Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >

Notices

Live Low-stakes NL Discussion of up to 3/5 live no-limit, pot-limit and spread-limit Texas Hold'em poker games, situations and strategies.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 05-21-2014, 12:53 AM   #1
OSUTexan
old hand
 
OSUTexan's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2012
Posts: 1,210
2/5 NL in EP against old man LAG

Hero ($450)- 30 year old male, TAG regular. Taken some beats tonight so image might not be as strong against unknown villain.

V1 (covers Hero) - older male play LAG style. Playing a lot of pots and mixing it up. Saw him try to pull off a weak river bluff earlier in session. Appears to be taking advantage when other players are showing weakness.

V2 (covers Hero) - TAG European, irrelevant in hand

Table 9 handed:

Hero looks down at TT and raises to $25 in EP. V1 calls from CO and V2 calls from BB.

Flop ($77) 843

V2 checks, Hero bets out $40, V1 calls and V2 folds.

Turn ($157) 6

Hero bets out $85...V1 tanks and calls.

River ($327) 4

Hero???

What are thoughts on betting turn?? Thoughts on B/F river?? Checking river??
OSUTexan is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-21-2014, 01:00 AM   #2
Willyoman
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Willyoman's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
Posts: 10,468
Re: 2/5 NL in EP against old man LAG

Meh, that's a horrible card.

The heart flush got there, which is the biggest problem here. 54 and 42 rivered trips. 75s turned a straight.

If you're bluff catching, it's almost exclusively against 97, T9. You block the **** out of T9 though. He just won't have that many bluffs here.

I do not expect him to turn 8x, 6x, 77, 55 into buffs.

I do not expect him to value bet 99.

So yeah, see what he does when you check, but plan to check/fold to anything but a very small bet.
Willyoman is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-21-2014, 01:11 AM   #3
Cheers4Booze
centurion
 
Join Date: Sep 2012
Location: Drawing like DaVinci
Posts: 143
Re: 2/5 NL in EP against old man LAG

Nice bet on the turn.

I'm check/folding to most river bets, unless they're of that extremely weak variety you mentioned in V's description.

Other than flushes, his range is primarily comprised of hands w/ SDV that are weak enough that betting would be turning them into a bluff. I'd put a lot of faith in the transparency of his action OTR.
Cheers4Booze is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-21-2014, 01:19 AM   #4
Kyuubimon
grinder
 
Kyuubimon's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2011
Location: The Digital World
Posts: 686
Re: 2/5 NL in EP against old man LAG

Quote:
Originally Posted by OSUTexan View Post
Flop ($77) 843

V2 checks, Hero bets out $40, V1 calls and V2 folds.

Turn ($157) 6

Hero bets out $85...V1 tanks and calls.

River ($327) 4

Hero???

What are thoughts on betting turn?? Thoughts on B/F river?? Checking river??
What you do here is villain dependent. From the flop to the turn, you played it exactly like you'd play an AK. Raise pre from early position, c-bet/c-bet. If you really had AK, he would certainly be justified in calling so long as the big cards aren't falling and he has a piece of that board. What looks strange is that tank on the turn. Is he Hollywooding, or does that seem legitimate? If he's not Hollywooding, then that turn tank can mean one of two things: he was drawing at a flush, and backed into a straight and needed to confirm all his ducks were really in a row. It could also mean his vision isn't what it used to be, and he needed to check to be sure the red card wasn't a heart.

Now that a heart has dropped on the end, my inclination would be to check the river and drop to anything but a very small bet, and certainly fold to a ship. If he was Hollywooding, then check/call, as he's already demonstrated he can river bluff.
Kyuubimon is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-21-2014, 01:49 AM   #5
Willyoman
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Willyoman's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
Posts: 10,468
Re: 2/5 NL in EP against old man LAG

Quote:
Originally Posted by Willyoman View Post
Meh, that's a horrible card.

The heart flush got there, which is the biggest problem here. 54 and 42 rivered trips. 75s turned a straight.

If you're bluff catching, it's almost exclusively against 97, T9. You block the **** out of T9 though. He just won't have that many bluffs here.

I do not expect him to turn 8x, 6x, 77, 55 into buffs.

I do not expect him to value bet 99.

So yeah, see what he does when you check, but plan to check/fold to anything but a very small bet.
OP, you did originally post this with a 863hh flop and turn 4d, river 4h, yes?

If not, then I'm going crazy.
Willyoman is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-21-2014, 02:20 AM   #6
ham on rye
Pooh-Bah
 
ham on rye's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: brevity is the soul of wat
Posts: 5,298
Re: 2/5 NL in EP against old man LAG

Quote:
Originally Posted by Willyoman View Post
Meh, that's a horrible card.

