Hero: Early 20's reg playing standard TAG poker. Been at the table about 3 hours and have only 3-bet pre twice up to this point.

Villain: Mid 20's thinking player also playing somewhat TAG. I have seen two pots where he barreled two streets with OESD's and got paid off when he hit on the river both times. He is also capable of getting creative/trappy as I saw him smooth call a 3-bet when he opened in early position and check-raise a 9 high flop. He won the pot and showed AA.

Hero ($750) in SB with KK

Villain ($625) in MP


Pre-flop: Villain opens in MP to $30, CO calls $30, Hero re-raises to $105 in SB, Villain snap calls $75 more, CO folds

Flop ($240): QJ7

Hero bets $150, Villain shuffles chips and thinks for about 90 seconds and goes all-in for $520 total, Hero ???

Raise more pre, $120. As played call. Getting coolered sucks.

Eh, this screams set to me, likely JJ... QQ is a definitely possibility. 2p maaaybe, QJs?

raise bigger pre ($130-$150) this is a weird play. seems like KQ to me and he is just spazzing. i dont think he does this with a set or QJ. i would call.

You left out AQ, T9s, KTs, I am an optimist though.

curious as to why you think this.

I think the only way you can call is if you think he is spazzing out here with AQ. I play with some people I would snap call and some I would snap fold. It's really V dependent for me.

when you bomb flop like this with a set you are going to get hands just like KK and AA to fold way more often then when you make a standard raise. piling the flop gets too many strong hands to fold

I agree that I should have raised larger pre, but if you don't think he does this with a big hand how does he play a set or QJ? Just smooth call leaving only $370 behind in a pot that would then be ~$540? I feel like my hand is kind of face up at this point. If you were villain and you assumed your opponent had KK or AA would you give them credit for being able to fold to your shove on a dry Q-high flop for an amount slightly larger than a 3x raise?

Definitely raise more pre, $125 would be better.

Based on your description of villain... thinking player, TAG, and making what sound like possibly reasonable plays as described, I think you're in trouble.

His raise/calling range pre is going to be very narrow. He's probably not calling off small pairs to set mine for ~12% of stacks. He's probably not calling broadway suited connectors like QJs or JTs, though it's obviously not impossible. Ditto with KT, just very unlikely.

I think his range is very narrow and focused around middle-high pocket pairs, like 99-QQ (QQ given your very tight 3-bet range)... and maybe like AK? Maybe. I'm very focused on those mid-pairs.

You're in trouble because he's not shoving TT. If he somehow had AQ, that would be a very spastic and stupid shove on his part. He can't have a flush draw, and he almost never has a straight draw, so I think you're just beat very often.

I do think he has JJ and QQ a ton here and has reason to think you have a very strong range and will pay him off frequently enough.

You are getting like 2.5:1. I don't think that's enough. The odds are very tempting, but he should know that, and I think he expects you to call.

So fold.

Funny I was thinking this exact thing.

I disagree. People have a really hard time folding AA/KK here. Sure some do but I think we make more money by jamming sets here. It's only $370 more and most people can't fold AA/KK for $370 in this spot.

What hands do you put him on when he does this? We look really strong here so I don't think most thinking players are spazzing with KQ like you said above.

I'm also not sure how I should read that snap call pre-flop? I agree that I should 3-bet larger but how should his $75 snap call affect his range, if at all?

From my perspective, it means he didn't have to think, and 99-QQ, maybe TT-QQ especially, are easy-don't-have-to-think-calls in position facing a relatively small 3-bet with some money in the pot. QQ could be a 4-bet hand in some circumstances, but you're saying you almost never 3-bet and villain is thinking...

Agree. If he had AA or KK I think he would have thought about it a little more.

This is exactly the same line he has taken in this hand. Makes you think he has AA+ at minimum here.

Fold. If he's bluffing, so be it.

Ding ding! My thoughts exactly.

Unless you have the image of a super-nit or if he has shown in the past to overvalue his hands and make big raises like this with marginal hands, this is a clear fold. The QJ board is terrible for our hand regardless of history - I would be putting QQ and JJ into a huge part of a typical TAG's range here. There are no huge draws out there that can reasonably shove. I'd have to fold.

Rolls eyes.

He's already opened an EP with AA, flatted a 3B and check raised a 9 high flop. Doesn't any of this seem a bit familiar?!

