Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeStarr
That's what I said....its not as bad as people will think
Also, Im not as convinced as you do that we have such little FE. V2 raised to $140 and still folded. That's the main guy that we should have little fold equity against. I think if V1 didn't have the nuts he may well have folded.
Of course if V1 folded, V2 may have called, but either way, I think we have more FE than you do. There's not even a FD on the flop so a crai over a bet and raise looks like a HUGE hand.
As the hand played out, Hero risked $375 to win $627. He has 10% less EV than needed to breakeven.
He asked in the thread title if his flop jam was terrible. I'd rate it at mediocre but certainly not terrible. Whats terrible about it is that it seems like he did it because he was on tilt and that he probably doesnt understand all of these factors that we are discussing.
You play with a bunch of nits in day games. *You* may have lots of fold equity with this move, but I don't think our tilting hero does.
Judging our FE from V2 folding is pretty results oriented don't you think? He was likely on some random bluff. How often both V1 and V2 are just c betting and bluffing is what determines our FE. If V1 c bets 30% and folds his value hands 25% and V2 raise/folds 30% we get folds .3*.3 + .7*.25 = .265 or about 1 time in 4. My guess this is pretry optimistic given villain and hero descriptions. Most LAGfish villains I would expect to raise/fold here getting almost 3 to 1 almost never. Only their most worthless bluffs. Maybe like 5%. With V1 harder to guess, he could c bet this board basically any %.
The chief mistake of this hand is not topping up. Our low stack size really handcuffs our options.
If you're too tilted to trust yourself with a full stack, quit immediately.
Terrible or bad or somewhat bad, IMO the only thing that really matters is whether we played the hand in a way that maximizes our EV and if we didn't we screwed up to some degree.
But yeah, "terrible" may be an overstatement if OP thinks I mean he's just giving his stack away. No, it isn't nearly that bad but we are losing a not insignificant amount of money and raising our variance with these plays.