Open Side Menu Go to the Top
Register
2/5 NL Phantom Pot Odds 2/5 NL Phantom Pot Odds

08-02-2013 , 10:47 PM
While I would prefer to look at this hand in a vacuum, will give some dynamics about this particular table because everyone likes dynamics. But I am really looking for analysis is a vaccuum here.

Background: Everyone at the table is terrible.
Main Villains:

UTG+1 (Player A) Tightish PF, station post. Easy to range and easy to read. calls most hands, raises with premiums. $500

CO (Player B): Complete station, calls any pair and any draw. Raises only with monsters, and will over bet. Will call any 2 cards PF for any amount of money. $900 stack (was well over $2k at one point)

Me (straddle): Have had some bad beats at table. Probably seem aggro pf/flop, and weak tight after. (a function primarily of the cards I have been dealt). $700


I post $10 straddle UTG. UTG+1 Raises to 30 (hand shaking...he big). 5 callers. i have 7 3. Getting about 10:1, I call. (mistake?) I tell myself if the flush hits, I am prepared to go broke with it.

Flop: K J: 4

Everybody checks.

Turn: 9

I lead out $115. UTG+1 minraises to 230. All fold to CO, who calls after deliberation. I fold (so much for preflop game plan).

Will post rest of hand after discussion.

---

My main questions are: Is PF a 100% fold, and is there a clearly better way to play this hand on flop/turn once I am in the hand?

When I initially led turn I did so because a) I thought I was likely ahead and b) I thought my hand was vulnerable. Given the action after I led out and the relatively short stacks, I think a fold is correct.

If that line of reasoning is correct (and I'm not saying that is), then is my leading bet then essentially a bluff? If there was just the one minraise and no callers am I obligated to shove? If 2 players flatted do I check fold all rivers? Do I check call if player A bets and Player B folds? Should I ever shove turn (I considered this briefly but did not feel my stack was deep enough to get even a mid-sized flush to fold, or a set. If called by just a single player, do I fire all blank rivers, or check call/check fold all rivers?

Spoiler:
(aside: I did feel that if I could somehow get this heads up, I could shove all non spade/non paired rivers and get value from a set, and check fold if board pairs, so I did not see value in trying to drive out a set or even to get a set to call on turn...maybe this too is flawed. With CO calling the minraise tho I think the shove here is awful considering stack sizes. This all of course stems from my PF call. Given the fact that I pretty much hit my hand as hard as I could and still felt I had to fold, were those odds never anything more than a myth?)

Last edited by King Fish; 08-02-2013 at 11:05 PM. Reason: Fixed some of many typos
2/5 NL Phantom Pot Odds Quote
08-02-2013 , 10:57 PM
My problem is you made a plan to go broke with the flush, then folded the flush. I'm not saying you aren't beat, but ...

Yeah, I'd fold that pre and stop straddling.
2/5 NL Phantom Pot Odds Quote
08-02-2013 , 11:14 PM
Fold pre ainec.......as played shove.....you say he's a station post flop yet you give him a flush only range. I don't love the spot but he can def be raising here with worse for a lot of terrible reasons ..... Add to this the fact that really if he's got us beat its AQss or A10ss Q10ss all of which would be bet/getting it in OTF. Sometimes I'm sure bad players will check the flop but that's really irrelevant now. You called the raise with 37ss made your hand now go with it....... U made your bed, lie in it
2/5 NL Phantom Pot Odds Quote
08-03-2013 , 12:05 AM
The thing that strikes me is your comment that UTG + 1 had his hand shaking when he made the pf raise. I doubt that happens to him when he has ATs or QTs...possibly with AQs, but why no cbet on a royal gutshot flop?

