Main villain in hand is unknown but is a reg. He is younge white guy who is fairly agressive. Has barreled river 3 times in past few hours and has been looked up and had complete air every time. One of the hands was a 3 bet pot where he raised river and was called w/ 3rd pair (which was top pair on the flop) but villain barreled two over cards on turn and river.

Hero is effective stack w/ ~800 and villain covers.

OTTH

Active player opens to 20 in mid position. Folds to hero on button with J7cc. Usually a fold but player in mid position had been opening several hands in the past few orbits and playing fit or fold pretty much and was deep. Main villain calls in the SB and BB folds.

Flop (60) Js10c7s

Checks to hero who bets 40. Main villain raises to 150. Initial raiser folds and hero calls.

Turn (360) 3h

Villain bets 225. Hero calls.

River (810) 2d

Villain shoves. Hero?

Obvious value hands I expect him to have are J10, 89s, 77, maybe 10s, but I suspect hed 3bet this hand and JJ id def expect him to 3bet. Obvious bluffs are missed spades, KQ, 56s.

fold pre my man J7 suited is garage

i knowwww im folding this hand about 80 percent of the time even on the button but I figured Id see a flop in position.

Definitely fold pre. Even if playing a active player, you are at best toss up against V's range.

AP, I would x/c, spade draw didn't get there and you would be essentially calling ~400 into a pot of 1200 if he shoves.

x/c? Im on the button and villain is first to act. Do you mean i should check the flop? And let him lead turn?

This should give you your answer, never folding

Preflop
I agree with the flat if you are confident in your reads. You can make money IP by floating, and when you smash the flop implied odds are great because stacks are deep. Great job adjusting to your opponent and to the situation!

Flop
I like the flop bet. I'd actually size it even bigger because of how draw heavy this board is. Pot would be nice.

When you get raised, I actually think that it's close. I wouldn't think that Villain would be check-raising anything for value that you beat other than T7, ie. I wouldn't think that TPTK would be raising, so your two pair actually looks more like a bluff catcher. Since Villlain is aggro, I think that we can certainly credit him for bluffs.

I ran an analysis here. It looks to me like it's a call, but only slightly. You have about 33-39% equity, depending on how many flush draws your opponent is bluffing. You only need 30% based on the pot odds, but I think that there are some reverse implied odds here, because you easily could end up calling another street when you're behind, so it seems very close to me. If you remove JTo from Villain's preflop range, things get a little bit better, but it's still close.

Turn
I think that the turn is pretty similar to the flop. Villain probably has a few less bluffs in his range, which hurts your equity, but his flush draws are less strong with only one card to come, so that helps your equity. If Villlain is super aggro I lean towards calling, but if he isn't I'd expect a lot less bluffs, and thus lean towards folding.

River
Again, your hand is really a bluff catcher at this point, so it's a question of how often Villain is bluffing. You have seen him three barrel, but that doesn't mean that he always three barrels. Three times in a few hours isn't too often. It says that he's capable, but not that he's a nut who spews all of the time.

I think that things are a little bit different in this spot when Villain starts off by check-raising a dangerous flop vs two opponents than if it were a situation where Villain opened from the BTN and went heads up vs the BB. In the latter situation, I'd expect more three barrels, in the former, less. I lean towards not crediting Villain with enough bluffs to justify a bluffcatch, so I'd fold. But I can definitely see a call if Villain is in fact aggro enough.

Wow this was awesome I truly appreciate the in depth analysis.

Agreed that with less hx we shouldnt be assuming villain is aggro enough to triple barrell. I thought that however that given the fact that the initial raiser folded to me and then I bet that if he were to have semi bluffs in this spot that it would be more likely given the fact that I may taking a stab at the pot (though I had not demonstrated this tendency at all yet)

Any thoughts on villains choice of sizing on the turn? This larger sizing in my view at the time weighted him toward more bluffs, though, at my stack depth I imagine this sizing was chosen to get prepare a river shove. I considered folding the turn (knowing full and well that my timing may suggest to villain that i was weak/1 pair and induce a bluff on missed river). Folding the turn just seemed way too explotaitive when I believed I had one of the best bluff catchers I could have. Also, perhaps villain gives up or better yet perhaps villain is actually afraid of clubs and checks.

You're getting 3:1 on the river and every draw missed, pretty much have to call. He's probably squeezing JJ, TT so the only made hands you lose to are JT and 77.
Edit: also flopped straight obv, unsure how many offsuit combos hes playing though

Sure thing!