The heart flush got there, which is the biggest problem here. 54 and 42 rivered trips. 75s turned a straight.

If you're bluff catching, it's almost exclusively against 97, T9. You block the **** out of T9 though. He just won't have that many bluffs here.

I do not expect him to turn 8x, 6x, 77, 55 into buffs.

I do not expect him to value bet 99.

So yeah, see what he does when you check, but plan to check/fold to anything but a very small bet.
I was curious, so I looked it up - if we give him a few combos of 8x, some of his better heart draws + combo draws (assuming he doesn't call turn with 100% of his flush draws), 99, 77-55, plus 75s and 54s, we are winning 67% of the time on the river, which is more often than I thought. Even if we broaden the combos of flush draws he is calling on the turn, our equity is probably > 60%.

I would hope it goes check-check on the river a lot of the time.

If we keep the above range, and we speculate that he bets 1/2 pot 100% of the time when he is ahead and also bets 1/2 pot some percentage of the time as a bluff, he has to be making that bluff pretty often (basically 1/3 of the times that he is behind) to make it a break-even call for us.

If he bets 100 he has to be bluffing a lot less, like a little less than 1/6 of the times he misses, to make it a decent call.

Not a lot of players at this level, even those who fit the description of this V, are bluffing often enough to make this a call, imo. I think even if he bets 100 we should frequently c/f absent a strong live read.

Also, it doesn't matter that much whether we think he was more likely to tank-call with a weak made hand or a draw on the turn; once we get to the river, he has to be weighted pretty heavily towards weak made hands AND bluff them pretty often to change the math all that much.

For the same reason, I think a blocking bet is unlikely to add much to our EV.

For example, say we are ahead 67% of the time and behind 33%.

If we check, he will bet 40% of the time. He will bet all his better hands and he will bluff around 10% of his worse hands. We will c/f 100% of the time that he bets.

Our EV in that scenario is $196.20.

Now let's say, again, we have the best hand two out of three times, but this time we elect to make a blocking bet of $100. He will call or raise with all his better hands, and fold all his worse ones.

Our EV in that scenario is (-100)(.33)+(327)(.67) or $189.09.

Even if that blocking bet gets called by, say, 10% of his losing hands, and never raised as a bluff, our EV is only (.33*-100)+(.6*327)+(.07*427) = $193.09.

So he would have to make a weak bluff pretty damn often for us to profitably c/c or execute a blocking bet on this river. And, again, this is in a scenario where we made pretty optimistic assumptions about him flatting two streets with a worse made hand a good % of the time.
ham on rye is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-21-2014, 09:26 AM   #7
AintNoLimit
See my coaching listing
 
AintNoLimit's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: las vegas
Posts: 6,402
Re: 2/5 NL in EP against old man LAG

If he tank called the turn, then betting river wont serve any purpose.

I would check and be forced to read his sizing if he bets.
AintNoLimit is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-21-2014, 09:58 AM   #8
OSUTexan
old hand
 
OSUTexan's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2012
Posts: 1,210
Re: 2/5 NL in EP against old man LAG

Quote:
Originally Posted by Willyoman View Post
OP, you did originally post this with a 863hh flop and turn 4d, river 4h, yes?

If not, then I'm going crazy.
yes, had the 6 and 4 backwards.
OSUTexan is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-21-2014, 11:57 AM   #9
OSUTexan
old hand
 
OSUTexan's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2012
Posts: 1,210
Re: 2/5 NL in EP against old man LAG

Continued:

Hero checks, Villains bets out $200. Hero???
OSUTexan is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-21-2014, 12:52 PM   #10
troloyolo
grinder
 
Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 553
b/f > c/c unless vil will bet all of his hands on the river for whatever reason.

You need to have reads like the one above with or without bey sizing tells before checking isnt a huge mistake. What to do after you made the mistake isnt worth discussing.

