Quote:
Originally Posted by johnnyBuz
Were you happy with your decision after the fact? Did you feel your read was validated but the second villain just didn't cooperate? That brings up a good point, because even if you can correctly assign a range to V, there's no way you can say with certainty if he will do what you need him to do, ie. recognize he is "beat" even when he's not, and fold.
I discussed that play with several players who's game I like and who knew the villains. The more ambitious one loved the play. That one hand stayed with me because it really helped me get perspective n how higher variance plays fit in my overall game.
In that case I needed at least one villain to fold. Either the FD guy or the flat caller. If they both cal I'm drawing dead to 2 outs or running miracles. I over estimated my FE. It almost worked cuz the top TP guy tanked over 5 minutes and I'm sure he would have folded TPTK there. But as mentioned people sometimes have a weird self evaluation of their own relative hand strength. We can read them based on their action as weak or strong but sometimes their own assessment is so far off that our spot on read of how they size up their hand is not useful. This tends to happen in very large pots when they have non nut hands. Top two becomes a bluff catcher to a guy and I read him as weak. The opposite is a guy who overvalued his hand and we read him as strong.
I think the willingness or heart to make plays like this are part of what makes a beast of a player but it needs to be tempered with good judgement.
FWIW I've read Blink and generally do feel thin slicing takes place at the poker table if we allow it. Doyle Brunson covered this in Super System. Most people think it's hoakey because he used the 70's term "ESP" but this is what I believe he was talking about.
Tom Dwan gets Eastgate to lay down trips in that HSP hand with Greensteins AA. But he also is in tons of spots where he barrels flop and turn and gives up OTR. His adventurism is tempered with solid judgement.
I think really good players do think "yeah I missed my draw" or "my pair is probably no good now" "but I'm gonna get this ****er off his hand because much of his range is weak here". The best players IMO have the same "sense" in their follow up thought process that says "yeah maybe but not in this spot".