Hero ($450)- 30 year old male, TAG regular. Taken some beats tonight so image might not be as strong against unknown villain.

V1 (covers Hero) - older male play LAG style. Playing a lot of pots and mixing it up. Saw him try to pull off a weak river bluff earlier in session. Appears to be taking advantage when other players are showing weakness.

V2 (covers Hero) - TAG European, irrelevant in hand

Table 9 handed:

Hero looks down at TT and raises to $25 in EP. V1 calls from CO and V2 calls from BB.

Flop ($77) 843

V2 checks, Hero bets out $40, V1 calls and V2 folds.

Turn ($157) 6

Hero bets out $85...V1 tanks and calls.

River ($327) 4

Hero???

What are thoughts on betting turn?? Thoughts on B/F river?? Checking river??

Meh, that's a horrible card.

The heart flush got there, which is the biggest problem here. 54 and 42 rivered trips. 75s turned a straight.

If you're bluff catching, it's almost exclusively against 97, T9. You block the **** out of T9 though. He just won't have that many bluffs here.

I do not expect him to turn 8x, 6x, 77, 55 into buffs.

I do not expect him to value bet 99.

So yeah, see what he does when you check, but plan to check/fold to anything but a very small bet.

Nice bet on the turn.

I'm check/folding to most river bets, unless they're of that extremely weak variety you mentioned in V's description.

Other than flushes, his range is primarily comprised of hands w/ SDV that are weak enough that betting would be turning them into a bluff. I'd put a lot of faith in the transparency of his action OTR.

What you do here is villain dependent. From the flop to the turn, you played it exactly like you'd play an AK. Raise pre from early position, c-bet/c-bet. If you really had AK, he would certainly be justified in calling so long as the big cards aren't falling and he has a piece of that board. What looks strange is that tank on the turn. Is he Hollywooding, or does that seem legitimate? If he's not Hollywooding, then that turn tank can mean one of two things: he was drawing at a flush, and backed into a straight and needed to confirm all his ducks were really in a row. It could also mean his vision isn't what it used to be, and he needed to check to be sure the red card wasn't a heart.

Now that a heart has dropped on the end, my inclination would be to check the river and drop to anything but a very small bet, and certainly fold to a ship. If he was Hollywooding, then check/call, as he's already demonstrated he can river bluff.

OP, you did originally post this with a 863hh flop and turn 4d, river 4h, yes?

If not, then I'm going crazy.

I was curious, so I looked it up - if we give him a few combos of 8x, some of his better heart draws + combo draws (assuming he doesn't call turn with 100% of his flush draws), 99, 77-55, plus 75s and 54s, we are winning 67% of the time on the river, which is more often than I thought. Even if we broaden the combos of flush draws he is calling on the turn, our equity is probably > 60%.

I would hope it goes check-check on the river a lot of the time.

If we keep the above range, and we speculate that he bets 1/2 pot 100% of the time when he is ahead and also bets 1/2 pot some percentage of the time as a bluff, he has to be making that bluff pretty often (basically 1/3 of the times that he is behind) to make it a break-even call for us.

If he bets 100 he has to be bluffing a lot less, like a little less than 1/6 of the times he misses, to make it a decent call.

Not a lot of players at this level, even those who fit the description of this V, are bluffing often enough to make this a call, imo. I think even if he bets 100 we should frequently c/f absent a strong live read.

Also, it doesn't matter that much whether we think he was more likely to tank-call with a weak made hand or a draw on the turn; once we get to the river, he has to be weighted pretty heavily towards weak made hands AND bluff them pretty often to change the math all that much.

For the same reason, I think a blocking bet is unlikely to add much to our EV.

For example, say we are ahead 67% of the time and behind 33%.

If we check, he will bet 40% of the time. He will bet all his better hands and he will bluff around 10% of his worse hands. We will c/f 100% of the time that he bets.

Our EV in that scenario is $196.20.

Now let's say, again, we have the best hand two out of three times, but this time we elect to make a blocking bet of $100. He will call or raise with all his better hands, and fold all his worse ones.

Our EV in that scenario is (-100)(.33)+(327)(.67) or $189.09.

Even if that blocking bet gets called by, say, 10% of his losing hands, and never raised as a bluff, our EV is only (.33*-100)+(.6*327)+(.07*427) = $193.09.

So he would have to make a weak bluff pretty damn often for us to profitably c/c or execute a blocking bet on this river. And, again, this is in a scenario where we made pretty optimistic assumptions about him flatting two streets with a worse made hand a good % of the time.

If he tank called the turn, then betting river wont serve any purpose.

I would check and be forced to read his sizing if he bets.

yes, had the 6 and 4 backwards.

Continued:

Hero checks, Villains bets out $200. Hero???

b/f > c/c unless vil will bet all of his hands on the river for whatever reason.

You need to have reads like the one above with or without bey sizing tells before checking isnt a huge mistake. What to do after you made the mistake isnt worth discussing.

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The way the hand has played out, the V hasn't shown any strength on any street. Has the V raised on the flop with draws in position in previous pots? This is the most important factor to me in determining what to do on the river. Many LAG players will put a semi-bluff raise in on the flop here. The fact that he didn't raise the flop (being a LAG player) would make me less concerned about the flush. I would be more inclined to put him on 99, suited 8X, or a small PP.
If he had turned a straight I would expect a raise on the turn to protect his hand against your very possible A♥️K♥️ or A♥️Q♥️. I think we can eliminate the likelihood of him having a set as he would want to put in a raise at some point to protect his hand.
If it were me I would definitely check the river (betting out here doesn't make any sense IMO) and call any bet of $200 or less. When the scare card (♥️) comes on the river, a LAG player will almost always fire if checked to giving you a chance to get extra value out of your OP. Even if he has 99 or suited 8X he will likely bet to try and get the JJ/QQ/KK to lay down. And if he somehow has the flush or suited A4... "Chips!" :P

My friends, I believe it is time for a blocker bet. $85/f nh.

fold.

i like the suggestion of betting really small on the river and folding to a raise. like betting 50-60 is totally fine here. readless i'd check/fold though.

Check/fold is best.

I really don't like the idea of a small b/f.

If villain is good enough to turn a made hand like 65 into a bluff on the river, then he's definitely good enough to raise a super duper weak looking river bet on a flush card.

If we bet small like 50-90 on the river, we're just GIVING AWAY money. With that line, we never have a flush in our range, but villain can rep plenty.

OP already wrote that V: "Appears to be taking advantage when other players are showing weakness."

So check and decide, and I'd just check/fold here. If he's bluffing with 76, 65, A+ to him. Either way, he has a ton of flushes in his range, and the board 6 blocks 1/4 of 76, 65.

bet flop and turn bigger, c/eval depending on sizing now, leaning towards c/c against described

x/f sucks

how does hero never have a flush...?

lol i bet small here to induce raises all the time. i would do it with a flush a lot. but i would have to know that the villain is aggro.

we can totally have a flush here.

also i will take that line against a nit as a bluff when he is capped at one pair and everything gets there. but since villain here exploits signs of weakness bet small is bad.

i think against the general player pool it's a good move. in a vacuum we will usually get the cheap showdown we want here.

Given your description of V1, I'm check-calling all shoves, check-folding all value-bets (ie 140-175).

my bad, didnt see hero action otr