Yeah, I think that the sample size is a little bit too small to be adjusting too much. There's a chapter in Ed Miller's book How To Read Hands At No Limit Holdem called Profiling Players Using Bayesian Inference that comes to mind. He talks about how you should usually err on the side of using population tendencies and not overreact to small samples. Here's an excerpt:

As for the turn size, I'd actually think that the larger size indicates strength. Ed Miller talks about this in The Course (yes, I'm a huge Ed Miller fan lol). One thing he says is that when your opponent bets an amount that puts their stack at risk, they usually "have it". Another thing he says is that when pots get significant, bigger usually means strength and smaller is usually a bluff or a bet to "see where they're at".

At smaller stakes games, the frequency with which people bluff usually just isn't enough to justify defending with bluff catchers. I think that you really need to see some solid evidence that Villain is exploitatively bluffing, or even bluffing at the GTO frequency before you start defending. So even if it's at the top of your bluff catching range, I wouldn't worry too much about it. To get a better intuition for this, I'd recommend railing some high stakes games. It's crazy how much they are bluffing and raising and continuing! When your opponents start playing like that, then you have to worry about defending

+1

If you think V has a draw, you should be shoving turn. They usually just show up with a better hand here even on a draw-heavy board, there's more value combos than missed draws and V probably 3b Axss at some frequency. As played don't think you can fold riv with everything bricking and half your stack in already.

Sb c/r is pretty tough here. Guess he could have a bunch of draws in theory being a spazzy reg and turn and river are bricks. Buttt he c/r 2 people on flop and river you only have 400 left and I imagine if you called flop and turn he can't expect many folds here. Sort of depends on villains blockers to narrow what you have but if he has Ks Qs As or 9s then he can really cut down your draw combos that cant call. I'd guess he'd assume 1 pair hands aren't folding.

Still can't decide if I'm folding river but leaning towards yes.

Also pre is so so bad. At least spew like a man and 3b.

If we think he has a draw, wouldn't it better to call and fold if the draw gets there on the river, saving 80bbs? Why pass up the chance to play 100% perfectly when a horrible river comes? Also if we call turn and the draw comes in OTR, he may check a better hand like 77 to us. I'm not sure about turning 2p into a bluff but if he does check to us I think could be to c/f a reasonable % of the time.

There's something to be said for blocking the hell out of a lot of value combos. One combo of 77, two combos of JTs, and four 89s. I think we can come up with a lot of draws he would play this way to make it a fine call down. It's not uncommon at all at 2/5 to fastplay big draws on this flop.

Result:

So given the spades bricked, OESD bricked, and that I blocked bottom set and would have expected villain to 3! 10s, JJ and I decided to begrudingly call.

Villain had J10o.

TBH I expected to see J10s here every now and then but in game discounted the 16 combos of J10. Regardless, given that I had J7 in mind I expected to see 10s here more commonly.

I figured I had better hands that I would fold such has AJ,, 99, 88 etc

Seems like its pretty close btw call or fold and unfortunately the earlier hands I witnessed probably weighted too heavily toward a call. If I were deeper I actually might have been weighted toward a fold since I wouldnt have been as pot committed.

Main lesson learned is fold pre. lol

flop is fine,
turn I would just "stick it in his eye" and get it allin, and if he has one of those 3 more likely value hands then so be it , we are not folding on this turn ever can we ? even though V has setup previous hands to get paid here IDK you flop pretty huge, you'll have to utilize your live reads and also recall how he played simliar value hands in these spots oop, and make an all rounded thought out decision, but likely still getting it in on the turn, LOL

flatting turn puts you in way too many tough spots imo on river runouts , where if a spade , or connecting board cards fall youd likely be facing alot more pressure,

main thing here is " If your calling the turn then you should likely be jamming the turn allin " especially based on stack depths remaining,

as played I likely tank call the river,

OOP I think I would be more likely to jam turn given that we are no longer controlling the action. however, IP I think I like call because I still have a pot sized bet left and the river can still go check check which in this scenario would be ideal.

I think when I jam turn IP I give him an a better opportunity to play perfect. Also I think this particular villain would fold his draws and call his obvious values. I dont think by shoving turn I get anything better to fold. The only mistake the villain can make at this point would be call off w/ a single pair, which I dont think hed take this line with.

I think if Im going to play a hand like J7s IP Ill likely have settle w/ being put in tough spots. If spades did come in villain likely checks and we check back and save money. If we jam turn when villain correctly calls w/ better and spades come in we still get stacked.