Quote:
Originally Posted by johnnyBuz
That's the whole crux of the argument. Is calling when pot odds > odds to hit superior to semi-bluff betting and risking having to bet/fold without realizing your equity?
I'm not sure if you can even do an EV calculation or not (Vernon?) but this specific hand is more or less just to provide an example of a fairly common situation where I can't figure out what is higher EV. Calling is clearly +EV but raising may be higher +EV. Probably villain dependent at the end of the day.
LOL, I was thinking about posting in this thread anyway...
The answer to your question can't be determined just by your pot odds, and in theory there's a calculation you could do, but in practice there are too many things you have to guess at to make it really ironclad. You need to know things like:
1. Fold equity: how often will I take the pot down with a raise? If you could win X% of the time by calling, but even more by raising, the extra money you risk by raising could easily make raising worthwhile.
2. Implied odds: how much will I get paid if I call and hit my hand? If a raise wins you the current pot Y% of the time, but you can stack someone on the river if you hit which happens X%, it may sometimes be worth passing on the current pot for a chance at the river bets, depending on how much they are.
3. A big one in this particular case, reverse implied odds: if I call and hit my hand, how often will I
lose? The board is paired, and with 2 Broadway cards. You could be drawing dead. If you call, only to hit and go broke on the river when you're still behind, you'll wish you hadn't called.
In this particular case, our implied odds are severely hurt by our reverse implied odds. That tiny bet looks like either a weak hand that won't call much if we improve on the river, or a sucker bet with a hand that has you drawing dead. I really think you have virtually no implied odds in this spot. If someone has a strong hand, and you improve, you could be paying them off just as easily as vice versa.
As they discuss in NLHT&P--and some people on this forum find counterintuitive--this actually makes
raising the turn more attractive, relative to calling. You're hoping everyone is weak and the hand ends now with you dragging the turn pot, because your implied odds if you call are so shaky. And if you get 3bet and blown off your draw, well, the board was paired so that's honestly probably fine. A 3bet means your draw isn't nearly as strong as it looks anyway.
EDIT: I see I was beaten to this point 2 posts up.