Game is late night last night around 2:30am. 'Happy' (UTG) is a recent table transfer so no reads on him but he looks like a mid-20's happy Indian rec/semi-reg player. Glove Don't Fit (CO) is a fit-or-fold and uncreative type that doesn't really scare me.

OTTH,

Effective stacks: $1000

Happy limps UTG
Glove Don't Fit limps in the CO
Hero raises QQ to $30 OTB
Blinds fold
Happy calls $30
Glove Don't Fit calls $30

Pot: $90

Flop: 8 5 3

Happy checks
Glove Don't Fit checks
Hero bets $60
Happy calls $60 after 10-15 seconds
Glove Don't Fit folds

Ranging him on PP's between JJ-66, flush draws and maybe a 76 OESD

Pot: $210

Turn: T

Happy checks
Hero thinks for 10-15 seconds and bets bets $140
Happy thinks for 30 seconds and calls

Ranging him on JJ and mostly flush draws at this point. Maybe FD + pair

Pot: $490

River: 9

Happy tank/checks
Hero?

The tank check felt like he was either contemplating a blocking bet with a showdown value hand, or had a strong made hand that was contemplating leading out but thought Hero would bet it for him. 76 is the only draw that really gets there. Absent reads, are we better off just taking the cheap showdown, or can you guys get behind a small value bet/fold of $100-$150? We open ourselves up to getting bluff raised, but that probably happens so infrequently at 2/5 that it's not really a consideration.

* as an aside, as you move up in limits and river bluff raising comes into play, does that mean you can't make these small value bets on the river as often because you open yourself up to being bluffed off the best hand?

Easy value bet on river. I wouldn't even call it a thin value bet because this is actually a semi-fat value bet spot.

I like it.

67ss or 9Tss are the likely better hands we value own ourselves against obv vs an unknown anything is possible but JJ lots of Tx in his range. Assuming we have no read that he bluff raises rivers it's a pretty standard b/f for value. I'd probably go $200ish.

My first thought was that a bet/bet/bet line would be overplaying our hand as we are often taught, perhaps erroneously, that strong one pair hands are best played for two streets of value as three streets is overplaying your hand. I think one of Miller's books says to target players that take bet/bet/bet lines with top pair as they often overvalue top pair and will stack off light. I guess that doesn't necessarily apply if we are advocating bet/folding the river but the thought of bet/folding having put in 85 BB's (if we bet $200 on river) gives me the jeebies.

Anyway, is there any way to short hand guestimate an unknown's likely continuing range by the time he gets to the river? Part of me loves your idea for a $200 river bet on a T high board because any JJ or T or perhaps even a 9 will look us up putting us on AK, but the other part of me thinks maybe his range was too draw heavy or weak pair-y that won't call a bet and the only thing we get looked up by is two pair+.

Do his turn and river timing tells affect your decision making at all? Does the fact that it looks like he almost made a blocking bet sway your decision to value bet the river? (could misinterpret an almost blocking bet for an almost fat value bet)

ya, limps JJ - sounds about right..


He probably has a flush draw - I doubt you will get any value from this guy. Maybe 78 - which will fold too.

There is very few hands you will get value from if you bet this river.

If he limps JJ in the past than maybe.

I would probably check - I don't think he calls anything that isn't beating you already. It's very hard to get 3 streets of value with 1 pair.

And nothing wrong with showing your hand here. It will actually make your image look good.

Why do we think there's a lot of Tx hands in Villain's range? The T came on the turn and he called a flop bet. Top pair on the flop was 8x and now there are 2 overcards to that card. That's a problem if he's playing the strength of his own hand; his hand is now either 2 pair (if he had T8 or 98), or a straight (76), or it's third pair or worse, unless he happens to have started with spades and turned one pair but not two pair or a straight (like QsJs).

Unless we think he gets sticky with 8x here, I'm checking.

As for your aside, it is definitely true that the more we think a bluff-raise (that we will not call) is possible, the less we should want to bet/fold. Of course that also means that against certain players it then becomes OK to bet/call the river if we think they bluff too much.

I might have MUBS, but his line and actions leap out to me as QJss. He backdoors into a different draw so he considers leading out, but then he realizes his obvious draw missed so a c/r might get paid off.

What exactly are we trying to get value from OTR? AT/A9ss? 87? I dunno, without reads that he is a station, this feels like a check back to me.

We need to bet to target a weak range, as weak as 8x. There are some Tx of spades that paired the turn as well. We may own ourselves by a rivered straight or two pair, but I'm b/f $200 confidently.

But we have no reads to believe that V will call a 3rd barrel with Txss or worse. Even to your typical LLSNL fish, a raise PF followed by b/b/b on a runout like this screams overpair.

I actually have no problem believing that V will call a river bet with Txss. The problem is I don't think this is a big enough part of his range compared to what beats us.

I think this a spot that separates the people who are winners from the people who crush the games. Betting 3 streets here will add variance to your game since the thinner you bet, the more often you are going to be wrong. But IMO V's calling range that you beat is well over the 50% threshold that you don't beat. I don't quite think its as fat as ATsai, but I def agree with him that its a bet.

