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Folds to me in the CO and I open AQhh for $20
4BB seems like too big a raise in late position with a strong hand. But if you expect action, then I think it is good.
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villain in the SB 3-bets to $120. I’m $1,050 effective with both Button and Villain in the SB.
One reason to 4bet would be as a bluff, but Villain doesn't have any better hands that would fold to a 4bet. Eg. AA, KK, QQ and AK are probably not folding.
Another reason to 4bet would be for value. I don't think you'll get much action from second best hand type stuff that you dominate. Possibly AJs and KQs, but that's about it.
If you think Villain has a wide 3bet bluffing range with a bunch of weak drawing hands, and is the type of player who wants to continue with that stuff versus a 3bet, perhaps there's some value to be had. But I wouldn't expect many calls from a Villain who is a good player and is OOP. I'd expect more 5bet bluffs if anything.
As for calling versus folding, calling definitely seems like the better choice. Villain seems to be 3betting a bit wide, so there's a good chance you have a card edge. But even if AJs is the bottom of her 3betting range, you have pot odds and position.
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Flop comes QJJ rainbow and she checks. Given we didn’t have much history and I’d been pretty snug, blowing her off a lesser hand by betting here seemed unnecessary and keeping Qs in my checkback range is useful so I check.
You can probably get some value from AK, pocket pairs, and straight draws. She might fold out smaller suited connectors. I'm not sure what she'd do with her suited aces. So ultimately, I see a fair amount of value to be had.
But on the other hand, if you check back, you may still be able to get two streets of value. She may want to get aggressive on the turn as a bluff. If not, she still may want to call a bet. On the river, you could get value from her two barrel bluffs, but the drawing part of her range that missed would no longer give you value, so there's that downside.
I think either approach is fine, but I think you'd maximize value by betting here in order to get value from her draws.
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Turn is a 7 bringing a fd. She checks again
Yeah, definitely need to bet this one for value after the flop checked through.
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River is an offsuit 9 and she checks. Hero ...?
She really looks like she has some sort of showdown value type hand. I would think that she'd have made an aggressive move earlier with her value hands and draws, and that she'd lead the river with her completed draws. I'm just not sure what sort of showdown value hands she could have. QT? Q9? TT? A7? 88? 66? Smaller pocket pairs? I guess there's some, but not too many. And I'm not sure that she'd call with all of them.
So this seems like it's somewhat of a tough decision, but I just don't see much of a downside to betting, and so I'd go for a thin value bet.