I have been called by top pair in this situation by villains. I think the ace turn scared off the other two villains on my turn raise, and the primary villain, while competent, made some questionable moves in previous hands, including triple-barreling a terrible board and looking up on drawy boards.

I have more failures in this situation than successes by pulling the trigger, and with my effective stack, any fish with a draw would call that raise. I learn from experience that the semi-bluff is a move best served when you have a bit more equity than 2 overs and a gutterball--I rarely take it down on the flop and usually need to draw into the win.

Two things... I think the likelihood of the primary villain having TP is pretty slim. Second, you can't have it both ways. In the OP you called him a good player that for whatever reason is playing lower. Now you are saying that he is a spewtard.

Based you calling him a good player I stand by my line, but if you are now saying he is inclined to spew, then its a fold on the flop most of the time.

He was very inconsistent--there was a period that he would raise with any 2 cards and then just shut it down. He fires 3 barrels with a pair of 7s one hand, would look people up randomly, and he clearly had a feel for the game and was trying to play potential and reads more than the board.

Heck, he even bet a flush on a KKTTx board. Perhaps "good player" is not the right term--I would say he had a "feel for the game".

You have to look at this as what can I beat that he would have called your raise with. If he has any Ace you are beat, KQ beat, Pocket 10's , Jacks or 5's, they all have you beat. All you beat here is a bluff, so the 3 Aces are nothing more then a bluff catcher.

Your PF bet was too low. Your AQ is essentially a semi-bluff.
Villain's $30 bet on the flop is a blocking bet for multiple draws or any kind of improvement (it's unclear how the board hit the villain). A fold here is in order or a $150 raise on the flop is in order. What do you think that the villain puts you on? With a $150 raise, he puts you on a big over pair or AJ, but maybe not since your pre-flop bet was too small ($15 already in the pot). A fold is probably best with three other players in the hand. I would not just call.
LAG, maybe less skillful, players are calling your small pf raise with almost any ace or pocket pair. He is not slow-playing a set with three other players and a drawy board on the flop. With a LAG image, the villain would bet much bigger on the flop with a set, hoping for at least one call and that the hero had an over pair and would make the call. LAGs know their image at the table and take advantage of it. Unlikely that the $30 dollar donk bet by the villain on the flop is a suck bet trying to conceal strength.
Pot control is in order on the turn. The villain is beating you with lots of stuff and your TPQK is probably not good enough.
The river is tough. I would probably check the river since he made a very strong call of your raise on the turn. AJ, A10 and maybe even A5 is within the range of the villain. Fold to any large bet, 1/2 pot size or more.

Y IMO

N IMO

It's trip Aces but little more than a bluff catcher with this board. Hard to imagine A good player bluffing or betting for value with worse in this spot since he knows this board hit's your range hard. IMO you have a hand that wants a cheap showdown at the river... check behind. I favor betting for value on the river in many spots and especially against calling stations... this is not one of those spots.

I don't value bet the river thin against tricky players who bluff a lot. If they are prone to bluffing with weaker hands on the river but check to us in this spot they often have a hand at least worthy of showdown... and when they do have the nuts this is where tricky players get paid off.

Wow, this hand was necroed beyond belief.

I think back to this day, and I made the play because I was tilted playing on 1 hour of sleep.

In other words, I made some really bad decisions, including playing poker at all that day. I fold the flop usually here, and if I catch the turn, the last thing I want to do is get the money in with a pair.

I just read this thread and nearly fell out of my chair laughing at responses advocating raising the flop. Anyone thinking that raising this flop is good clearly has very little live experience, because this is utterly comical. J-T-X boards for starters are literally the worst boards to possibly bluff live, and on top of that, it's two flushed (we have no spade) and there are THREE players into the mix before we act. Raising here is simply horrendous. Argue against calling all you like, but to say it's a raise-or-fold situation means that it's a fold situation.

As far as the river, call because you have too much invested and too good odds to fold to a raise of this size, but be prepared to be sick when you lose virtually every time.

