This spot is one of those ones that just felt like any decision was slightly wrong, so just wanted to see what people would do.

SB ($350ish): Standard loose passive fish. Fairly stuck and cally.
BB ($3k+): Quasi regular player who is on a heater today. Fairly non-nondescript and a little on the sticky side postflop.
MP ($650ish): Stuck quite a lot and does a lot of limping preflop. Will limpRR or 3bet pre with bigger hands. Can get very aggro postflop if weakness is shown. Otherwise just call happy.
HJ ($250ish): New player to the game who bought short.
Hero ($1700ish): Been playing very tight today given the table conditions. Basically folding and showing the nuts.

Preflop: MP limps, HJ limps, Hero raises to $30 in CO with AT, SB calls, BB calls, MP calls, HJ calls.

Flop ($180): 963

Checks to hero who opts to check it back. If I thought there was any folding equity, I would have fired multiple shells with NFD and overs. My equity is such that even if they never fold, it still may be worth doing, but I went ahead and checked.



Turn ($180): 2
SB checks, BB checks, MP leads for $125, HJ shoves for $230 which does not reopen the betting for MP should action not change.

Hero chooses to....

Raise to $450

A call gives MP great odds to river a paired board if he has sets or two pair hands and he probably won't give you more action with a worse hand if the board pairs. I would just make it 650 or so and hope someone gives you action. Flatting looks really strong anyway, may as well raise.

+1 for the photo. Best use of Dos Equis guy I've seen in a while.

This sounds super fishy but I'd ask the dealer if I flat the raise if it reopens the betting (even though I know the answer) and then flat the bet. I feel like I can get away with this because I hardly ever look like a regular and I think it makes it look like I have a naked FD or PP with a .

Bad acting aside, I think I flat because it makes it easier to get other players involved who can still raise now or make 2nd best hands OTR. If I had a shorter stack I'd probably shove but since the guy who opened the betting this street can easily get it in OTR, I'm more concerned with what will lure other players to the pot.

Flatting is really dangerous when we are 300+ bbs deep with the BB

Flatting also sucks when a diamond falls on the river.

To OP, when BB checks twice, what range are you putting him on?

Prelfop: I would put a lot of big cards in BBs hands, along with pairs, suited connectors/gappers, suited aces, and maybe even some connected middling cards. Probably plays wider than one really should in these games, but not any two crazy. It seems fairly safe to eliminate QQ+ here and AK.

Flop: We haven't played enough together for me to know if BB would lead a set in this spot on the flop. That would be the most helpful piece of information obviously. Two pairs are unlikely given the board, even for this person.

My *guess* is that BB would lead sets on a flop like this at least some of the time (and possibly more), but I don't have any definite evidence to support that.

Turn: It seems unlikely BB has a flush here, because given I hold the nut flush card, BB is going to want value. If anything, BB tends to overvalue hands from my experience and is not shy about trying to extract.

If you flat, the MP calls since he's getting 6:1 odds. Even if a diamond comes, the pot is so big that it will be unusual for him to fold.

That said, you have a ton of equity on the flop with the nut FD and two overs. You should have bet there. Nobody is putting you on the flush on the turn, which means you're getting a big payday.

Imo is fair to say that BB is on the weaker portion of his range, and he's not checking twice with a hand of value. Since he's likley to fold, i don't mind raising here and getting MP's money in now and prevent our action from being killed with a fourth diamond. The likley hood of MP folding is slim to none especially given the fact that he's tilting/stuck.

I flat and try to get more money in the pot, SB / BB are going to fold most likely anyway. Just get MP to put the 230 in there, and stack off on the river imo. He'd have committed half his stack by the river anyway, and if he's stuck and leading the turn into all these players he likes his hand. Just hope the board doesn't pair and it looks like you'll get all of his money.

Grunch

If deeper raise, I probably call tho and hope for good rivers. Raising never really bad tho.