I've been thinking more about this hand and was speaking with a 2/5 pro at my local card room about it who gave me some food for thought.

I've been running well below EV this year, but in the back of my mind I kind of know that is not the whole story. The transition from rec player to full-time pro has been infinitely more challenging then I could have ever imagined and I'm only still beginning to peel back the layers of why that may be. Some leaks I did not previously have with a full-time job have likely crept in as I solely rely on poker income now.

What he asked me was: "How would you play a set in this spot?" If we had a set (and we certainly have all 9 combos on this flop), we would be betting the turn anywhere from $150-225. If I am going to take the line I did on the flop (which I believe is the correct line) then I need to continue telling the story on the turn. We want to continue getting value from his draw range while putting max pressure on his overpair range. If he has ~10 combos of AX then he has at least 18 combos of 99-JJ and possibly more if he doesn't 3! QQ-KK. While our turn bet has RIO vs. AX, we still have ~10 outs against those hands that don't complete the flush and can still get value from non-Ace draws and fold out many of his one pair hands.

What he told me and what I may need to truly take to heart was: don't play 2/5 until you feel comfortable playing your old aggressive style (that you currently employ at 1/2 and 1/3). It may be a tough love lesson, but I think I can finally admit now that I have a new leak at 2/5 that I didn't previously have, and that is I'm not yet comfortable with the BB/$ as a full-time pro.

I used to play with such a carefree naive aggressive 'ignorance is bliss' style when I had a fat direct deposit coming in every two weeks, but now I am definitely gun shy at spots in 2/5 where I cannot afford to be if I want to be playing it full-time.

So I think my conclusion from this hand is I am still not ready to be playing 2/5 as a full-time pro and will continue grinding the BR higher at 1/2 and 1/3. Possibly the most influential "aha" moment of my poker career thus far.

I know what you're saying and every player goes thru that when they move up. However, let me throw this out there. I have no idea if you are guilty of this or not, but lots of pros think that they can be on their phones or tablets and play well. They think that they need the mental break between hands so they dont burn out from concentrating at all times for hours on end.

But a hand like this is the perfect example of how much of a difference paying attention at all times can make such a big difference. You made the statement that

We want to continue getting value from his draw range while putting max pressure on his overpair range

That's true but what much more important is being able to determine which of those he has. If its 50/50 whether he has a draw or an overpair, you are in a quandary. If you have watched his every move and can now say its 75% he has a draw and 25% an overpair or vice versa, you can make a better decision whether to check or bet and how much to bet. Also, if you have narrowed him down to an overpair because youve seen him play draws differently, you should have a better idea if you can make him fold an overpair. We all know some people wont fold an overpair no matter how much pressure you put on them.

Im sure you know all of that already. Just reiterating that narrowing the hand range as much as humanly possible makes a huge difference compared to just trying to balance attacking both ends of his range.

You're never getting him to fold better on the flop.

Also I misread the hand, I thought V was the one who raised pre so my response is wrong in some spots.

Forgot to post the results if anyone was interested


Not sure if he would have folded or not on the turn, but in retrospect I believe betting $175-200 on the turn and checking back river is the best play vs. his entire range.

None of us know if he wouldve folded the turn to a healthly bet. Maybe it would work. Maybe it wouldnt, but I dont understand why you called the river after checking the turn. Thats a bad call.

Because I was bluff catching. I thought his bet was polarized to AX and other naked clubs that missed based on his 1/3 PSB flop donk and call of my raise. He threw a curveball and showed up with a very unexpected hand. It happens, that's poker.

OK, but it doesnt look like a bluff at all really. He bet $90 into a $220 pot. I'll repeat what I said when you posted the river action

I agree that I would fold unless I had seen him bluff missed draws at least once or twice. This looks like a value bet and you cant beat anything that he would value bet. Even if its a stupid value bet from something like 98

You think he has a draw? If I have a draw and the Villain checks I'm usually reasonably happy to take a free card, and not risk getting check-raised. Look at your own thought process on the turn, you were happy to take a free card rather than bluff. Even if Villain does have a draw like JcTc, then he's ahead of in equity.

In some sense the Villain played his hand super straightforward.

He bet the the flop to protect his hand. He checked the turn, with kings when the ace hit. All of a sudden his hand is too weak to value bet. He didn't choose to bluff the "logical" ace bluff card.

Then he blocking bet the river, or there's some slight chance he knew by your turn check that you didn't have an ace, and bet for value. I'm guessing he would've checked the river if he was in position.