I wonder if he ever takes this line with KK or AsAx. It seems a little more plausible for the hand to be shaking with those hands, and there are certainly bad players who check on the flop hoping to k/r despite their pf lead and then ignore the flush that came in on the turn with 5 players in, thinking he has his set or overpair + flush draw and will get there on the river anyway. This line doesn't match up well to your description of him being a station postflop who only raises with premiums, since those hands aren't exactly a lock on the turn, but maybe he's gone crazy with AA/KK.

I think CO may hold a naked As, although this too could be dangerous. His pause could be him sitting there with the nuts thinking, "OK, if the board doesn't pair, I can stack off," esp since he's in position. I know a lot of players love to do that in position in live games.

As far as the pf call goes, 10:1 means nothing when you have reverse implied odds for just about anything that happens after the flop. This is a great example of a spot where none of your options are +EV and you just have to select the least bad course of action. You're getting 6.5 to 1 on this turn call, but with very negative implied odds for an OOP river.

I can vaguely picture a scenario where shoving causes UTG + 1 to call off with a set hoping for the boat and CO folds a slightly higher flush like 8s9s...oh, wait, I'm thinking of the High Stakes Poker episode where DeGenyamine shoves a low flush and gets DN to fold a higher flush and Doyle to call with a set. This is real life, so I never expect that scenario to ever happen.
2/5 NL Phantom Pot Odds Quote
08-03-2013 , 12:16 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by King Fish
My main questions are: Is PF a 100% fold
more than 100%.

scs are difficult to play oop profitably, so think about the situations you would get in with 73s
2/5 NL Phantom Pot Odds Quote
08-03-2013 , 12:43 PM
I'll confess I fudged one part of the OP. My starting hand was actually 6 7, which made preflop call automatic IMO. Was curious to see what the consensus minimum holding should be when calling PF when your call closes action... Top 75% of hands?

Any thoughts on rest of hand? Any way to turn this into a profitable situation? Anyone here actually fold/raise with 67ss pre?
2/5 NL Phantom Pot Odds Quote
08-03-2013 , 01:42 PM
The main problem is having the thought of "I'm stacking off with any flush", so your play >>>>thought process. The reason the call pre flop is +EV is because of the good decisions you make on every street to come across the full range of scenarios, not because you can sometimes hit a straight or a flush.

And, no you can't make it into a profitable situation when you get overflushed!

Not straddling would be the biggest EV change you could make.
2/5 NL Phantom Pot Odds Quote
08-04-2013 , 05:28 AM
Yea, I don't see the UTG raiser having a flush here. He really have AQ, hand shaking, then checked the flop when he hits a nut flush/royal draw? Doesn't make sense imo. It looks like he has a terribly played KK, just panicked and checked the flop like quite a few people do when they flop top set. No other flush hands are in this guy's UTG+1 raising range, I'm not even 100% positive AQ is in his UTG+1 raising range... I don't think you can ever fold strictly vs. this player.

Now normally, I fold when the other guy flat calls. However, you have described him as a terrible calling station. This paints an Ax type picture or maybe even a QX/TX (straight frush drawr!). QT is also possible, just incapable of folding a straight here. So is 99. Could even be 25 I suppose. Way too many possibilities to fold to him either.

I mean, again, if this table was competent it's a pretty easy lay down. But since they're terrible, I just don't like folding here. Sigh and jam it in there.
2/5 NL Phantom Pot Odds Quote
08-04-2013 , 05:45 AM
Spoiler:
Just read your spoiler. You really think that stack sizes are too awkward for a jam? If UTG+1 villain has a set here, he's almost getting the right price to call anyway.....

30 x 7 = 210
115 + 230 + 230 = 575
You call the 115 and jam for an extra 440.
210 + 575 + 115 + 440 = 1340
440:1340 = ~ 3:1
He has 10 outs, so he needs 3.4:1 to call profitably.

If you have the best hand here (which I think you do more often than you think), stack sizes are perfect for a shove. You can easily get value from a set here, and if the set calls, calling station McGee might go for his AX too.

2/5 NL Phantom Pot Odds Quote

      
m