We have no reads to go on other than looks (and since we can't see him on the interwebs), i'll give you a range of hands that i've seen randos show up with in 2/5 games after betting 3 streets and getting to showdown on runouts like this. (It took me a lot of failed triple barrels to learn when not to do it)

8s53sT9

22-JJ, 3x, 5x, 8x, 79, JT-AT, 9xss, Txss, AK. Hands that we don't beat, sets, 2 pairs, straights KK, AA. We can reduce combos of some of the ****** hands that get there with this line like ATo, 22, 52s, A3, etc. but we can also reduce combos of hands like flopped sets, AA, and rivered straights because villains is unlikely to show up with those as played. It's really hard to make a pair in holdem, let alone better than a pair.

People don't come to the casino to fold. Especially not if you have the appearance of an agro guy. You have AK. Or you missed your flush. They will call with a pair. And if you get check/raised, it's a snap fold because maybe 1% of 2/5 players xr bluff rivers. How often do you see river check/raises at all regardless of whether its a bluff or a value raise? (unless its some old dude who called 2 streets with a flush draw and hit it on the river and checked expecting you to bet which is a pretty standard thing for them to do)

If he has 67 or 89 this time, **** it, i'd do it again next time. 175/fold.

Heres the thing though... it doesn't! because most of your typical rec players who play once a week or twice a month see everyone check back there with 1 pair. Rec players and regs don't like betting 3 streets with 1 pair and it seems as if that's commonly known. It's kind of like taking someone to value town on a bet/check/bet line. Recs and regs see that line as being a bad bluff almost all the time. So it's a great line to take for value in the right spots.

IMO this is a perfect spot to go for a huge value bet since the flush draw missed, and he can't c/shove as a bluff over a large bet. I would probably go $365.

I would go for light value.

something like 165.

and would snap off all shoves, so it would suck if he had 59

The tank check OTR from V seems to be weighing much heavier on me than it does others ITT. If V had a hand worth calling OTR, why would he take time to check? Since we can't assume V is sophisticated enough for a reverse tell, this means the V either considered bluffing his missed draw (which means he isnt calling a river bet), or he considered leading out (which means he can beat an overpair and is going for a c/r).

If he had a middling value hand that might call a river bet, he wouldn't tank check, IMO.

It also looks like we could have missed OUR flush draw, so I like a Bet/fold of 160ish

grunch. bet $100 to $200 or the max he calls with 8x. 76 89 99 J7ss QJss got there nd u lose to scared two paur but u have best hand often.
this isnt that thin

I ended up checking back the river. V said "ten" and MHIG. I've been looking for opportunities to overbet the river for fat value, usually when it looks like you have a whiffed AK and can get called down light. I usually like to have at least two pair or better when attempting it however.

I know this is being results oriented, but wj94's overbet suggestion has me thinking "how much bigger can we go?"

River pot is $490 with $770 remaining in effective stacks. I wonder how often we can get looked up by AT or KT shoving? It looks pretty FOS, like missed AK or a missed flush draw. That would be such a baller move. Maybe next time.

I don't think overbetting river (shoving in this case) gets called by a one-pair hand hardly ever without any history, but betting something close to pot size gets called a lot more often since the draws missed. $350-440 seems like a good sweet spot, he might have folded anyway though.

Don't be too results-oriented here. I do think this particular time is one where you could have gotten value and missed it, but I think that when you consider Villain's overall range, Tx is a small enough part of it that a bet here is quite thin. How many combos of Tx does he really get here with? It almost has to be Tx. And T9ss is two pair. There are not that many reasonable combos of Tx that you beat compared to hands in his range that beat you (QJss, T9ss, any 89s, any 87s, is already more combos than Txss where x>7). Like I said before, unless one pair hands worse than Tx--such as 8x--are going to call us here, it's probably too thin.

The way the board ran out, I do not think this is fat value and I don't fully understand why other people are suggesting it is.

This

This is live 2/5 NL. Villain will likely make a bad hero call with 8x sometimes even though 8x is no longer TP...especially if we size the river bet correctly.

Why is that?

Well, a lot of live 2/5 NL players will be tempted to put us on some probability of having a whiffed AK. Not only that, they don't see many other live 2/5 NL players value betting thinly with 1 pair on the river when straights/2pairs may have completed. In other words, they are going to think that our river bet is POLARIZED to nuts or air (whiffed AK/etc) because they rarely see other players in the 2/5 player pool value bet one pair thinly on river. Because they will be thinking that our river bet is POLARIZED, you will get hero called sometimes/often by one pair hands weaker than Tx.

Some of you guys (like CallMeVernon) are way too pessimistic about the chances that we will be value-betting into a better hand on the river.

Remember that Villain was first to act on the river, and he chose to check. Usually, a Villain who has rivered a nut hand like a straight will lead the river into us. While Villain could be playing cagey by checking a rivered straight/2pair/set to us, I would heavily discount his having those hands by the fact that he chose to check.

Therefore, this is a semi-fat value bet spot and not a thin value bet. We will sometimes/often get called by one pair hands (whether they be JJ, Txss, 97s, 9xss, 8x, etc) because it is lol live 2/5 NL. And we don't have to worry too much about QJss/76s/99/T9ss because Villain would have often bet those hands himself instead of checking river to us.

As a sidenote, the fact that so many respectable LLSNL posters are calling this either a very thin value bet or a clear check back...is big evidence of how live poker is still alive and well.

This is a clear semi-fat value bet spot, and people who don't take it are leaving massive amounts of EV on the table on a regular basis because they are likely missing many other easy value bets too.