Hero is a pretty typical TAG regular. Maybe a little snugger and a little more aggressive with 3-betting.

Villain is a semi-reg winner who can change gears widely from TAG to LAG. Appears to be playing more snugly today. Came over to the table after playing some PLO. He normally cbets a lot and semi-bluffs. Capable of moves, but seems to be more active preflop than postflop. Not too much post-flop history between us.

Effective stacks: $1100ish

Villain raises EP to $20, folds to Hero on BT who flats with JsTs and BB ($300ish effective new player) comes along.

Flop ($60): Ah Qd 8h
Villain cbets $40, hero flats with a double gutter, BB folds.
Think this is standard given stack depth, position, and relative sneakiness of a 9 hitting.

Turn ($140): 8d
Villain thinks for a bit and checks, hero bets $80, Villain calls.
Thought I could fold out a few of his winners (smaller PPs, KxJx) that he was giving up on and continue to apply pressure on certain rivers if I don't improve.

I will say though that the flop flat and turn sizing probably (along with pre) cap my range.

River ($300): Kd
Villain checks after a brief pause, hero bets $180 with broadway looking to get value from Ax here, villain check-raises to $575 total after a bit of thinking.

$395 for me to call into $1055, so about 2.7:1 here on a call.

I don't think we're ever good here. I'm making a sigh fold and moving on. It's more than possible Villain boated up on the turn or river. Is he ever making this play with a busted flush? I doubt it.

I think this is a clear fold on the river based on your villain description. EP raiser so villain's range is very strong and is a "semi reg," so villain might be positionally aware of relative hand strength.

I don't blame you for betting turn for the reasons mentioned above, but when villain calls you're most likely crushed. Your river bet is turning your hand into a bluff against this villain type, as you have good showdown value, but if you bet you won't get a lot of calls, maybe AQ/AK type hands, and potentially can be bluffed off. River completes a flush which is in villain's calling range, or you just might already have been drawing dead on turn.

Check/raise is puke inducing here, but I think this is actually a bit straight forward. Given the paired board, straight possible and backdoor flush getting there this is a scary board. Nothing you beat is raising for value here, he is either bluffing or beating you. On a board like that bluffing river is unlikely, and your at the absolute bottom of the range that can consider calling. Unless I had some read that villain is bluffing I fold.

It feels of kings full to me, but aces/queens full may have slowed down on turn once their hand is near lock nuts.

Tough spot, but I have to call.

I don't think he has a boat, because he would bet/bet/bet so often (unless he decided to c/c turn with KK exactly - but I don't think he's often c-betting that 3-way on Axx, anyway, and, if he is, he's not c/c with KK on turn), especially against your range on the flop and turn, which includes plenty of hands that give him value on those streets, including Ax and draws.

I think it's very hard for him to have a diamond flush, because I think he's going to bet the turn so often with AdXd and other decent turned diamond draws.

I think a straight is more of a river c/c than a river c/r.

So all his value hands beat you, but I'm very hard pressed to give him credit for many value hands at all.

His turn c/c, however, is certainly indicative that he has "something." It would make no sense for him to c/c oop on the turn with "nothing." And "something" is likely a middle strength hand or a hand with some showdown value that can improve - likely a range of middling strength pairs and pairs + draws.

With that range, I think his c/r range on the river includes a ton of hands with showdown value that he's turning into a bluff to get you off of Ax chops, 8x (which certainly becomes a bluff catcher to a river c/r on this board), and a few other hands, including the straight you actually hold.

So his river bluff range includes Ax hands without board cards that are chops. It also includes hands like QhJh, QhTh - pair + draws that don't bet the turn (nothing better folds, nothing worse calls) but would probably c/c it.

More simply - on the turn he has "something."

On the river, his value hands all beat you, and you beat all his bluffs.

His ratio of value hands to bluffs should make a call plenty profitable.

I mean, you need to think about how thin a check/raise value range is going to be on this river, and how it's even thinner for villain because of his line and action.

For example, no - he doesn't have KK. KK will almost never take a line of c-bet Axx flop 3-way, c/c paired board on the turn. How would that make any sense? Maybe you could give him a 1 combo of 3 KK combos possible. But look, just because it's "possible" to have 3 KK combos on the river doesn't make it likely - it's very inconsistent with flop and turn.