As far as the river, call because you have too much invested and too good odds to fold to a raise of this size, but be prepared to be sick when you lose virtually every time.

Agree you don't want to bloat the pot there, but Villain calling the raise OOP on a broadway board, after he has bet into you twice, makes me think he is very strong there,....Agree with the others who said raise more PF...

Personally i think it was fine until the turn raise turned it into a trainwreck.

Bitchslap yourself for raising the turn, AND calling turn was no good either.
When we call the flop (good), it is with intention of making the nuts, while KNOWING that an ace can just bury us. Hero gave villain the platter in which to 100% CRAI on river.

Just go back over that thought process and you can clean that type situation up. There are MANY times that the expert play is to be able to stay in hands long enough to crush the villains (as calling flop represents), but make an expert fold on the turn when the deck is trying to trap us.

We have to lose less than 1 in 4 times which sounds slightly less than "virtually every time" for this to be profitable.

I am going to hang this on my bathroom mirror and read it every day for a week.

Folding on the flop would be a gross avoidance tactic which says "i cannot stand to make the nuts here because i will get trapped otherwise". Think about it. A King (even though rare) might get us a ton of extra cash and the pot is decent already.

My argument is this:

Although I make well-disguised nuts with a K on the turn, are the implied odds there? Is anything except a set paying me anything of significance to justify binking a gutterball here? 3 clean Ks, since one puts a flush on the board.

I do not think so, and the odds of a set are quite low given the passive bet size on the flop and the 2 calls.

I still fold the flop.

well, i was arguing dow to the pennies. I see Q9ss KT KJ enough here AND they overplay them trying to protect them if they hit. Now whether or not you really call flop or fold isnt in real dollars a big deal either way, but i always argue for even the pennies of value.

I am also arguing the pennies of value, and the chances of hitting 3 clean outs and getting paid are just so low, and we are being charged about 6-to-1 in a situation in which we really need over 10-to-1.

AT, the hand villain holds, absolutely dies out to the appearance of a K, and the only hands I am beating on the turn have many clean outs.


That said, this flop discussion is really a matter of preference. The turn and river are not--I totally spazzed and spewed, and looking back at this topic makes me a little sick that I played so poorly that day.

I am very surprised that so many 2+2ers want a fold on the flop. You are getting 6 to 1 and have 3 outs to the nuts multi-way and you are IP. I think a flop fold is terrible and way way too tight. On the turn i think you go into pot control mode. You are heads up in position with a hand that has showdown value, but is still just a one pair hand on a wet board. As played you are pot committed on the river.

Quote:

Originally Posted by AintNoLimit

well, i was arguing dow to the pennies.

WELL, if you want told fold it then i cant twist your arm. But if i have 3 clean outs to the nuts which also CAN make other players hands plus being overcard where the other villain might just lead out into me etc, it is multiway pot, and i have total position, then an argument that folding just doesnt hold water. I have the confidence in my play to be able to avoid the spots where it will cost me.

And by the way, others having many clean outs even if we hit the turn? Cmon buddy, im not worried about the 20% of time that they hit a flush on the river. I dont call that too much drawout power.

Your bet on the river is horrible and your call on the river is worse. What are you hoping to get value from on the river? A 9 or worse? Really? He donk bets 30 with A 9 on that flop with 3 people to act behind him? What competent lag that you know does that? You did describe him as a lag but a good player known around the 5-10 tables. I probably fold the flop because i never think an A is an out and I am never getting married to it on the turn like you did when K Q got their, A 10, A J, and A K have you crushed. You really only have 3 solid outs on the turn and i think you have to fold if you don't hit, however, i personally never see the turn.

CLEARLY the flop is a call and it's not even close. Raising the turn is spew. As played river is a tilt call. Villain can have Ax of spades.

YES. STOP FOLDING NUT DRAWS IN SPOTS LIKE THIS.

Just peel and fold a brick. You have 3 super clean outs here, and someone probably has the Ks anyway and will make 2 pair and never fold or something. Pot odds are insane for folding.