This is a long post so bear with me. The more experience I get at 2/5 the more I am realizing it is a potential gold mine in ways that 1/2 could never be. I read a post awhile ago in
this thread on the differences between 1/2 and 2/5 and this really stuck out to me (I read this long before even taking a shot at 2/5):
Quote:
Originally Posted by miajag
Basically in my experience 2/5 is more loose-aggressive and 1/2 is more loose-passive. In other words people at 2/5 are less likely to call bets with weak draws, etc., but they're more likely to 3-bet light or donk-bluff all in with air. The players at 2/5 might be a little better overall but I think it's more accurate to say they're just bad in different ways than 1/2 players. Adjust accordingly.
Quote:
Originally Posted by bsball8806
At 1/2, people are unpredictably bad
At 2/5, people are predictably bad
take your pick
I didn't know what he meant at the time, but it is starting to become more clear to me. In my roughly 30 hours of experience at 2/5 I have picked up on the fact that most tables are very loose and somewhat aggresive preflop with most of the table willing to VPIP $30 in with horrible RIO hands while OOP. With effective stacks averaging 200 BB's it seems everyone thinks
"Eh, I've got plenty of implied odds to make a loose call" which causes the rest of the table to call.
Segue to the next step, there is a lot more 3! and squeezing at 2/5, which is natural and makes sense to me. What doesn't make sense to me is the manner in which people choose to squeeze. Why I think 2/5 will yield a higher win-rate for me than 1/2 is due to a) deeper stacks and b) people employing aggressive tactics that are good in theory but executed at inopportune times and c) people playing poorly in 3! pots (combination of A and B) either folding too easily or continuing with a dominated range.
Figuring out the minimum range required to profitably 4! here will yield enormous returns to my win rate (I think? - unless I am not thinking about this the right way).
OTTH,
Effective stacks of $1000. Table is playing 7 handed right now.
V1 is in the BB. Looks to be mid-20's and has a bit of a gamble in him. I've observed him 3! a handful of times and call 3! a handful of times (no showdowns). My read on him is more qualitative in nature but my read is that he uses aggression to mask his weaker range but that he likely 3! and calls 3! with hands that are too weak to profitably do so.
An hour earlier I opened KK to $25 UTG, MP called, V re-raised to $100 from the SB, hero 4! to $325 and V tank-folded claiming he had AKs. I don't know if I believe him, but my image was very snug at the time.
V2 is UTG and was the primary target for the hand. He's been felted once, has a VPIP around 50% and has been observed open raising and 3! preflop with hands as bad as 53s, 75o, etc. hitting some miracle two pairs and generally being an unpredictable wild card.
Hero is UTG+1 and has been playing very tight. I had my stack around $1300 a few hours earlier but a combination of being card dead most of the night and making some tough laydowns via bet/folding has probably caused my image to lose some of its luster.
The Action
V2 straddles to $10 UTG
Hero raises to $35 with K
9
My primary intention was to isolate V2, with consideration given to V1 potentially calling OOP with a weaker hand and check/folding to my c-bet on good flops. Winning the $17 uncontested would also be a nice outcome.
MP calls $35
HJ calls $35
BTN calls $35
V1 raises to $180 from the SB
Hero's options:- Fold
- 4!/Fold to $500
- 4!/Call a Shove
The sizing of V1's "squeeze" seemed a little weak to me. With $150 already in the pot, he is only making it $150 more, offering me 2.3:1 odds. He will also be OOP and if I call there is a good chance at least one more player calls. Villain looks somewhat uncomfortable like he much prefers a fold but Hero is having a hard time mustering the courage to 4! here.
Further, V should know my range is pretty snug, especially UTG. We already had a similar hand where he ended up folding AKs to my 4!, so I think my 4! would carry a lot of pull here.
So the question is how should I be thinking about this situation? If I think there is at least a 50% chance that V is squeezing light here and will fold to a 4!, what is the minimum range I would need to make this 4!?
This is what I mean about villains making poor decisions regarding dead money. V is likely thinking on Level 1 here
"Wow, there is 30 BB's of dead money out there. If I just put out a nice sized raise, I'll probably take this pot down!"
But he should consider Level 2,
"Okay so the original raiser is UTG, hasn't played many hands tonight and has only shown down winners thus far. My hand is probably too weak to call, so I should either raise or fold, but I need a really strong hand to raise UTG's likely strong open."
If I do 4! here and V only calls (horrible), I should expect to see an Ace or King on the flop ~40% of the time (I think) and can shove when checked to. If he check/folds in those situations, I should be winning 50% of the time preflop and 20% uncontested (0.5 * 0.4) on A or K flops. This is where I am kind of losing my focus and what I should be thinking about.
Also, one final point. If V does shove over my 4!, there would be ~$1610 in the pot with hero getting 3.2:1 odds on a call. I think I would need ~24% equity to make that call profitable. Equilab says K9s has 26.4% equity vs. a range of TT+ which should make calling the 5! +EV correct?
I thought my hand was just a little too weak here. I think if I had K
T
I would have ended up making the 4! re-squeeze. Giving V a little wider range of 88+ and giving Hero KTs yields equity of 33.9% so it seems like this really comes down to how wide is V's squeeze range which should allow us to determine our minimum range. I think it may be KTs but I'm not sure.
If you made it this far, thanks for reading! This hand piqued my interest so bad I had to write it out at 6am as soon as I got home.
Last edited by johnnyBuz; 07-26-2015 at 06:14 AM.