll work. However there's a lot of conditional probability working against you. It's a high-variance spot but it's sexy as hell if it comes off. I let it go but I'm a bit of a nit.

Definitely, HU makes your proposed line much better.

Re: V2... Comes down to player tendencies as to whether he bets any nonflush.

One other thing I considered was the meta-game factor. There are a few regs at this table, and there's a decent chance that they chirp to other regs about this play since they tend to remember big pots. Either way I'm going to show down my hand. What kind of value do I put on getting river value bets called a bit more often in the future?

Grunch:

Why so small PF over five limpers? This is likely to go 7 ways bloated if the 3-bet doesn't happen. I go at least $35. AP, call of 3-bet seems fine.

Flop and turn I like.

As for an iso-shove to get V1 out OTR, I'd need better reads. Middle Eastern players tend to love the gamble, so I think FE is minimal until proven otherwise. While I love the idea, I wouldn't try it until I was sure V1 can lay down hands that are "strong" when he realizes they have poor relative strength.

Also, V2 could often have been going for a turn c/r and is now afraid of the river checking through. While he has bluffs in his range, he has flushes too.

He should be betting 67 for sure IMO.

3-way the BB shoving river is more for value. It takes a certain type of sicko to run a big bluff like this into two people. Given V2's stats, it's not out of the realm of possibility.

Wait...are you overcalling? Or showing your hand and folding?

Garrick has a good point re pre.

Otb, you'll have a wider range, and should be opening larger (see Chen, Mathematics of Poker).

Honestly, I don't think the difference between a call or a shove is that huge in this spot.

To me this doesn't look like a bluff from V2 at all. I don't think you're ever, or rarely, ahead of V2. If you shove and V1 calls then you lose for sure, if you shove and he folds you may have just been ahead, and it's not a great idea to try to get him to fold better than TPTK here when even if he folds you're likely losing the pot.

So in my opinion Folding (fine) > Calling (bad) > Shoving (worse).

If you were positive you were ahead of V2 and behind V1 then shoving might be good.

Just want to reiterate a point that seems glazed over... the sizing preflop is way too small. If you went to 40, the likelihood of getting limp reraised as a steal goes down since your image is tight and it reps a much stronger range. I also think a limp reraise as a steal is super uncommon at foxwoods 2/5, and you ended up meta game leveling yourself into calling pre against a range that dominates AQo. Notice how you switched from thinking he was stealing pre because of your sizing to deducing he's on KK/AA by the river?

I think the takeaway here should be raise more pre and fold to the 3bet, there are much better spots.

EDIT: From starting my reply to posting, the point of raising too small pre is no longer "glazed over"

Well I'm shoving, not overcalling.

As far as showdown goes, thought about the idea of fast-rolling...upon seeing the A, there's a non-zero chance that both Vs muck before they realized what happened. I don't think that's unethical.

If I flip up the A first, then three seconds later flip up the Q hoping that they muck upon seeing the A, this feels a bit dirty to me and probably wouldn't work anyway.

But yeah, I plan on showing down the hand.

Tbh, I was taking a note on my phone from the previous hand, looked up quick, thought there had only been one limp, threw out five red chips, then looked to my right and thought, "Oh s**t."

I had made larger raises over multiple limpers earlier, which is all the more reason I read the limp re-raise as FOS.

I don't see what showing and folding accomplishes. If you're perceived as a competent player, it's not a super huge lay down.

If you call, fast roll and get both to fold, all the better (and no, it's not unethical in the slightest). Slow rolling the Ah first to induce folds is pretty scummy and you have to be playing against two naive players to think it'll work.

Given your reads I think calling is okay. If you assign a wider probability to V2 bluffing and V1 can have worse value hands than AQ, you can call profitably.

In this spot, however, I think it's less likely V2 is bluffing the river into two players.

DeathCab, I'm not actually considering a call on the river. The play I'm proposing is to raise $1000 on top (into a dry sidepot) in an effort to get V1 to fold, because I think I often beat V2's hand but not V1's hand.

Again, a big reason I think I can get V1 to fold his hand is because raising $1k into the sidepot should look very very nuttish from his perspective.

as i was eluding in the first post, if this was the case, did the thought of isolating cross your mind with a 4!

you induced a raise, would it not be profitable to maximize on this?

I understand. Given the preflop and flop dynamics, is it possible we are ahead of both? I think it is, as is the possibility we are ahead of V1 but not V2. I think there is a real chance V1 could have KQ/QJ that limped pre and attacked your weak open thinking you were FOS (oh yeah raise bigger pre ).

When V1 LRRs, I put him on a range of hands. Sometimes he does have QQ+ and AK (although I block several of these combos). Other times he has suited connectors. Occasionally he has complete garbage.

Looking at the three options:

1) Fold: Against the range I see, I don't like this option. I'm in position and have a hand with decent equity against his entire range.
2) Flat: Will play a pot with SPR of 9 or 6 (depending on whether another V calls) in position against a range that includes some combos that crush me and some combos that will spew into me.
3) 4b: Let's break it down according to his range possibilities.
- If he's in the bluffing portion of his range, he probably folds to my 4b and I take down a pot that currently has $140 in it.
- If he has AK or QQ+, I'm building pot with an SPR of 2.5 and will probably have to deliver my stack to V1 if the flop comes A high or Q high.

Considering all of that, I think Option 2 is much better than Option 3.