Hero ($1k) - TAG image...made one bad call when I got counterfeited on river and is still haunting me a few days later. Other than that, have showed up with the goods and nothing fancy. Up @$200 for session after topping off initial buyin. Been at table 2 hours.

Villain ($1k) - LAG image (level 2 or 3 player)...has shown the ability to play any 2 from any position and to mix it up....showed one bluff where he check-raised another player on the flop with nothing coordinated on the board. Showed his bluff. Seems competent but never seen him before. Varies bet-sizing.

Folds around to Hero in CO who raises $25 with QJ...villain calls from BB.

Flop ($50) - 322

Villain checks, Hero c-bets $30....V calls.

Turn ($110) - Q

Villain checks, Hero bets out $65...V check-raises to $150... Hero flats with intention of calling most rivers and don't want to blow V off of air.

River ($410) - K

V takes about 5 seconds and bets out $375....Hero??

Thoughts on all streets appreciated.

pf perfect
flop good
turn ok
river very tough spot. but we have TPokK on a paired board with 3 clubs. He showed down a bluff for a reason if he is a level 3 player. I don't mind throwing it away at all

On the flop if the Villain has any small pair, or anything like JT/T9/98 etc. he can call the flop thinking he has the best hand, improve, or can steal the pot later.

On the turn all those hands lose most of their value and we're in a WA/WB situation. So I don't know how realistic it is to get 3 streets of value.

On the turn much of the Villain's range turns from weak draws/weak made hands to total air. He's pretty much forced to get aggressive or fold with those hands.

Whether we should call/fold depends on which option he usually chooses. It sounds like he usually chooses to get aggressive but it's hard for someone not there to tell what to do.

Whatever he had in this case I'd expect him to often take this line with air.

Preflop and flop seem standard. I could see checking behind on this flop as well, as almost all pocket pairs will continue, and they're ahead of you at that point.

Your turn bet is only a little more than 1/2 the pot. Had villain seen you play your counterfeit hand? Were you value betting that hand bigger than 1/2 pot? And when villain showed his bluff, was he bluffing someone who bet half the pot? How big was his bluff in relation to the pot/bet?

His check raise is not very big. It looks a lot like a semi-bluff check raise that thinks it might have fold equity against two big cards that still didn't pair up, while also building the pot a little bit if the flush card hits.

Personally, I think I make a bigger turn bet ($75-90), but that may just be preference.

Once check raised, I think your plan of flatting and calling most rivers is fine too.

The K though (and really, any club) are some of the rivers I think that you shouldn't call. Two clubs would have matched up perfectly with this pattern. Suited clubs (any combo) may have limp called pre. And the LAG may have floated you OTF, just to set this up in case the turn was a club (and he would have otherwise shut down if no clubs came). I wouldn't be surprised to see him flip over the 45 here. Fits the way he played this hand perfectly.

Without better reads on this guy (does he think you are competent enough to fold this? How bluffy is he (other than the one hand)? In what other ways is he "competent"? How do you know he is level 2/3?), or any additional history, I'd just fold for now and move on. But then again, I may be nittier than most.

I'd expect villain to lead turn (rather than c/r) if he's got air. I'm fine with calling turn, though.

River is tough. I expect him to bet a little smaller with a king (he doesn't want to value own himself with a K, because we might have the flush).

So I think he has a flush, or air. Given that a flush is really hard to make in this game, and we're up against a LAG who knows that the turn/river are both good cards to bluff...

I call.

How good of a hand reader is this guy?

Well played to river. I prob find a fold.

I'm usually folding this river. Take out calling chips first though and let him try to table talk you. That might give an inkling of whether he's FOS.

I would lean toward checking behind on the turn, though. You've improved to a medium-strength hand that is unlikely to improve. QJ doesn't particularly want to absorb a check-raise and a river bet. It's a solid bluff catcher, and checking behind will induce a bluff from this villain 9 times out of 10.

When you bet the turn, you're expecting him to fold worse, raise with better, and raise with a mix of bluffs and semibluffs. If you check behind on the turn, you control the size of the pot, and pretty much guarantee that he'll bet the river for you with bluffs and many weaker hands.

OP: How likely is LAG villain to c/c float OOP with air on the flop? I can't imagine it happens a lot.

Flop bet is good. Am I a fool for checking behind the turn with the plan to call a river bet or possibly bet/call if checked to?

Reasoning is pretty simple/ABC: flush draw is super unlikely (54cc,A4cc,A5cc only combos I could imagine), and I just got there so now I'm way ahead of most PPs (which I expect 1 more street of value from). C/c OOP on the flop isn't likely to be air, but if it is I assume it's because he's planning to try to take it away later (so I get to call the river bet anyway without bloating the pot in those instances he has 2x/33). If he's going to turn 66 into a bluff, I'd rather let him do that on the river instead of first building a bigger pot on the turn.

I like all streets so far.

Turn is a bet IMO.

Can still get value from a lot.

Would only prefer a check if villian was aggressive with check raises.

On he river we lose to all his value hands and flush draws he was bluffing on turn with.

Really only beat hands like A5s, A4s, 65s, 54s type hands.

Considering we could also have 33, 22, QQ, KK and flushes ourselves really don't think I am calling here.

Appreciate the responses everyone...seems like there's still a mixed opinion on this one. As a side note, I was betting turn for value as I assume I was pretty far ahead of his range at this point...thinking his hand to be a middle pocket pair. Even though I'm TAG...image has always seemed to play in my favor of getting called down light. I was expecting for him to try and make a move on me though at some point....got cold feet with the Kc on river though. I figured he would only make a check-raise on turn OOP as a semi-bluff...either flush or straight draw....could have been off and had a 2 as well though. Spoiler below:

Nice read OSUTexan, as I agreed with your plan on turn and river (though as I mentioned, I would have bet slightly bigger on the turn). Looks like we're both nits and need to follow that read though.

The hand he showed makes just as much sense as 45cc, IMO. Good bet by him. At least now you'll remember both of his plays (the one prior to this one and this one) if you ever play against him again, as these moves should be memorable to you for this villain.