Hey guys, I am having issues with the HHC so my apologies for the novel. this hand occured at a casino 8 handed. Thanks for your thoughts on it....
Hero: BB with 700 stack (viewed as solid I think, on the tighter side. Mid 20s white male dressed shabbily lol) Havr not shown down any hands with either villain
Villain 1: SB with 380 stack (young Indian guy Ive never seen but bought in deep and dwindled down. Dressed sharp. He got crippled on one big hand where he shoved into a set of aces that came on the river. He had bet all 3 streets, claiming he flopped 2 pair and that the player with the AA caught up on the river. He had checkraised the player with AA on the flop, then led turn and river. we never saw his hand, but regardless he has been fairly sticky pre flop and agressive post. I just dont know if his aggression has been bluff oriented or poor value betting)
Villain 2: BTN with 800 stack (quiet early 30s lady Ive seen before, but no real observations. She has been at our table for 30 minutes and limp called a few times preflop, but never raised)
10$ straddle on
Action:
A few limp calls of straddle, then BTN raises 5x to 50. This was the size I had used pre when straddle was on, fairly standard but still weighted towards a big hand. I had seen her limp call with lower suited broadways like QTs so I am putting her pre flop on a range of 88+, QKs+. I really wasnt sure she would raise like this with anything other than TT+, AQ+, but I included the range I mentioned to be safe.
SB flats the 50. He had not 3 bet once, but had flatted big raises multiple times out of the blinds already, including the hand I mentioned earlier. Hard to narrow down but I put him on a range of 56s+, 22+, KJo+, ATo+. I would expect him to 3 bet JJ+, AQs, AKo+.
Hero has QKspades. I contemplate 3B and flatting. Later I had a friend tell me he would 3B or fold in order to avoid akward spots with flopped top pair given the player type of the intial raiser. My issue with 3B was 2 fold: stack sizes and inability to take it down pre. I just didnt see the BTN folding given the amount of money in the pot and her perceived range. If I 3B, in order to realistically take it down I would have raise to at least 3x, which would leave me OOP with a potsized bet against a player whose range could have me in bad shape. If I flop top pair, Im forced to go with it when I wont be in good shape against a Villain co tinuing range. Also, with SB being so short and being on tilt, he isnt ever folding and might even jam pre. I flat the 50.
Flop (pot 170): 5s7d8s
Action:
SB checks.
Hero: This is a mixed bag. Obviously one of the best flops for me against the BTN open range, because a large percentage of her range either didnt connect and will check, or will bet and fold to a raise. Her over pairs are also in danger, with 99, TT, and JJ all flipping with me and possibly folding to a raise and turn jam. AA, QQ, and KK dont fold on the flop, but maybe fold to a flop raise and turn jam, and even if they dont I have great equity. I also block QQ and KK and have an overcard to QQ. I am worried about SB though, as his range hits this flop fairly hard. He has great stack size to check jam, and even though I would obviously get it in against his range, I will be behind. I would rather see what the BTN does, then see the SB act again, and then decide. Hero checks.
BTN: checks (when she checks, I weight her range more towards AK, AQ, and KK/AA. I thought she would always bet her 88-JJ given the wet, coordinated board)
Turn (pot 170) Kc (board 5s7d8sKc)
Action:
SB: leads for 100. (this was weird because I thought it reduced his chance of having one pair/draw holdings like 56s, 67s, and of course any pair plus spade draw like 7Tspades, 79spades etc. I thought those hands would check given the Kc is a card that hits mine and the initial raisers range hard and he cant hope to get a fold. I thought now SB likely hands were flopped 2 pair and 55, 77, and 88. The large size given he now only had 200 behind made me think he had value because any decent player thinking of ranges would realize what a bad card it is for him.)
Hero: I have 2 options: call or raise. ( I didnt like raising and still dont because of my analysis of BTNs likely range and what ot is weighted towards after a flop check. A raise by me on the turn folds out very little of her range and gets called only by better hands. Also, SB is so short he is calling with almost all his turn leading range. I flat the 100.)
BTN: flats pretty quickly (this flat didnt surprise me and confirmed what I thought her flop check weighted her range towards. All her AK, QK, KK, and AA would take this line conceivably, all though KK would raise turn possibly.) I did think I could rule out 88, 99, TT, JJ, and QQ because both the flop and turn lines didnt make sense to me with those specific hands.
River: (pot 470) 6d (board: 5s7d8sKc6d)
Action:
SB: shoves for 210 (pot now 680)
Hero: I thought about this for a little bit but I dont think I can ever call here. SB never bluffing here, and always value betting even if its a bad value bet. I block the only bluffs, plus the BTN almost always has me beat. I sigh fold.
BTN: snap calls with......99! SB shows 66!
Analysis: I was shocked and a little tilted. I was ahead of both on the turn, and my analysis of both players holdings was exactly the opposite of what I thought, which is why I am posting it. I am suprised BTN checked 99 back on the flop with a wet board and many potential overcards. Her hand almost always gets drawn out on like it did on the the turn and more importantly she misses value. I also cant believe she called turn with the Kc on board after SB leads and I call. She is never good there with 99, and is drawing very thin especially with the flush draw on board. I am also surprised SB led turn with 66. this shows in my mind he has no concept of ranges. If he donk led flop or even check raised turn I could half ass understand, but leading turn is suicidal. I dont mind his river jam though. My question is this: did I analyze their ranges wrong during the hand? Knowing their specific holdings I obviously jam turn here, but my analysis was completely off. Thanks!