Your Villains range is:

AA, KK, QQ, JJ, K10s, 109s, QJs, 77, AQ, AJ, AK

(Air is so so unlikely to feature in said Villain's range on such a dry board)

Hands you beat.

AQ, AJ, K10, AK

The rest you are crushed against.

I'd be shocked if this type of Villain is shoving with K10 or calling a 3B pre with K10 QJ possible even 77.

If he had a hand like K10 for instance (which I doubt), he will be aware that makes you less likely to have KK. And with your post flop strength he can narrow your range to just JJ, QQ, AA (to me your hand is pretty much face up post flop, with your nitty style). Now if he is taking this long to decide, why would he ship K10, knowing you potentially have two of his blockers, if he's using his own blockers to work out you unlikely have KK. If he can't put you on KK, and would never ship K10, with (him thinking) you have his blockers, that leaves you with JJQQ, maybe even AQ. He knows you're snapping with JJ - QQ, so again K10 makes no sense, and the only hand folding is AQ.

I think a hand like 109 never calls pre unless super deep. You have blockers to 109 and he knows you're never folding JJ, QQ. A hand like 109 could get lay downs from hands like KK and AA however, and is well disguised in this spot and can look like something you really fear, but it just seems so implausible.

Your Villain is so unlikely to be calling a 3B with QJ, maybe if you was playing really deep again.

At worst you're crushed by:

JJ QQ AA and 77 QJ (which I think are so so unlikely)

You're chopping:

KK (can't see him making a move with this hand either when your range is so narrow).

You beat:

AQs and K10s/109s. I'd be stunned if Villain as described took 90 seconds to ship K10. And AQ ship is kind of a bluff when you show such strength. The only hand that folds out is AK. Can't see our Villain showing up with either of these hands.

He also knows you are capable of hitting the fold button, but your 3B pre and your post flop aggression he has to know you have a hand and is never ever ever bluffing in this spot. He has to have a hand he knows has you crushed, and took so long to decide what the right play was. If he's bluffing, it's pretty sick advanced that he can exploit you in this way, he'd literally have to put you on your exact cards. Like why would he shove when you could easily have QQ yourself? He's just never bluffing.

In your description of Villain you practically spelt out why you should fold in this spot.

Raise to around 125-135 next time.

As Played:

Fold.

Hope it worked out for you either way.

It's $370 for Villain to call. There is ($240+$150+$520)=$910 in the pot. So he is getting 2.46:1 odds, and therefore needs at least 29% equity to call.

Against the range you gave yourself:

Board: QJ7
*******Equity*****Win*****Tie
MP2****56.89%**55.86%***1.02%*{ KdKc }
MP3****43.11%**42.09%***1.02%*{ JJ+, 77, AJs+, KTs, QJs, T9s, AJo+ }


Making it a clear call, using your own assumptions. And if he ever shows up with KQs or a gutshot+backdoor flush draw from time to time, that only makes it even more of a call.

Pretty much all you need to know when it comes to critical thinking in this hu.

Apologies - I meant the only hands he could have in a spot like this. Given analysis you can narrow it down to the below.

What he has is AA KK QQ JJ (I said QJ K10 AQ 109 unlikely thus ruled out, as well as hands like AJ, KQ etc)

The point I was trying to make, albeit a bit messy was he's never bluffing and is certainly ahead of Hero. Equity against JJ-AA ? Not 29%

Meh, that's a pretty tight range. And there's a significant difference between his range calling a 3-bet OOP (when he had AA), and his range calling a 3-bet IP (one that's too small too) and he has a 3rd guy in the hand (original preflop caller) giving him more odds.

If you even add AQ to his range, which I don't think is unreasonable:


Board: QJ7
*******Equity*****Win*****Tie
MP2****45.45%**43.45%***2.00%*{ KdKc }
MP3****54.55%**52.55%***2.00%*{ JJ+, AQs, AQo }

So yes if he has nothing but sets/overpairs, it's a fold. But quite literally if you add any other hands whatsoever to his range, it's a call. So unless you have a read that he's very nitty I think it's a call.

Your read makes it a call. If he was an old man nit it's a fold.

3b way way more pf, 105 is bad

Bet fold or check/evaluate

AJ+? Really?

If you get stacked here and he has a set, this is not a cooler. You have 1 pair. He snap called you preflop and now he's betting 100 bb's. Fold, wait for a better spot. If he shows a bluff, put it in the memory bank for future usage. I lol how people call getting stacked with 1 pair a cooler