With AA and even moreso with QQ (when he holds QQ, our range of course includes more Ax that could pay him off), why would he c/c the turn? This deep, he needs to bet/never fold or check/raise small to build a pot. Having the turn check through would be disaster, and our range is draw heavy and Ax heavy. So c/c turn makes little sense with these hands.

And why would he c/c the turn with AdXd - a hand that can get value and build a pot - or a turned unpaired diamond draw - a hand that picked up some equity but plays poorly oop and is often more profitable as a second barrel against our relatively weak range?

When we consider his range, we should realize his value range is almost non-existent, but he should have plenty of middling strength hands can't c/c us because they rarely beat our river bet, but that can make plenty of live villains fold on what appears to be a very scary board with a river check/raise.

Just how good is he? You're kind of near the top of your perceived range here.

It's hard for me to say honestly how good he is given that he's only a semi-reg and we are rarely at the same table very often (larger room and possibly different schedules) when he's around.

I don't think that I mentioned it in the OP, but I surely also have to bet river here and give a guy like this a chance to call down my busted flopped flush draws. That surely mitigates how often he'll turn some hands into a bluff, no? Although most of my likely FDs are also combo draws, so maybe he'd expect me to raise the flop with those a bunch.

fold

The only thing you beat is like AJx turned into a bluff.

Looks like value though.

Hmm doubt a semi-reg would come up with a clever c/r bluff line here but he is repping a pretty narrow range and there are some hands you beat like QJhh-QThh, KJhh if he decided to c/c that, Ax turned into a bluff, ect. He only has to have like 4 combos of bluffs for a call to be profitable. If he is bluffing I'd say it's with a hand like KJhh/KThh/QJhh/QThh rather than an Ax hand since that has showdown value and he's a semi reg.

He might check/call the turn with AA,QQ because he has the near nuts and if he perceives the hero as aggressive, knows the hero will bet turn with semi bluffs and river when flush/straight hits. Some history here would be great (how hard does villain bet the nuts). So I don't think we can rule that out entirely...

I don't think you're beating anything in his value range here and if he is willing to bluff the river in this spot, what hands are in your range that he's trying to get to fold? I doubt you're barreling Ax on that river. 8x, straights, flushes are betting that river and i'm not sure i would count on you to fold those...

Villains line is pretty consistent for a flopped set on a wet board.

Bets Flop for value and to charge draws.

Fills up on the Turn and slows down, giving Hero a chance to own himself or make the draw.

Check Raises River for Value.

In spots like this I always think of the old line "Never chase flush/straight draws on a paired board".

I agree 100% with the above.

I'm checking turn most of the time. As played I think it's a fold, it sucks but I don't think we are good here.

this is a pretty cool hand, and i think riv is pretty close.

i'd check turn most of the time too.

if hes really good, id probably call. otherwise i think its probably a fold, although if you don't bet Axdd ott, youre folding close to 100% here. i think his timing on the turn and river are significant, and i would expect him to take more time if he was deciding to check AdXx hands with the plan to turn them into a bluff if you bet river. i would also expect him to barrel turn with a lot of his heart draws, so its hard to see what hands he'd be bluffing here with.

all of that being said, curiosity might get the best of me in game

Considering the board, just check here. You still drag a decent pot if straight is good and don't have to question whether or not he boated up if you have to fold.

Obviously gross spot. It's difficult to see his c/r as either a stone bluff or some ******ed "value" play with AK.

I'd probably puke fold.

I like hero's line.

Pretty easy b/f on the river. I make it $200 though.

I don't think thus is a very tough decision if we just admit that villain is unlikely to be bluffing otr.

Thanks all. Thought it was a quasi interesting spot and wasn't sure what opinions here would be.

If he's a true sicko I'm never folding

How many of these have you met/played with at MD Live?

Trivial fold IMO

Right, dude has to be a grade A sicko for me to call. Agree its an easy fold against vast majority

Unlike some others I don't mind the bet on the turn. Also, it's real hard not to be influenced in evaluating the hand based on what happened.

Here's what I'd ask myself in your shoes.

On the turn my plan was to bet the river and have him fold a bunch of hands. Now on the river I'm thinking I can value bet and get called by those hands. Is my plan consistent?

Long story short this might be one of those hands where it's more correct to bet when you don't have it, than when you do. But like I said, it's very hard not to be influenced by what happened.

Maybe checking back the river is the right thing to do.

If he's a great player (or if this were an online game) I'd def consider calling

With all the known variables here it seems like a fold