Sent from my SGH-I337M using 2+2 Forums
troloyolo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-21-2014, 01:58 PM   #11
Rustacheo
stranger
 
Join Date: May 2014
Posts: 8
Re: 2/5 NL in EP against old man LAG

The way the hand has played out, the V hasn't shown any strength on any street. Has the V raised on the flop with draws in position in previous pots? This is the most important factor to me in determining what to do on the river. Many LAG players will put a semi-bluff raise in on the flop here. The fact that he didn't raise the flop (being a LAG player) would make me less concerned about the flush. I would be more inclined to put him on 99, suited 8X, or a small PP.
If he had turned a straight I would expect a raise on the turn to protect his hand against your very possible A♥️K♥️ or A♥️Q♥️. I think we can eliminate the likelihood of him having a set as he would want to put in a raise at some point to protect his hand.
If it were me I would definitely check the river (betting out here doesn't make any sense IMO) and call any bet of $200 or less. When the scare card (♥️) comes on the river, a LAG player will almost always fire if checked to giving you a chance to get extra value out of your OP. Even if he has 99 or suited 8X he will likely bet to try and get the JJ/QQ/KK to lay down. And if he somehow has the flush or suited A4... "Chips!" :P
Rustacheo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-21-2014, 02:03 PM   #12
ShowdownValue
grinder
 
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 413
Re: 2/5 NL in EP against old man LAG

My friends, I believe it is time for a blocker bet. $85/f nh.
ShowdownValue is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-21-2014, 02:20 PM   #13
djz
veteran
 
Join Date: Apr 2011
Location: doesnt matter, have position
Posts: 2,434
Re: 2/5 NL in EP against old man LAG

Quote:
Originally Posted by OSUTexan View Post
Continued:

Hero checks, Villains bets out $200. Hero???
fold.

i like the suggestion of betting really small on the river and folding to a raise. like betting 50-60 is totally fine here. readless i'd check/fold though.
djz is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-21-2014, 03:48 PM   #14
Willyoman
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Willyoman's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
Posts: 10,468
Re: 2/5 NL in EP against old man LAG

Check/fold is best.

I really don't like the idea of a small b/f.

If villain is good enough to turn a made hand like 65 into a bluff on the river, then he's definitely good enough to raise a super duper weak looking river bet on a flush card.

If we bet small like 50-90 on the river, we're just GIVING AWAY money. With that line, we never have a flush in our range, but villain can rep plenty.

OP already wrote that V: "Appears to be taking advantage when other players are showing weakness."

So check and decide, and I'd just check/fold here. If he's bluffing with 76, 65, A+ to him. Either way, he has a ton of flushes in his range, and the board 6 blocks 1/4 of 76, 65.
Willyoman is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-21-2014, 04:30 PM   #15
jvds
adept
 
Join Date: Apr 2013
Posts: 989
Re: 2/5 NL in EP against old man LAG

bet flop and turn bigger, c/eval depending on sizing now, leaning towards c/c against described
jvds is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-21-2014, 05:45 PM   #16
beauvanlaanen
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
beauvanlaanen's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2013
Posts: 12,490
Re: 2/5 NL in EP against old man LAG

x/f sucks
beauvanlaanen is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-21-2014, 05:46 PM   #17
beauvanlaanen
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
beauvanlaanen's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2013
Posts: 12,490
Re: 2/5 NL in EP against old man LAG

Quote:
Originally Posted by Willyoman View Post
Check/fold is best.

I really don't like the idea of a small b/f.

If villain is good enough to turn a made hand like 65 into a bluff on the river, then he's definitely good enough to raise a super duper weak looking river bet on a flush card.

If we bet small like 50-90 on the river, we're just GIVING AWAY money. With that line, we never have a flush in our range, but villain can rep plenty.

OP already wrote that V: "Appears to be taking advantage when other players are showing weakness."

So check and decide, and I'd just check/fold here. If he's bluffing with 76, 65, A+ to him. Either way, he has a ton of flushes in his range, and the board 6 blocks 1/4 of 76, 65.
how does hero never have a flush...?
beauvanlaanen is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-21-2014, 06:58 PM   #18
djz
veteran
 
Join Date: Apr 2011
Location: doesnt matter, have position
Posts: 2,434
Re: 2/5 NL in EP against old man LAG

lol i bet small here to induce raises all the time. i would do it with a flush a lot. but i would have to know that the villain is aggro.

we can totally have a flush here.

also i will take that line against a nit as a bluff when he is capped at one pair and everything gets there. but since villain here exploits signs of weakness bet small is bad.

i think against the general player pool it's a good move. in a vacuum we will usually get the cheap showdown we want here.
djz is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-21-2014, 07:04 PM   #19
scelsi
old hand
 
Join Date: Sep 2010
Posts: 1,464
Re: 2/5 NL in EP against old man LAG

Given your description of V1, I'm check-calling all shoves, check-folding all value-bets (ie 140-175).
scelsi is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-21-2014, 07:39 PM   #20
beauvanlaanen
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
beauvanlaanen's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2013
Posts: 12,490
Re: 2/5 NL in EP against old man LAG

my bad, didnt see hero action otr
beauvanlaanen is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 01:23 AM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright 2008-2020, Two Plus Two Interactive