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/ NL: Flipping with AK vs QQ / NL: Flipping with AK vs QQ

04-14-2014 , 04:39 AM
Is it good to flip with AK for $500 or $200 or $300? Basically it usually goes like this V raises, I 3-bet, V either 4-bets or ships and I call and he shows QQ... and I lose. Happened twice already.

Also, I'm thinking if there's a call in between, meaning V raises, someone calls, I 3-bet and the caller is folded out, is there a good chance that he folded out Ax or Kx, thus killing one of my outs?
/ NL: Flipping with AK vs QQ Quote
04-14-2014 , 04:41 AM
Really vague question without a scenario to go off of. Generally, I'm not calling an AI 4! With AK unless I have history with the villain
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04-14-2014 , 07:34 AM
You know you're supposed to lose the majority of the time, don't you? As for the situation above, if you 3 bet AK, you shouldn't fold it to a 4 bet unless he only 4bets AA and KK.
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04-14-2014 , 07:51 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by venice10
You know you're supposed to lose the majority of the time, don't you? As for the situation above, if you 3 bet AK, you shouldn't fold it to a 4 bet unless he only 4bets AA and KK.
Well said.

OP, I am sure you are well aware of your odds with AK vs. QQ, so whether or not you should flip for 100x after 3b'ing should really not even be a question, as you will clearly almost always have odds to flip and would be making a mistake by folding.

I think you would do better to ask yourself how AK does against different villains' 4b/ship ranges. Against some villains we might even consider folding to their open, whereas with others we are 3/4b'ing looking to get our stack in preflop.
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04-14-2014 , 07:57 AM
Before you ask that kind of question i belive its a couple of other questions you need to answer first.

Is the villain open raising on a wide range? Is he opening a lot of hands? Or his he pretty tight and you stil 3 bet AK against him?

If the villain is laggy and on a wide range, IMO we 3 bet AK from a value perspective and as Venice points out you should not fold it you got 4 bet.

But if the villain you 3 bet is a tight/nittyish villain, you pretty much knows for sure your beat if he comes in for the 4 bet preflop. A tight rockish villain will never ever 4 bet with AQ or a worse hand, he is pretty much capped to KK/AA and the rare QQ. So against that type of villain IF i plan on 3 bet AK, its with the plan of folding to a 4 bet.
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04-14-2014 , 07:58 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by gotwoot
Well said.

OP, I am sure you are well aware of your odds with AK vs. QQ, so whether or not you should flip for 100x after 3b'ing should really not even be a question, as you will clearly almost always have odds to flip and would be making a mistake by folding.

I think you would do better to ask yourself how AK does against different villains' 4b/ship ranges. Against some villains we might even consider folding to their open, whereas with others we are 3/4b'ing looking to get our stack in preflop.

The bolded part is pretty much a bullseye, and i agree 100 percent.
/ NL: Flipping with AK vs QQ Quote
04-14-2014 , 08:29 AM
The answer is do some ranging and do some math.

Lets take a few sample scenarios (ignoring how good or bad the actual play is):

You open to 5bb with AKs, someone flats in between, villain 3bets to 20bb, we 4bet to 55bb, and he ships for 150bb. Everyone else folds out of turn.
Should we call? Well, it's 95bb more for us to call, and there is 210bb in the pot. We need 30.1% equity against his range.

Scenario two:
Villain opens to 5bb, we 3bet to 15bb with AKs, we get two cold callers in between (good table!) and villain ships for 150bb. Everyone else folds out of turn.
Should we call? Well it's 135bb more for us to call, and there's 195bb in the pot. We need 40.9% equity against his range.

Bonus question:
Villain opens to 5bb, 4 people flat in between, we 3bet to 25bb and 2 people cold call (hell, this table is awsome!) and villain ships for 80bb but he accidentally flips over his hand and he has an Ace in it. Everyone else folds out of turn. Should we call? Well it's 55bb more for us to call, and there's 175bb in the pot. We need 23.9% equity against his range.

Then we do some math and apply it to all the situations above.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 46.049% 45.83% 00.22% 18834720 89058.00 { AKs }
Hand 1: 53.951% 53.73% 00.22% 22082460 89058.00 { QQ }

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 34.586% 34.22% 00.37% 28123620 302808.00 { AKs }
Hand 1: 65.414% 65.05% 00.37% 53461356 302808.00 { QQ+ }

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 37.669% 28.81% 08.86% 29594292 9105960.00 { AKs }
Hand 1: 62.331% 53.47% 08.86% 54932028 9105960.00 { QQ+, AKs }

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 40.038% 33.65% 06.39% 48395820 9192330.00 { AKs }
Hand 1: 59.962% 53.57% 06.39% 77053056 9192330.00 { JJ+, AKs }

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 42.806% 27.76% 15.05% 51337164 27822786.00 { AKs }
Hand 1: 57.194% 42.15% 15.05% 77946096 27822786.00 { JJ+, AKs, AKo }

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 38.792% 02.81% 35.98% 6938592 88710726.00 { AKo }
Hand 1: 61.208% 25.23% 35.98% 62211732 88710726.00 { AA, AKs, AKo }

So, we have these different ranges, we take our villain, we take the size of the pot, we take our hand, and we generalize what we think his shipping range is in each situation. Then we see if we have the correct equity, and we call or fold based on that.
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04-15-2014 , 02:03 PM
1. We have blockers to AA and KK although I'm not sure how to quantify it.

2. I get the part about calling/not calling the 4-bet giving our equity vs the 4-bet range and the pot odds. Generally the villain's 4-bet range is QQ+ and AK with AA and KK somewhat discounted due to our blockers. So I can estimate that range reasonably well.

But my question is should I even 3-bet AK in the first place? Or just call? Once we 3-bet and get 4-bet, the hand pretty much plays itself and we generally have to stack off (100BB stacks). But should we even 3-bet in the first place?

I ran AK vs what I think is an average open range for a $2/$5 player:


equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 52.022% 45.99% 06.03% 1020578268 133864752.00 { AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 47.978% 41.95% 06.03% 930838212 133864752.00 { 66+, AJs+, AJo+ }

So we're slightly ahead but that's given all 5 cards run out. We're 60% to miss the flop. BUT with the 3-bet we have a) Fold Equity b) initiative in the hand even OOP.

So I'm still confused in other words
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04-15-2014 , 02:08 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Olaff
1. We have blockers to AA and KK although I'm not sure how to quantify it.

2. I get the part about calling/not calling the 4-bet giving our equity vs the 4-bet range and the pot odds. Generally the villain's 4-bet range is QQ+ and AK with AA and KK somewhat discounted due to our blockers. So I can estimate that range reasonably well.

But my question is should I even 3-bet AK in the first place? Or just call? Once we 3-bet and get 4-bet, the hand pretty much plays itself and we generally have to stack off (100BB stacks). But should we even 3-bet in the first place?

Its quite obvious villain dependent, as you probably already are aware of.

1) If it is a laggy active villain, i am more than happy to 3 bet AK for value against his opening range- and not folding to a 4 bet.

2) If i am facing an UTG open from a nitty/rockish villain on the other hand, AK its not a mandatory 3 bet from my point of view. IF i plan on 3 betting him (from a betsizingtell, maybe he is wider than normal due to just lost a big pot or whatever), its with the intention of folding to a possible 4 bet. I have couple of nitty villains i play with regurarly and when they comes in with the rare 4 bet preflop, AK its just smashed by that range. I dont care if we have blockers: these kind of villains shows up with KK/AA every single time that kind of preflop action happens.
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