3 hands I need some confirmation / thoughts on.

-2/5 NL Live
-9 handed
-Mostly older, tight NITs (60+) some are watching soap operas on their iPads while only playing premium hands
-Buy in for $500
-3 hour session

1st big hand:

I open for $20 mid position w/ KK. Folds around to SB (tight old man - first hand he's played in 30 mins) who calls.

FLOP: 10 3 6 (rainbow)

Villain checks

I bet $30 into pot of $45 ish

Villain raises to $80

I think he's strong and could make this play with 10s, 3s, 6s, JJ, QQ. Think for a few minutes but call.

Turn is a 4 and he leads out for $125.

I think for a while and fold, mainly based on read of his super tight image and not believing he has check raise bluff in his arsenal.

*a few hands later the guy next to me says the old man mucked a set of 3s on that hand bc the dealer turned it over on accident, making me feel better*

2nd big hand:

-a looser player has joined 4 seats to my right, hitting some big low suited connected drawing hands right off the bat.

-Looser player opens for $25 early position.

-Hero re-raised to $100 mid position with QdQh.

-SB flat calls (TAG- middle aged player. Hasn't played many hands in first hour).

-Initial raiser folds

-FLOP: AKJ all diamonds

-SB Villain checks

-I think his range is pretty strong given the $100 flat (this table hasn't seen a 3 bet to $100 yet). I have the royal flush draw but think I'm behind and don't think I get him off a big Ace here so I check back.

Turn and river go check check after bricking and no diamond and he shows A10off to take the pot.

My main second guess here is if I should have fired any street given his check. My read was AK, AQ and i don't think I'm getting him off either of those. I was correct in that my hand was behind but do you make a large bet into a tight older player here?

Final big hand:

-same old villain from hand #1
-2 early limpers, including villain
-I call from SB with Q9off
-BB checks option

FLOP: Q 5 3 rainbow

-I lead out for $15
-Folds around to villain who calls

TURN: 8

-I bet $35

-villain calls

RIVER: 9

-I think I'm ahead here as he could have any Qx, or any worse two pair, also most pocket pairs. Sets are a possibility but he hasn't shown any strength yet. I think I'm value betting for $80.

-Villain raised to $225.

I immediately say "****, again?" and tank for 5 minutes before calling and he shows 67 for the straight.

I go home dejected but happy with my reads except that last one.

All thoughts appreciated!

Thanks

2hand - i understand the context but i mostly cbet the flop, you have almost the nuts, you have to pick some value there, i know you say you cant make him fold any A but i think if you bet 3streets you make him fold.

3hand - Nothing to say he make a really blind straight im calling to.

thanks ducky.

Next time in that situation, I think C-bet is the right move.

I thought about barreling as a strategy on the flop but ultimately didn't feel comfortable getting it all in on that board. Maybe just a little gun shy from the check raise loss on hand #1.

We sometimes make the right play and still lose the hand (sometimes it feels like "more than sometimes").

It is natural to hesitate when another opportunity to "make the right play" comes along relatively soon. Even if we are properly bankrolled for doing it again and possibly losing again.

It's harder to "make the right play" that second time, but if the cards and the situation call for it, we gotta grit our teeth and do it. Easier said than done.

So first I'm not a high stakes player. I'm a micro player. But as Chase says in the micros, "I'm up about 2 fitty." So with that being said I think hand 2 is a really cool spot and a mandatory triple barrel bluff with river jam.

On this flop what's his best range? He doesn't have trip A's or K's. Probably doesn't have top two because AK would usually 4 bet. Maybe he has Q10 for the flopped straight but he still has to be worried about the flush. But you block that twice. His flushes are never the nut flush because you have Qd.

So a set of jacks should still be scared and fold to enough pressure. If the board doesn't pair he has to be scared of bigger sets and flushes. If it does pair he still has to be scared of bigger houses. If another diamond falls on an unpaired board you have the nuts.

What hands can possibly call triple barrel river jam? Maybe 10d9d for flopped second nuts. So a one combo hand that you still have any diamond as an out against.

You block the straight twice and the nut flush. He can't ever hand a hand that is comfortable getting it in and even if he does sigh call, you have equity against any possible hand he's calling with.

You're absolutely turning this hand into a bluff because worst hands are never calling. But if you are going to have a value bet range you need a bluff range. And I can't think of any hand that would be better to pick as a bluff than QQ with Qd.

Super cool spot though.

Thanks Jake.

I agree with nearly everything you said except the 4 bet with AK part. The guys at this room are particularly tight and hardly ever 3 bet let-alone 4 bet. A 4 bet from this guy is surely QQ or better.

When he flats the $100 3-bet he only really has a strong Ace or 99 or better.

I think you're right that he folds if I C-bet and barrel. I was just too afraid of the Ace and too confident in my read on his hand and being behind.

He definitely calls the C-bet though. These guys call down with any strong piece of the flop so I have to make the decision to 3 barrel with the C-bet.

It's a weird group of old guys to play with in that they usually only open premium hands strong, limp/call with suited connectors, hardly ever bluff big, and hardly ever fold top pair.

I guess best strategy is to try and stack them with made hands and tone down my river calls a little while working in some bluffs in good spots.

Thanks again for the feedback.

Rhino,

Tight old nits don’t call $100 cold at 2-5 with ATo in the SB.

Maybe he flats AK oop. But I don't see AK calling all the way. He probably is calling a c-bet as he should, but calling a turn barrel and river jam with top two on a monotone board with a straight draw and you having plenty of sets is a losing play. If he's calling you down that liberally, good. It means you're getting paid on all your sets, straights and flushes.

Actually I'd be rooting for him to call my c-bet here because I know I'm barreling my stack with MASSIVE fold equity so I want more money in the pot for me to take with my river jam.

His range is capped. Yours isn't. You have value hands that should be looking to triple barrel. That means you need some triple barrel bluffs for balance. I'm not sure what the exact frequency of bluffs should look like here, but this is the wet dream of sicko spots to turn a "made hand" into a bluff. If he is as tight as you say, you never have showdown value with QQ when both overs hit the flop.

I don't know the guy so maybe he does call down top two to a river jam here. But if he does you should be able to value bet your nuts and stack him nearly every session anyways. Your range crushes his. I played with this for a bit in equilab and assuming this is the worst hand in his range and Q10 for flopped straights, your range is still roughly 50% against his because he can't have AA or KK very often. And your exact hand is also roughly 50% against his range.

And personally given his 3 bet cold call with A10o I'd imagine at least AKs is a 4 bet but I still kept it in his range. He can also probably have some pocket pairs hoping to set mine and some suited connectors. I didn't include any of those in his range.

So his best possible range still gives you a ton of equity. You don't need many folds at all before bluffing is profitable. Even less when I don't see any hand calling 3 streets. 10d9d if no diamond hits and the board doesn't pair. Maybe Q10 if diamond doesn't hit and board doesn't pair. That's 7 combos of hands after card removal and both might fold to another diamond or paired board. And you have equity against both.

I grew up watching Dwan play on TV so I'm always hoping for one of these spots that bluffing is so +EV that I can justify it as correct instead of cool lol.

2nd hand you need to bet strong. The old man will probably call the flop and fold the turn. Your range is much stronger given the pre-flop raise. You could have a set and you have the nut flush and you have the nut flush blocker so you can represent it. I betting flop and turn strong.


3rd hand. I probably check the river because the only hands that pay you off and win are AQ, KQ, Q8, Q5, Q3 and 53 and you block the Q and given the action you can eliminate AQ and KQ. 67 can easily call 15 on the flop and easily on the turn.

Valid point there. Maybe he's not as tight as I thought he was.

Thanks for the detail. The showdown value part makes it more clear to me now. The only hands in his range I can beat with a showdown are lower pocket pairs. I pretty much have to barrel this. Just got scared.

Thanks all!

One more note here on hand #2:

After my $100 3-bet, I have about $300 left and he has about $600.

Pot is around $225. If i were to C-bet, would you do $100, $150, $200 or just shove for $300?

I don't really have enough ammo to pull off a successful barrel here unless I go $100/$100/$100 or $100/ shove on turn.

Or just shove flop....

Oh I didn't notice stack size. My b lol. My thinking is it's between shove flop or c-bet and shove turn. I'd lean more towards shoving flop. If we assume he only continues with top and bottom pair, sets and straights we get a ton of folds and still have 45% against his calling range.

Given that he showed up here with A10o I think we have to give him pretty much any two broadway cards so we get a little over half his range to fold. If we had no equity we'd need that number to be closer to 2/3 but with the equity we have I think a flop shove is profitable.

If we don't give him any two broadways we get less folds but have more equity because he has less combos that beat us so I think it's still a similar situation.

Plus if we c-bet and he jams we are forced to call and can only win on pure equity. So I think for those reasons I prefer a flop shove. I'd be interested to hear if someone disagrees though.